TRAN VAN HOA
B.Ec (Hons), M.Ec., Ph.D.
Research Professor, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies,
Director,
Phone: 613 9919 1047, Fax: 613 9919 1350, Email:
jimmy.tran@vu.edu.au
Honorary Professor, National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam
Honorary Professor, National Advanced
Training Institute (NATI), Ministry of Trade, Vietnam
INTERNATIONAL LISTING
|
Who's Who in the World |
Who's Who in Science and Engineering |
|
Who's
Who in |
2000 Outstanding People of the 20th Century |
|
Who's
Who in |
1000 Great Intellectuals of the 21st Century |
|
Dictionary of International Biography |
Australian Who's Who |
|
Living
Legends |
Australian
Directory of Professors |
INTERNATIONAL AWARD & RECOGNITION
Association of
the Korean Economic Studies (AKES) 2004 Best Paper Prize for the article Tran
Van Hoa (2004),"Korea’s Trade, Growth of Trade and the
World Economy in Post-crisis ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement: An Econometric and
Policy Analysis", Journal of the Korean Economy, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 73-108.
For Tran Van Hoa's Recent
Profile in Vietnamese
please click the site below:
Article profiled in Vietnam's Nhan Dan
or (if the above has been moved)
Go to last page of this website
BUSINESS AND CONSULTING EXPERIENCE
|
|
|
|
NSW |
|
|
|
AusAID |
|
Ministry of Commerce ( |
Ministry of Trade ( |
|
Ford Foundation ( |
ACIL-Cardno Australlia |
|
United Nations UNESCAP |
International Consultants Centre ICC, Melbourne |
|
|
United Nations
Development Program ( |
|
International
Development Research Centre ( |
|
AREAS OF TEACHING
|
Microeconomics |
International Finance |
|
Applied and Theoretical Econometrics |
Econometric Modelling and Forecasts |
|
Business Economics in |
Energy Economics |
|
Competition Policy in Asian Economies |
Trade and Investment in |
AREAS OF RESEARCH
|
Macroeconomic Policy |
Development Economics and Growth |
|
Economic Modelling |
Business Forecasting |
|
Business and Public Policy |
ASEAN Economies and its
Enlargement (East Asia |
|
International Business and Trade |
Welfare Economics |
|
Energy Economics |
Consumer Demand Studies |
|
Econometric Theory and Analysis |
International Finance |
|
Production Studies |
Competition Policy in Asian Economies |
|
New Asian Regionalism |
Transition Economies in |
|
Asian Free Trade Agreements and WTO |
Household Production and Economics |
|
Climate Change and
Growth in |
Corruption
and Anti-corruption in |
|
Pro-Poor Development and
Growth in |
|
RECENT BOOKS ON ASIAN ECONOMIES
by TRAN
VAN HOA
1 Tran Van Hoa (ed) (1997), Economic Development and Prospects in the
ASEAN: Foreign Investment and Growth in
3 Tran Van Hoa (with C Harvie) (1997),
4 Tran Van Hoa (ed) (1999), Sectoral
Analysis of Trade, Investment and Business in
5 Tran Van Hoa and C. Harvie (eds) (2000),
Causes and Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis,
6 Tran Van Hoa (ed) (2000), Prospects for
Trade, Investment and Business in
7 Tran Van Hoa (ed) (2000), The Asia Crisis:
The Cures, Their Effectiveness and The Prospects After,
8 Tran Van Hoa,
9 Tran Van Hoa, (2000) The Social Impact
of the Asia Crisis,
10 Tran Van Hoa
(2000),
11 Tran Van Hoa
(2001), The Asia Recovery,
12 Tran Van Hoa
(2002), Economic Crisis Management,
13 Tran Van Hoa
(2003), Competition Policy in Major Asian Economies,
14 Tran Van Hoa and C.
Harvie (2003), New Asian Regionalism: Responses to Globalisation and Crises,
Elgar.
15 Tran Van Hoa
(with C Harvie), The Economic Development in Transition Economies,
16 Tran Van Hoa, P Q
Thao, V T Dung and L H An (2004), Competition Law and Policy in Major Economies
in Asia and
(in Vietnamese), NATI, Ministry of Trade,
17 Tran Van Hoa
(2005), Household Production. Consumer Behaviour and Economic Policy,
18 Tran Van Hoa and
N V Lich (2006), ASEAN+3 and Its Impact on
House, Hanoi, Vietnam.
19 Tran Van Hoa and
N V Lich (2007), Business Opportunities in
20 Tran Van Hoa and
N V Lich (2007), WTO Impact on Regional Vietnam, World Publishing House, Hanoi,
Vietnam.
21 Tran Van Hoa and
C Harvie (2008), Regional Trade Agreements in Asia,
RECENT WORK & ACTIVITIES
ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN ASIA:
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND BEYOND
Keio University, Tokyo, 28-29 November 2009
The global financial crisis (GFC) has, through recent increasing
economic integration and globalisation, started in the US but created
world-wide economic and financial turmoil for developed and especially
developing countries world-wide but especially in Asia, where many economies
have depended on exports and trade in capital and services for their high
development and growth. These
GFC and post-GFC issues and policy responses and choices for East and West Asia
were
explored and discussed by an
international panel of renowned economics and trade experts at the 8th
Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) conference. The conference was organised by Prof Fukunari Kimura, Faculty of Economics, Keio University and Chief Economist, East Asia Summit
Research Institute (ERIA), and with the financial support from Keio University
and the Keio-Kyoto Global COE Program.
APEF is a new international economics society, founded at the
National Kangwon University in Chunchoen, South Korea, in 2001. Its aim is to
carry out and disseminate original and high-quality research on contemporary
and leading-edge issues in international trade, development and growth,
economic integration, economic and trade policy, external relations and
political economy in the Asia-Pacific region. Its membership includes academic and government economic experts
from major countries in North America, the European Union, West Asia or the
Middle East, Asia (East Asia, South East Asia, the Subcontinent) and Oceania. Since its founding, the APEF has
its annual conferences in rotation in its members’ countries. Several
proceedings of the previous APEF conferences have also been published in book
form from international publishers (eg, Edward Elgar, UK).
In the photo below taken at the G-SEC Conference Room, East Building,
Mita campus, Keio University, are some participants at a conference session
In the photo below recording the APEF 2009
Executive Meeting are (from left to right), Prof Mosayeb Pahlavani (Dean, Faculty of Economics, University of
Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran), Prof
Seyed Komail Tayebi (Head, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan,
Iran, and Editor, Journal of International Economics - Iran), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Fukunari Kimura,
Prof Chung-Mo Koo (Kangwon National University, Korea), Prof Zhao Yanyun (Dean, School
of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing), Prof Huyn-Hoon Lee (Senior
Economist, APEC Research Unit, APEC Secretariate, Singapore, and Professor and
former Dean, Kangwon National University, Korea), and Prof Charles Harvie (Director,
Small Business and Regional Research Centre, University of Wollongong,
Australia).
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTRE (IDRC) AND SOUTH EAST
ASIA’S ECONOMIES
AND ENVIRONMENT
17-18 November 2009, Hanoi, Vietnam
Prof Tran Van Hoa was
invited to attend and deliver a Plenary Session Speech “CO2 Emissions-Economic Growth Trade-off
in Vietnam and China for UNFCCC/IPCC Climate Change Policy Analysis” at the
32nd Biannual Workshop of the International Development Research
Centre (IDRC), Economy and Environment Program for South East Asia (EEPSEA), in
Hanoi on 17-18 November 2009.
The Workshop, taking place at the Intercontinental Hotel,
West Lake, was sponsored and organised by the EEPSEA Directorate (based in
Singapore). It is an important event in the EEPSEA yearly activity calendar
where the EEPSEA Directorate and senior economists, consultants, resource
staff, EEPSEA-funded researchers, and other distinguished experts formally meet
to discuss final and interim reports, and new research proposals presented by
academics, government officials and NGO and other researchers in major
countries in the South East Asia region including China and Mongolia (SEA
Plus). At the Workshop, new research themes and direction, and
new advances in supporting research and training technology were also discussed
by international high-reputation keynote speakers. More than 70 experts from the SEA Plus
region, and Australia, Canada and the US, participated in the Workshop.
Founded in May 1993 by David Glover from Canada and currently
managed by a Director (Dr Herminia Francisco), the EEPSEA has received
funding support from a Sponsors Group (currently IDRC, CIDA and Sida) to assist
in research and training capacity enhancement activity on environmental and
resource economics with strong practical policy relevance for young academics,
researchers and upcoming leaders in the SEA Plus region. The EEPSEA has also
earned an enviable reputation in this region for its contribution to research
and training in these fields.
In the photos below taken at the Workshop,
Intercontinental Hotel Ballrooms 2-3, are (Photo 1), from left to right, front
row, Dr Herminia Francisco (EEPSEA Director, Philippines), Dr Orapan
Nabangchang (EEPSEA Senior Economist, Thailand), and Dr Bui Dung The (EEPSEA
Senior Economist, Vietnam), and (Photo 2) some key resource staff and Plenary
Session speakers from Canada, the US, and Australia.
In the photo below taken at the Farewell Dinner at the Sheraton Hotel
in West Lake are, from left to right, Prof Tran Van Hoa, Dr Herminia Francisco, and Associate Professor Dr Nguyen The Chinh (Deputy Director-General, Vietnam
Institute for Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment
(ISPONRE), Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment) .
CLIMATE CHANGE, CO2 EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM
Tran Van Hoa attended the Economic
Analysis of Climate Change Workshop on 26 Sept 2009 in
In his paper, Prof
Tran Van Hoa introduced a new econometric model of CO2 emissions-growth of
In the photos below taken at the
workshop venue, The Flower Garden Hotel in
In the photo below taken at the ISPONRE
Headquarter in Hanoi where future climate change policy and strategy
research development and collaboration between ISPONRE and CSES (Victoria
University) were discussed are, from left to right, Dr Nguyen Van
Tai, 2nd place (Director-General, ISPONRE), Prof Tran Van Hoa, 3rd
place, and Associate Prof Dr Nguyen The Chinh, 4th place (Deputy
Director-General, ISPONRE)
Vietnam Institute for Trade,
Recent strong growth of
The official launch of the ARC 2009-2011 project (the fifth at VIT in the past 15 years) took place at the VIT Headquarter in
Hanoi on 14 July 2009 where the project’s first ARC and VIT-funded and scheduled
workshop to report work in progress in 2009 was also organised. The launch was
co-chaired by Prof Tran van Hoa and attended by
Before the launch, Prof Tran Van Hoa and Prof Dr N V Lich
participated in the official completion and final report of another ARC-VIT funded
2004-2008 project “ASEAN+3 FTA and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade”. The output of this project includes
three books and numerous journal articles and reports which have been widely
disseminated and communicated at workshops, conferences and professional
journals.
In the photo below taken at the 2009-2011 ARC project launch
ceremony at VIT Headquarter are, from left to right, Prof Dr N V Lich (VIT Director-General and ARC Industry
Partner), Mr H T Thanh (VIT ARC Projects Director), Ms Vanessa Wood (Australia’s Vice Ambassador – Deputy Head of Mission, to
Vietnam), and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
In the photo below also taken at the 2009-2011 ARC ceremony at VIT
Headquarter during the speech by
CORRUPTION AND ANTI-CORRUPTION POLICY IN
Tran Van Hoa attended the International Conference
on Evidenced-based Anti-corruption Policy in
Eminent speakers included Mr Abhisit
Vejjajiva (Prime Minister of Thailand), Mr Panthep Klanarongran (NACC
President), Justice Fabio De Pasquale (Chief
Prosecutor, Ministry of Justice, Italy), Ms Annnette Dixon (Country
Director, World bank, Thailand), Dr Richard Messick (World
Bank, Washington D.C, USA), Dr Jean-Pierre Verbiest (Country
Director, Asian Development Bank, Thailand),
Dr Juree Vichit-Vadakam (Director, Transparency International,
Thailand), internationally notable and distinguished academics
and business cummunity, and Commissioners from the national
anti-corruption commission agencies from major countries in the Asian region.
These agencies include the NACC (
As a true international venue for scholarly and practical policy
information, discussion and debate on what is often known as the dark side of
humanity and its activities driven essentially by personal greed and interest
at all three levels of government or
state, corporate and individual governance or management, the conference
attracted a very wide range of papers and speakers covering important
theoretical abstract and practical policy topics of interest to both rich and
developed as well as poor and developing economies alike. These topics include (1)
How to Prosecute High-Level Politicians, (2)
Variety of Corruption and Its Changing Face, (3)
Methodological Conflict in Corruption Perspective and
Activities, (4) Corruption as a Catalyst of Human Rights
Violation in Civil Societies, (5) United Nations Convention Against Corruption
2003, (6) Business-based and Ethics-based Government
Governance and Corruption, (7) Evaluation of Corruption Indicators, (8)
Corruption and Anti-corruption Policy in
Semi-authoritarian as well as Democratic Countries, (9)
Can Income and Assets Declarations by Politicians
Minimise Corruption?, (10) Uses of IT To Reduce Corruption, (11)
Corruption and Integrity in the Agricultural Sector, (12)
the Myth of the Low Development and High Corruption
Nexus Perception on Asia, (13) Government and Corporate Resistance to
Anti-corruption Policy, and (14) the Role of Anti-corruption Agencies in
Major Developing Countries in Asia. The Conference papers will be uploaded on
the NACC website for wider dissemination. Some papers may be published
in the NACC Journal after a peer-review process.
In the photo below taken at the conference
are, from left to right, (first) Prof Medhi Krongkaew
(Commissioner,
In
the photo below taken at the NACC Conference Dinner at Siam City Hotel are,
from left to right, Ms Annette Dixon
(Country Director, World Bank, Thailand), Prof
ASIAN COMMUNITY: FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN
21
March 2009,
Tran Van Hoa attended the international
symposium on financial crisis and economic integration in East Asia
taking place at
In the photo below taken at the symposium
reception dinner at the Central Hotel in Shanghai are, from left to right, Prof
Junfang Xi (3rd, standing), Prof Tran Van Hoa (4th,
Director, Vietnam and East Asia Summit Research Program, Centre for Strategic Economic
Studies, Victoria University, Australia), and Prof Akira Takamasu (7th,
Kansai University and Asian Community Research Center, Osaka Sangyo University,
Japan).
GROWING AUSTRALIA-VIETNAM TRADE RELATIONS INSPITE OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL
CRISES
Marriott Hotel,
Tran Van Hoa attended on 6 March 2009 the
workshop and ambassadorial reception at the Marriott Hotel in Melbourne to
discuss the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) report on the
WTO and Australia-Vietnam Trade Relations and to exchange ideas on ways and means to
improve these relations. The event was hosted by the
In the photo below taken at the
Marriott Hotel are, from left to right, Ms Nguyen Quynh Anh (1st place) , Europe
Market Department, MOIT; Prof Tran Van Hoa (4th); H.E. Nguyen Thanh Tan (5th), Vietnam Ambassador to Australia; Mr
Vu Van Quang (6th), Deputy Director-General, Europe
Market Department, MOIT; and Mr Nguyen Van Chi (10th), Commercial Consul, Vietnam Trade Office in Sydney,
Australia.
PROMOTING
EAST & WEST
2-7 November 2008
Universities of
Sistan & Baluchestan,
During the first week of November 2008, Tran Van Hoa participated in a
series of APEF
(Asia-Pacific Economic Forum) VII conferences at three well-known universities
in
The local organisers
involved in the preparation of the APEF VII conference are Prof Seyed Komail
Tayebi of the University of Isfahan and Dr Mosayeb Pahlavani of the University
of Sistan & Baluchestan in Zahedan, and numerous pan-university and institution
associates. As a significant recognition of the importance of the conference
and its theme in the East and
More than 1300
senior government officials, business people, university staff and students
attended the Opening Ceremony and Keynote Speeches of the APEF VII conference at the University Sistan &
Baluchestan in Zahedan. Experts
from over 10 countries
in Asia, India, Iran, other Middle East countries, Oceania and the European
Union participated to deliver 38 selected research papers (out of a total of
100 papers submitted for presentation) covering a wide range of topics on
trade, economics, finance, technology and management in East and West Asia, and
the impact of the current global financial
crisis. Prof Tran Van Hoa delivered his
keynote speech emphasizing the opportunities and challenges of deepening East
and
A prominent session of the APEF VII conferences at the University of
Sistan & Baluchestan and the University of Isfahan was a Roundtable where keynote speakers and the audience participated
in discussions on major contemporary issues of interest to future policy in
East and West Asia. The issues raised at the session included energy supply,
demand and prices, the importance of small and medium-size enterprises, the
current interest by academic and institutional experts and policy-makers on the
architecture of regional trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region, and most
importantly, the impact
of the US subprime or global financial crisis (GFC) on both developed and
developing economies world-wide. In his discussions, Prof Tran Van Hoa stated that it is too early to assess the wide-spread and deep
damages of GFC,
but he gave an overall evidence-based picture of the potential economic,
financial, ideological and political damages of the GFC in all big and small
economies which many times surpass the decades-long gains from trade
liberalisation and growth, and reform. He also pointed out fortunately that
good and appropriate policy can attenuate these damages and spur future
development and growth, and recommended regional and global co-operation in
finding appropriate solutions on these. In his discussions, Prof Peter Lloyd,
of the Grubel-Lloyd Intra-trade Index fame, also concurred that a rethink of laisser-faire or extreme
capitalism as a model
of modern economic management policy with government support may be necessary.
Prof Ahmad Akbari emphasised the effects of the GFC on economic slowdown and oil revenue of the
OPEC and their contagion to other sectors of
the economy (eg, education in
The photo below records a Roundtable session at the
In the
two photos below taken at the Opening Ceremony and Keynote Speeches in the
Ferdowsi Hall on campus at the University of Sistan & Baluchestan in
Zahedan are some of the 1300 VIP guests and participants.
Some Key Speakers at the APEF VII conference in Zahedan (photo below).
From left to right, sitting, Prof Ahmad Akbari; Prof Peter Lloyd; Prof Tran Van
Hoa; and Prof Hyun-Hoon Lee, Dean of Asia-Pacific Academy and an APEF Founding
Member, Kangwon National University, Korea.
In the photo below taken at the Office of the Vice-Chancellor,
University of Isfahan, are, from left to right, Prof Charles Harvie; Prof
Komail Tayebi, University of Isfahan and APEF Local Chair; Prof Tran Van Hoa;
Prof Hossein Harsij, Vice-Chancellor, University of Isfahan; Prof Peter Lloyd;
and Dr Nazende Ozkaramete Coskun, Bikent University, Turkey.
The
photo below shows some of the audience at the APEF VII conference taking place
at the
ECONOMIC,
TRADE AND POLITICAL ISSUES, AND PRIORITY
25-30 September
2008,
Tran Van Hoa participated recently in three
important high-level academic and policy meetings in
In the photo below taken in the historic
North Hall, Allahabad University, at the end of the Valedictory Session are
some keynote speakers at the conference (from left to right front row, Prof Alka Agarwal, Chair and AU Council Member, Department of Economics, Allahabad
University; Prof Tran Van Hoa; Prof
Rajen Harshe, Vice-Chancellor, Allahabad University; Chief Justice (retired)
Shri Prakash).
And some of the participants at the
conference during the keynote address by Tran Van Hoa.
Prof Tran Van Hoa also participated in a high-level policy RIS-ADB conference Emerging Asian Regionalism: ASEAN-India FTA and Beyond, taking place on 29 Sept 2008 at the
Viceregal, Claridge Hotel, New Delhi, to present his key panel address on India and the ASEAN. The conference was jointly organised by RIS (Research
and Information System for Developing Economies, India’s government-funded top
think-tank) and the ADB (Asian Development Bank) and attended by H E Dr Jairam Ramesh, Minister
of State for Commerce and Power, Dr M Kawai, Dean, ADB Institute in Tokyo,
India's elite government officials and academics, and international embassy and
business representatives.
In his address, Tran Van Hoa gave an account of the recent past record of
India-ASEAN-World economic and trade relations, and, using the recent findings
based on his endogenous gravity theory, explored these relations’ opportunities, obstacles, and prospects within
the framework of a plurilateral India-ASEAN FTA, and the East Asia Summit FTA
as proposed currently by the 16 EAS leaders. At the conference, the ADB launched its new publication Emerging
Asian Regionalism: A Partnership for Shared Prosperity, in which some aspects of integration of
production, trade, financial markets, and FDI in the ASEAN Plus were
particularly paid attention to. The conference was widely reported by the
media.
In the photos below taken at the Viceregal
Hall, Claridge Hotel, in New Delhi, during the RIS-ADB conference are some
keynote speakers (Dr Rajesh
Kumar, Director-General, RIS; Dr M Kawai, Dean, ADB Institute; Dr Srinivasa
Madhur, Director, OREI, ADB).
And some of the participants.
In New Delhi, Professor Tran Van Hoa also gave a seminar
on 30 Sept 2008 to staff and postgraduate students of the Centre for International Trade and Development of the Jawaharlal
Nehru University (India’s
top university) to
talk about the development of his endogenous gravity theory and its
applications to India’s and ASEAN’s economic and trade issues particularly in a
present climate of energy and financial crises, and to offer possible
solutions. The visit to the JNU was organised by Prof B B Bhattacharya, JNU Vice-Chancellor
and a noted economist and adviser to
In the photo below taken at the JNU seminar
are, front row, Prof
Tran Van Hoa and Prof Geeta Agarwal (Chairperson, CITD), and some postgraduate students.
20-21
June 2008
Korea
Institute of Public Finance,
Tran
Van Hoa attended the
Korea and the World Economy Conference VII in Korea during 20-21 June 2008 to deliver his research paper
on the currently proposed
Australia-Korea Free Trade Agreement, and to discuss papers at a plenary session on Official Development Assistance -
Korea and the Developing Countries. The conference (in the series established at
In the photo below at the farewell function at the Santorini in
Chunchoen are (from left to right) Prof Huyn-Hoon
Lee (Dean, Asia-Pacific Co-operation Academy, Kangwon
National University;
local organiser), Prof Chung-Moo Koo (President, AKES;
local organiser), Dr Bongkee Hahn (Vice Governor, Gangwon Provincial Government), Prof Sven W Arndt (Claremont McKenna College, USA), and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
INNOVATION
& TECHNOLOGY IN
POLICY MODELLING TRAINING FOR ACADEMICS AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS
2 May 2008,
While the role of econometric modelling for policy analysis (using say
the methods of growth regression, panel regression,
structural equation modelling, and CGE/GTAP) has been recognised and used in most developed and
Western countries world-wide, an appropriate modelling methodology with more
credible or realistic outcomes for use by corporate and government
policy-makers in both developed and developing countries alike is still to be
developed. A new development with improved features and outcomes in this field
is the Generalised Gravity Theory proposed in
2002 and used successfully since by Tran Van Hoa (eg, see the Journal of the Korean Economy, 2004) in many practical applications on economic, trade,
FDI and service studies in Asian economies (eg, China, India, Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam)
in recent years. This advanced modelling tool has now been
officially adopted by the Government of
In the
photo below taken at the training course are Prof Tran Van Hoa (second from left) and some participants.
INNOVATION
AND TECHNOLOGY
AND
THEIR IMPACT IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
21-23 April 2008, United
Tran Van Hoa attended the Second Conference of Micro Evidence
on Innovation in Developing Economies (MEIDE), on 21-23 April, 2008, at the
Renmin University of China in Beijing, to deliver a paper on the Impact
of Innovation &Technology Public Expenditure on Development in China and
India: An International Comparative Study, and to chair a session. The
Conference was jointly organised by the
In the
photo below taken at the end of the conference and in front of the Run Run Shaw
Conference Centre at
BASIC
PUBLIC SERVICES EQUALISATION IN
AN
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
China Institute
for Reform and Development (CIRD), 22-23 Feb 2008,
Tran
Van Hoa was invited to attend the international conference Basic Public Services for 1.3 Billion
People during 22-23 Feb 2008 in Haikou to present his paper on China's Education and Development and Its Comparative
Efficiency Competitiveness with one of China's major economic and trade rivals
in the region, India. The
conference was organised by one of China's think-tanks, the China Institute for Reform and Development
(CIRD), and with the collaboration of China International Centre for Economic and
Technical Exchanges (CICETE) and the United Nations Development Program
(China). A wide range of 'hot'
topics on major aspects of public services in China, covering education, health
care, rural and regional development, urban-rural gaps, legal foundation, tax
reform, and social security, were discussed and debated by more than 250 senior academics and
government officials (including two Vice Ministers) from all over China and 17
international experts (eg, from Australia, France, Sweden, the UK), UNDP
Resident Representative and Senior Economist. The conference proceedings were nationally televised and reported by 21 mass media
networks. In his paper and
discussions, Prof Tran Van Hoa emphasised the importance of not only public
services input and capacity equalisation but, more significantly, their
outcomes and efficiency evaluation (a new policy research direction mentioned
at the conference by the UNDP
(China) Representative, Mr Khalid Malik, and endorsed by Vice-Minster of
National Population and Family Planning Commission, Dr Zhao Baige), and the relevance of regional competitiveness (in
this case, India's education and health care) in a globalised economy where
China is playing an increasingly influential role.
In the photo below taken at the
Two photos showing some of the national and international participants
at the Conference.
IN MINISTERIAL TRADE
POLICY RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT
8-20 December
2007, Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT),
Prof Tran Van Hoa of the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES),
Faculty of Business & Law, Victoria University, led, during 8-20 December
2007, a number of Australian Research Council-funded workshops in major cities and provinces of
Vietnam to present his work with the Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT),
Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), on implementing improvements in economic
and trade policy in
the country. The workshops were organised by VIT (an Industry Partner in a
2004-2007 ARC Linkage Project) on Australia-Vietnam Trade, co-managed by VIT Director-General, Prof Dr Nguyen Van Lich), and endorsed by H.E. Nguyen Van Linh, Vietnam Vice-Minister of Trade.
The workshops were
attended by senior university and trade college executives and academics,
senior government officials, and select postgraduate students. The work
involves the implementation of a new modelling policy approach, the so-called generalised gravity theory (GGT) introduced
by Tran Van Hoa in 2002, that provides significant improvements in modelling
outcomes and policy credibility and reliability to existing and popular approaches that are
currently used in this field by national and international institutions (e.g.,
universities and research institutes) and organisations (e.g., the World Trade
Organisation, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Asian
Development Bank). A description
of the GGT is given in an award-winning article in 2004 in the Journal of the
Korean Economy, published by
At the
workshops, the participants were introduced to the work's preliminary research
and findings, and informed of MOIT decision to adopt the GGT methodology for
economic and trade analysis and implementation at the practical and operational
level by the Ministry.
The decision is highly significant for global government governance in the
sense of how relevant and quality government policy background support in
In the photo
below taken at the meeting at the MOIT Headquarter in Hanoi on 20 December 2007
are H.E. Nguyen Van Linh, Vice-Minister of Trade (on the left), and Prof Tran
Van Hoa.
A record photo
of the ARC-VIT workshop at the VIT Headquarter in
A record photo
of the ARC-VIT workshop at
A record photo
of the ARC-VIT workshop at the College of Foreign Economic Relations, MOIT and
Ministry of Education and Training, Ho Chi Minh City, Southern Vietnam: Prof
Tran Van Hoa (left), and College Rector, Prof Dr Pham Chau Thanh (second from
left), and College academics and government participants.
A record photo
of the ARC-VIT workshop at the Provincial Office of Trade and Tourism, MOIT, Da
Lat, Highland
A record photo
of the ARC-VIT workshop at
and
FOR TWO GIANTS
IN
25-27 October
2007,
Tran Van Hoa
attended the 90th Indian
Economic Association Conference at Kashmir University in India on 25-27 October
2007 to present his recent research findings
on China-India trade relations and their impact
on India's growth, 'Look East' policy, economic diplomacy and regional
cooperation. Since its
devastating balance of payments crisis in the early 1990s,
In the photo
below taken on campus in the Science Block at Kashmir University are, from left
to right, Prof G K Chadha (Member of the Economic Advisory Council to
the Prime Minister, and former Vice-Chancellor, Jawaharlal Nehru University,
Delhi), Prof Tran Van Hoa, and Prof B B Bhattacharya (Vice-Chancellor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi, and 2007
President, Indian Economic Association)
The photo below
taken at the Opening
Ceremony at the
Convocation Complex at Kashmir University are Prof A Wahid
(Vice-Chancellor,
rEGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN
Issues in
31 July 2007,
While regional
economic integration has been strongly supported by the governments in the
ASEAN Plus region to promote trade, economic growth, poverty reduction and co-operation,
major issues such as trade, investment and
services in a bilateral framework between China and Vietnam for example in an AFTA Plus scheme have
not been adequately studied in detail or reported at both the academic and
policy level. These issues were taken up by VIT and other ministries and
academic and research institutions in
In the photo
below taken at the workshop are, from left to right, Prof Dr Nguyen Van Lich (Director-General, VIT, and ARC Linkage
Industry Partner), Dr
Nguyen Manh Hung
(Prime Minister Office), Ho
Trung Thanh (standing, ARC
Linkage Project Manager, VIT), Prof Dr Nguyen Van Thanh (Vice Director-General, VIT), H E Le Van Dinh (Vice Minister, MOT), Prof Tran Van Hoa (ARC Linkage Chief Investigator and Director, Vietnam
and ASEAN Plus Research Program, Victoria University, Australia), Prof Dr Nguyen Mai (hidden, Ministry of Science and
Environment), and Prof
Dr Nguyen Van Huong
(former President, National Economics University, Hanoi).
In the photo
below are some of the participants including the media representatives at the
workshop.
Issues in a
Korea-Australia FTA and Regional ODA
2-3 July 2007,
Tran Van Hoa attended the Korea and The World Economy International
Conference VI: Towards Asian Economic Community at the University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia, on 2-3 July 2007, to
present a paper on Official
Development Assistance (ODA) Effectiveness in Asia. Since the current debates on ODA effectiveness or
ineffectiveness have been based on aspects of political economy or
methodologies that have been regarded as simple or inadequate, the paper
provides a new and suitable modelling approach and substantive empirical
findings to improve the quality of the debates. The issue is important as in
2005, ODA reached $US107 billion and current and former senior World Bank
experts and consultants (eg, Sachs and Easterly) working on the area are not
sure about the ODA benefits and the effectiveness of ODA modus operandi. The
Korea and The World Conference series, organised principally by Korea's largest
economics association, the
Association of the Korean Economic Studies (AKES), started in Korea in 2001 by a group of international
academic economists, trade experts and government officials to research on
major issues in Korea and their implications and relations to the rest of the
world. About 50 people from 17 countries around the world participated in the
Conference which also attracted local and national media. Major issues in the
currently negotiated Korea-Australia FTA were also a major topic at the
Conference.
In the photo
below (Tran Van Hoa, second from right) taken at the foyer of the
Communications Centre at Wollongong University before the Conference are AKES
Council Members, key participants and local and AKES organisers.
Eminent participants at the Korea and The
World Conference VI include H E Mr
Chang-Boem Cho, Korea Ambassador to Australia (right, photo at the Novotel below) and Prof Robert Castle, Deputy
Vice-Chancellor, Wollongong University, left), and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
The photo below taken in front of the
MacKinnon (a former Vice-Chancellor at Wollongong University) Building after
the farewell lunch at the Food Re-Thought restaurant at Wollongong University
shows some of the participants.
WHAT ARE NEW IN
THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION?
30 June-1 July
2007,
While in Wollongong, Tran
Van Hoa also attended, as an Executive Member and speaker, the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF)
International Conference VI, with
the theme Asian
Regionalism: Issues, Opportunities, Challenges and Outcomes, where he presented a paper on International Economic Integration in Asia:
AFTA and WTO Memberships. The paper is
acutely relevant to the current development in the Asia-Pacific and Oceania
regions where, with the suspension of the WTO Doha Round negotiations in SARS
Hong Kong in 2006, free trade agreements among neighbouring countries have been
strongly promoted by major countries for mutual benefits. APEF is a new
economics association founded in Chuncheon, Korea, in 2001, and has a wide
international academic, government and industry membership and with an
Asia-Pacific (in contrast with the World Economic Forum) focus agenda.
Participants from 9 countries in East Asia, West Asia and
In the photo
below taken at
Business and
Investment in
21-23 May 2007,
Vietnam Institute for Trade, Ministry of Trade,
With its WTO membership on
11 January 2007 after over 12 years of tortuous negotiations, Vietnam is set to
integrate more boldly and more competitively into the world market to increase
its shares of exports and FDI, to enhance its sustainable growth, and to
strengthen its external economic relations. This 150th WTO membership also projects
ISSUES IN
AUSTRALIA-KOREA RELATIONS AND FTA
26 March 2007,
Myer Asia Institute,
Tran Van Hoa attended a meeting with H E Chang Beom Cho, Korea Ambassador to Australia, at a get-to-know event organised by the Asialink network of the Myer Asia Institute,
The photo below taken at the Myer Asia
Institute boardroom are Prof Tran Van Hoa and H
Australia-China Free Trade Agreement:
Issues in Regional Development and Substantive Policy Support
17-18 March 2007. Renmin
Prof Tran Van Hoa attended
the international conference on Australia-China
Free Trade Agreement: Regional Development Issues and Modelling Policy taking place in Beijing on 17-18 March 2007 to deliver a keynote address (Title: AFTA and WTO Memberships: Challenges, Opportunities and Choice) on the progress, outcomes and benefits of regional trade agreements in
Asia (such as the ACFTA) and the actual substantive gains (or a lack of them)
from WTO memberships. The conference was sponsored by AusAID-ISSS, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs
and Trade (DFAT), and supported and locally organised by three Beijing
universities: the Renmin University of China (RUC), the Central University of
Finance and Economics (CUFE), and the Capital University of Economics and
Business (CUEB). The Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES) at
More than 40 trade,
economic, population and agricultural academics and government officials from Australia, India, Vietnam, Beijing universities and a number of
north-west and north-east provincial universities in China participated in the conference. A wide range of research work and
findings by these experts on
In the photo
below taken at the ACFTA Conference are, from left to right and sitting, Dr Bui Anh Tuan (Institute of World Economy, Vietnam), Dr Pham Lan Huong (Deputy Head, Economic Integration
Department, Ministry of Planning and Investment, Vietnam), Prof Charles Harvie (Director, SME
Research Centre, University of Wollongong, Australia), Prof Tran Van Hoa (Director, Vietnam and ASEAN Plus Research
Program, Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia), Prof
While in
WTO
and ASEAN FTA: Expectations and Outcomes
4-5 December 2006, NATI, Ministry of Trade,
The aspirations
of many countries in the world to be members of the WTO (an off-shoot of GATT, GATS, TRIMS, TRIPS and with recent added-on
income equality and poverty alleviation), to make sometimes painful and long-negotiated commitments and to
carry out 'hard' reforms are well-known especially for developing countries in
Prof Tran Van
Hoa recently attended the 2006 Asian Forum on
Business Education (AFBE,
based in Thailand) organised by the National Advanced
Training Institute (NATI), Vietnam Ministry of Trade, in Hanoi, to deliver a keynote speech in which he
presented some new international substantive evidence on these gains and
outcomes for Asian economies (Andrew Rose in
his 2004 American Economic Review paper
reported similar evidence for other countries). This evidence shows pure and simple that an AFTA membership (which is
not beset by
In the photo taken at the
opening of the 2006 AFBE conference at the NATI Conference Centre are, from
left to right, Assoc Prof Dr Pham Quang Thao (NATI Rector and Local Organiser);
HE Vice Minister of Trade, Mr Tran Duc Minh; Prof Dr Brian Sheehan (President,
AFBE); Dr. Wahdi Salasi April Yuhdi (Deputy Director, The Southeast Asian
Ministers of Education Organization (SAMEO)); and Prof Dr Tran Van Hoa
In the photo below taken
at the closing of the 2006 AFBE conference at NATI in
WTO,
30
November 2006, Institute of Economic Studies,
Prof Tran Van Hoa participated,
on 30 Nov 2006, in an ARC Linkage Project Workshop on the WTO, Regional Trade Agreements and Their Impact on
Tran Van Hoa pointed out that
while high expectations are legitimate for new WTO members, the positive outcomes,
from international evidence,
may be relatively small, and, from recent historical
events in the region, they are also strongly associated with risks (such
as domestic turmoil and inappropriate reform policies, regional and global
shocks). He called for caution and reservation by policy-makers about the
hyped-up outcomes by WTO-oriented advocates and consultants arising from a WTO
membership and focus instead on the fundamental issues of
competitiveness and comparative advantages in international trade and commerce
to support sustainable development and regional economic relations.
In the photo below
taken at the conclusion of the Workshop at the IES are, from left to right, Assoc
Prof Dr Nguyen Van Lich (Director General, VIT, and ARC Linkage Partner
Investigator), Prof Dr Tran Van Hoa (ARC Linkage Chief Investigator), Dr Tran
Du Lich (Director, IES), and Assoc Prof Dr Tran Dinh Thien (Institute of
Economics, Hanoi)
The photo below shows some
participants at the Workshop
WTO and Asian Economic Integration: What Regional and Provincial
Economies Gain?
11 August 2006,
While the
negotiations for WTO and FTA memberships focus on national or aggregate benefits (and losses),
concerns are ripe about the realisation of these benefits (and losses) at the
grass-roots, provincial or regional level. It is accepted generally that WTO
and FTA memberships, often after long and hard negotiations lasting many years,
can bring about more trade, enhanced development and growth, welfare
improvement and poverty reduction, otherwise the aspiring countries will not
sign the agreements. It is also clear that not all regions and
sectors of a member country can uniformly gain from the memberships. In fact, some sectors and regions will lose This
painful truth is found both in developed (such as
To investigate
this imbalance of gains and losses from WTO or FTA memberships, Tran Van Hoa
organised a workshop on 11 August 2006 in the ancient imperial
city of
In the photo
below taken at the openning of the workshop at the Dien Bien Hotel in Hue, Central Vietnam, are, from left to right, Dr Nguyen Van Lich (Director-General, Vietnam
Institute for Trade, Ministry of Trade, ARC Project Industry Partner), Dr Nguyen Tan Thien (Vice-Chairman,
People's Committee of the Thua Thien-Hue Province), Prof Tran Van Hoa (Director, Vietnam and ASEAN+
Research Program, Victoria University, Melbourne, ARC Project Leader), and Prof
Tran Than Quoc (Institute of World Economics, Hanoi).
WTO and Asian FTA Commitments
7-10 August 2006, Ministry of Trade,
Prof Tran Van Hoa recently participated in a series of Policy Advising
Workshops and a Dissemination Seminar organized by ACIL-Cardno and Department
of Planning and Investment (DPI), Vietnam Ministry of Trade (MOT), in
The workshops, taking place in Hanoi
during 7-9 August 2006, were designed to assist a select group of Vietnam trade
officials and academics in carrying out relevant research (1) to prepare
available trade options (training) and (2) to propose effective implementable
trade policies (mentoring) of the country’s major negotiated commitments under
its general economic integration but especially under its forthcoming WTO
membership. The specific commitments under study in this
round cover (a) import control measures, (b) distribution services and (c)
subsidies and countervailing measures. These commitments and, more importantly, their economic, trade,
environment and social implications are currently of high priorities managed by
MOT as its ministerial functions.
The final research reports were presented
at the dissemination seminar (chaired by the Deputy Director-General of DPI, Dr
Hoang Thinh Lam) for discussion and media exposure on 10 August 2006 at the
Melia Hotel in
In the photo of some participants below
taken at the dissemination seminar at the Melia Hotel in Hanoi, on 10 August
2006, are (from left to right, front row) Dr Pham Quang Thao (Rector, National
Advanced Training Institute, MOT), Prof Tran Van Hoa (Research Professor and
Director, Vietnam and ASEAN+ Research Program, Victoria University, Melbourne,
Australia), Mr Nguyen Quang Anh (Program Officer, AusAID, Australian Embassy,
Hanoi) and Ms Susan McKeag (First Secretary, AusAID, Australian Embassy,
Hanoi).
7-8
July 2006,
Tran Van Hoa
participated in the Korea and the World Economy V: Korea and
the FTA Conference put on by the Association of the Korean Economic
Studies (AKES), Korea Development Institute, Korea University-BK21-Economics,
Korea Institute of Finance (KIF) and Washington University (Seattle, USA) at
Korea University in Seoul on 7-8 July 2006 to deliver a paper on the impact of economic reforms and global shocks on the Korea economy and
trade and to discuss papers presented. While at
the
The photo
below taken at the Award Ceremony in the Conference Room of Korea University
shows Prof Tran Van Hoa receiving the 2004 Best Paper Award Plaque, looked on by the President of AKES, Prof Sung Tae Ro.
Asia-Pacific
Economic Forum (APEF) V Conference,
United
Nations Economic and Social Commission for the
5-6 July 2006,
Tran Van Hoa attended the APEF V Conference to deliver a paper on the gains
and losses of an Australian-China free trade agreement which is
currently (2006) under negotiation between the governments of
While in Chuncheon, Prof Tran Van
Hoa also participated in the training course for sustainable development
for young leaders from the Asia Pacific organised by Kangwon National
University, Koica and UNESCAP in Bangkok. A total of 20 government officials and
media representatives from 14 Asia Pacific countries attended the training
course.
In the photo below
taken at the KNU training centre in Chuncheon are the UNESCAP-KNU Asia-Pacific
trainees and Prof Tran Van Hoa (5th from right, second row).
WTO,
24-26 June 2006
Tran Van Hoa was an invited speaker
at the WTO,
In the photo
below taken at a welcoming dinner at the Ting Li Guan Restaurant in the Royal Summer Palace in Beijing are Prof Guijun Lin, Vice-President of
UIBE, and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
AUSTRALIA-MALAYSIA: A
DIFFICULT RELATIONSHIP?
2 June 2006, Windsor Hotel,
In
spite of their similar political structures, geographical nearness, historical
links, and the economic, social and regional cooperation successes of Malaysia
in the past few decades, the relationship between Australia and Malaysia has not been easy in recent
years at both the commercial and highest political levels. Attention in both countries is needed to improve
this relationship for mutual benefits especially with the introduction of the 9th
At the
Forum, Prof Tran Van Hoa raised the question on the recent (Kuala Lumpur, 14 December 2005) proposed enlargement of the ASEAN to include
Australia and New Zealand (among other major trading blocs) after Australia decided
to sign, after a long delay, the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, and the view, if any, of Malaysia about the
potential costs, benefits or problems of this regional membership and its
impact on the relationship between Australia and Malaysia. This is in the
context of a difficult relationship between the two countries in the past.
In the photo below taken at the Windsor Hotel are, from left to right,
Prof Tran Van Hoa, Malaysia Foreign Minster, the Hon. Dato Seri Syed Hamid
Albar, and Ms Elisabeth Hames-Brooks (Honorary Fellow, Monash Asia Institute).
A DIPLOMATIC CONCLUSION
26 May 2006,
Sidney Myer Asia Centre,
Vietnam’s new
(since November 2005) ambassador
to Australia, HE Nguyen Thanh Tan, accompanied by his First Secretary, Mr
Nguyen Van Nhat,
visited Melbourne on 26 May 2006 to deliver his first public lecture in
Victoria on Vietnam’s recent economic achievements, reforms, growing trade with
Australia (worth $A3,896 million in 2005), and prospects after the country’s 10th
Party Congress taking place in Hanoi last April. The visit was organised by the Asia Link in collaboration with the
Department of Political Science at the
Prof Tran Van Hoa attended
the lecture and participated
in the discussion on
In the photo below taken at the Yasuko Hiraoka Myer Room at the
Sidney Myer Asia Centre, University of Melbourne, are, from left to right, Ms
Kieu Thanh (Ph D Research Scholar, Faculty of Business and Law, Victoria
University), HE Nguyen Thanh Tan (Vietnam Ambassador to Australia), Prof Tran
Van Hoa, and Ms Elisabeth Hames-Brooks (Honorary Fellow, Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University).
WTO MEMBERSHIP AND ASEAN FTA:
IMPACT ON
Prof Tran Van
Hoa recently participated in the 2006 Regional Progress Workshop, organised by the consulting firm ACIL (Australia) as part of the Trade Analysis and Reform Project (TARP) funded by the Australian Government's
AusAID over the period 2005-08, to assist in
capacity-building of government officials in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and
Vietnam, to prepare and manage their countries' WTO accession negotiations and implementation. A total of 11 research projects of high-priority
national interest and specifically dealing with trade and reforms in the
context of the WTO and ASEAN free trade agreements were selected by these
countries senior government officials for analysis. At the workshop, about 30
government officials were present to report their research progress and to
receive feedback from TARP consultants (trainers, mentors and project managers)
which included business consultants, well-known academics and senior government
officials from Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the US, the UK and Hong
Kong.
In the photo
below taken at the closing of the Workshop in the Crystal Ballroom of Holiday
Inn in Silom Road, Bangkok, are (first row, from left to right) Prof Tran Van
Hoa (Vietnam Mentor, 4th place), Bill Bowen (Laos Mentor, 6th), Ms Raviprapa
Srisartsanarat (TARP Project Manager, AusAID, Australian Embassy, Bangkok,
8th), Alan Oxley (Vietnam Trainer, ITS, 9th), and Sam Chittick (TARP Project
Manager, ACIL, 14th).
AUSTRALIA-CHINA FREE TRADE
AGREEMENT:
WHO GAINS AND WHO LOSES?
Capital
Regional free trade agreements (FTAs) have
proliferated in
In response to this lack of substantive
research and information for informed debates, Tran
Van Hoa, with the funding support from Australia Department of Foreign Affairs,
AusAID-ISSS Division, and China high-level academic institutions, led
a group of ASEAN and Australia experts on regional FTAs to participate in a 2-day 2-university conference and experts symposium
in Beijing to report on important new research work
by ASEAN, Australian and Chinese experts on sectoral, regional and national
gains and losses of an ACFTA to improve informed trade analysis and trade
policy by the two countries. Over 25 and 70 ASEAN, Australian and Chinese
academics and experts attended the CUBE experts symposium and the RUC
conference respectively.
The photo below taken at the
Opening Address given by the Local Organiser, Prof Yanyun Zhao, at the ACFTA
Conference in the School of Statistics Building on RUC campus on 18 April 2006
shows some of the participants.
In the photo below
are, from left to right, (2nd to 7th) Prof
TRADE ANALYSIS
AND REFORM PROJECT (TARP) FOR
Tran Van Hoa recently joined an international
team of trainers and mentors to provide high-level training and research
capacity-building on the WTO/FTA and its practical policy implementation for
government officials in
In the photo below are some members of the
TARP trainer and mentor team after the Briefing Session at the Sofitel Hotel
Central Plaza in Bangkok, Thailand: (from left to right) Bill Dymond (Director,
Centre for Trade Policy and Law, Carlton University, Canada), Alan Oxley
(Managing Director, Monash University APEC Study Centre), Bill Bowen (Principal
Consultant, ITS Global, Melbourne), Prof Tran Van Hoa (CSES and Director,
Vietnam and ASEAN+ Research Program, Victoria University, Melbourne,
Australia), and Dr Razeen Sally (ISEAS, Singapore).
The TARP briefings in
A New Approach
to Better Study the Impact of the WTO Membership and Free Trade Agreements:
International Recognition
30 January 2006,
The WTO membership and its subsets, regional free
trade agreements (FTAs), are considered world-wide the main frameworks to
promote trade, development, growth and welfare improvement for member
countries. However, the benefits (and costs) of these frameworks are usually
perceived in official negotiations and expert debates leading to a WTO/FTA
membership more as an article of faith (in free-market economics) than as hard
or reliable substantive empirical evidence. The importance of more reliable
empirical evidence on this impact of the WTO and FTAs is recognised in the form
of the 2004 Best Paper Prize awarded recently by the Association of the Korean Economic Studies (AKES) to a journal article written by Prof Tran Van Hoa, Korea’s Trade, Growth of Trade and the World Economy in Post-crisis
ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement: An Econometric and Policy Analysis, Journal of the Korean Economy, 2004, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 73-108. Online
access:www.akes.or.kr/jke/index.htm. The paper introduces the Generalised
Gravity Theory and a new modelling and impact study approach (with superior
properties to existing quantitative methodologies adopted by some academics and
international organisations such as the IMF, the World Bank, and the Asian
Development Bank) to investigate and causally explain Korea's spectacular
ups-and-downs economic performance in the past 30 years.
ASEAN,
Monash Asia
Institute,
Regional economic integration (EI) and free trade
agreements (FTAs) have proliferated in Asia and Oceania in recent years,
resulting in, for example, the current AFTA, ASEAN+3, Australia-Thailand,
Australia-Singapore, Japan+Singapore, and the proposed ASEAN+Australia,
ASEAN+India and ASEAN+Russia. The ASEAN+ FTAs in particular are important for
South East Asian countries in their regional strategic alignment to promote
growth, investment, services, economic relations and co-operation, and
political dialogue. These issues and the implications of the economic
performance and sustainability of China and India or China vis-ŕ-vis India were
discussed by Prof B.B. Bhattacharya, the new Vice-Chancellor of India’s
prestigious postgraduate university, Jewaharlal Nehru University (JNU), at a
recent seminar on India as an Emerging Economic Power:
Constraints and Imperatives at Monash Asia Insitute
on 19 January 2006. (It is important to note that one of the JNU’s
long-established traditions is that JNU’s Vice-Chancellors are appointed by the
President of
In the photo taken before the seminar
at the
Methodologies to Measure the Impact of Free Trade Agreements and the WTO
6 December 2005,
Hanoi, Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT), Ministry of
While there are many
ways, from simple to sophisticated, to measure the effects of economic policy
and change, and global co-operation, existing methods such as the CGE/GTAP or gravity theory,
while popular and useful, may not be appropriate for robust and realistic
outcomes because of their structural restrictions and data limitations. A
survey of these methods and other new and more reliable approaches (such as the
Generalised Gravity Theory proposed in 2002
by Tran Van Hoa and applied extensively) was provided by
Tran Van Hoa recently when he attended the Australian Research Council-VIT
workshop, organised by the 2004-07 ARC Linkage Industry Partner, VIT, in Hanoi,
to deliver a lead lecture on recent methodologies to evaluate the benefits and
costs of free trade agreements (FTAs) and the WTO membership. The workshop was
also used as a venue for capacity-building for government officials in
In the photo below
taken at the Conference Centre at the VIT Headquarter, 46 Ngo Quyen, Hanoi,
are, from left to right, Doctoral Scholar Ho Trung Thanh, (Head, Research
Department, VIT), Dr Pham Lan Huong (Head, Economic Integration Department,
Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), Ministry of Planning and
Investment), Prof Tran Van Hoa (ARC Linkage Project Leader), and Prof Dr Nguyen
Van Lich (Director-General, VIT, and ARC Linkage Industry Partner).
Asian Forum on Business Education
30 Nov-2 Dec 2005,
The ways business
has been conducted in major Asian countries in recent years were discussed at
the 10th Asian Forum on Business Education
(AFBE) conference organised by the Faculty of Management Sciences at
Ubonrajathani University in north-east Thailand during 30 Nov-2 Dec 2005. More than 50 experts, academics, corporate executives, and MBA and DBA
students from major countries in Asia, Australasia, Europe and
In the photo taken at
the conference venue, the Tor Sang Hotel, are, from left to right, Prof Dr
Apichai Puntasen (Dean, Faculty of Management Sciences, Ubonrajathani
University), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Prakob Wirojanagud (President,
Ubonrajatani University), and Prof Brian Sheehan (President and Secretary,
AFBE)
The photo below shows
some of the participants at the Opening Ceremony of the 10th AFBE conference.
Issues of Trade, Development, Investment, Cooperation, and Integration in an Enlarged ASEAN
Centre
for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES),
24-25
November 2005, Victorian Arts Centre,
Tran Van Hoa convened and organised an
important high-level international conference on 24-25 November 2005 at the
Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES),
Funded by the Australian Government’s AusAID
and the Faculty of Business and Law, the conference attracted eminent
economists and speakers from major countries in an enlarged ASEAN region. These
include
Interest was also shown by such organisations in
The special focus of the conference was to discuss major issues in trade in
merchandise goods, services (including education and finance), investment,
across- and inside-border economic integration, corporate culture in
international business, poverty reduction through trade, the effectiveness of
ODA-related micro-finance programmes, the role of SMEs and agriculture (a major
obstacle in on-going WTO negotiations), issues of intellectual properties (eg,
pharmaceuticals), issues of large trade surplus for Asian economies, and
regional economic relations and cooperation between enlarged ASEAN members.
Some of these are timely and major issues for presentation and discussion in
the forthcoming agenda of the First East Asia Summit by enlarged ASEAN Heads of
State and hosted by the Government of Malaysia taking place on 13-14 December
2005 in
In the photo below taken at the Conference Opening Ceremony at the
Amcor-Commonwealth Bank Suites at the Victorian Arts Centre are, from left to
right, Prof
In the photo below are some of the participants attending the
conference.
The photo below,
taken at the Vice-Chancellor Conference Suite at Victoria University Melbourne
City Campus, shows some of the participants at the roundtable discussion of the
First East Asia Summit
and other trade, investment, services, and economic co-operation issues.
Impact of Asian Free Trade Agreements and the WTO on
10-13 November 2005
Dong Bei (North-East) University
of Finance and Economics (DUFE),
Four
in a network of a total of 30 Universities of Business, Economics and Finance
in China recently held an international conference Statistical Modelling and Regional Economic Development in West China at the Capital (Beijing) University of Business and
Economics (CUBE), Beijing, to discuss economic
development issues in North-East, North-West, Central West and South-West
China, and the impact of Asian free trade agreements and the WTO on this
regional development. Tran Van
Hoa was a keynote speaker at this conference which was funded by businesses and
the local and central governments. The conference attracted more than 60
participants from all regions in
In the photo below are, from left
to right, Prof Hong Ji (Head of the Statistics Department, CUBE, and Local
Organiser), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Wenju Wang (Vice President, CUBE), and Prof
Yanyun Zhao (Director. Center for Competitiveness Studies, and
In the photo below are
Prof Tran Van Hoa (5th from left, first row, standing) and Prof Charles Harvie
(6th, Director, SME Research Centre, University of Wollongong) with some
participants in front of the Conference Centre at the Winterless Hotel in
Beijing.
The photo below shows
some of the audience at the Special Sunday Lecture given by Prof Tran Van Hoa at Dong Bei (literally East North)
How to Measure More Reliably the Rural Impact of Asia-Australia Free Trade Agreements
19 October 2005, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia
Tran Van Hoa was invited to visit the Faculty
of Commerce at
In
the photo taken at the seminar are, from left to right, Associate Prof Kishor
Sharma (Sub Dean, International Research), Prof Tran Van Hoa,
Prof Eddie Oczkowski, and Chris Deely
(Seminar Convenor)
Measuring
Women's Worth in Society and the Economy
28
September 2005,
Women's contribution
to society and the economy world-wide had been, for more than 100 years,
neglected or grossly underestimated by mainstream economics and sociology and,
occasionally, even by university and college presidents. This is unfortunate
despite the seminal studies on women's market and non-market work and pay or
worth by Charlotte Perkins Gilman in 1898 (Women
and Economics), Margaret Reid in 1934 (Economics of Household Production)
or Gary Becker (USA)
and Duncan Ironmonger (Australia) in
more recent years. This perception and deficit have however been rectified to a
large extent by significant studies by international experts in the area and
published in August 2005 in Tran Van Hoa (editor) Advances in Household Economics, Consumer
Behaviour and Economic Policy (Ashgate, Aldershot, UK).
The timely and
important book contains recent studies, in honour of Duncan Ironmonger's
life-time work, on the state-of-the-art in the measurement and application of
household economics and household production, and on new developments of
consumer behaviour (essential for effective marketing). More importantly, the book discusses the implications of these
advances for more appropriate and effective analysis and formulation of
contemporary economic and social and welfare policy in both developed and and
developing countries and at the micro and macroeconomic level. The studies
contained in the book also point out that women's worth is immense for society
and, in an economic sense, far excceds the GDP (as measured routinely so far by
market activities only) of a nation.
The book was formally launched by
Prof Emeritus Joe Isaac at the invitation of Prof Emeritus Jim Perkins, on 28
September 2005 at the
In the photo below
taken at University House, University of Melbourne, at the book's launch are,
from left to right, Dr Duncan Ironmonger (Director, Households Research Unit,
Department of Economics, University of Melbourne), Dr Barry Jones (President,
Australian Labor Party), Prof Tran Van Hoa, and Prof
Asia
and Regional Development in
23
September 2005
Tran Van Hoa attended and delivered a keynote speech
at the 2005 Asia Update Forum in
Speakers at the 2005 Forum included the Director
General of the NSW Regional and State Development Department, First Assistant
Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, ABARE senior
economist, Austrade commissioner, Chairman of the Central West Regional
Development Board, Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Stephanie Fahey (University of
Sydney), an MLA, and the regional manager of DEVRO.
In the photo taken at the Forum function below are,
from left to right (standing), 1st, Mr Sandy Morrison (Chair, Central West
Regional Development Board); 2nd, Jammie Penn (ABARE); 3rd partly obscured, Mr
Loftus Harris (Director General, NSWRSDD); 4th, Prof Stephanie Fahey (Pro Vice
Chancellor and Director, Research Institute for Asia and the Pacific, Sydney
University); 9th, Prof Kevin Parton (Forum Organiser); 11th, Prof Tran Van Hoa;
and 14th, Dan Williams, Trade Commissioner at the Australian Embassy in the
Philippines.
ASEAN+3 FREE TRADE AGREEMENT AND AUSTRALIA-VIETNAM TRADE
6 September 2005, Ministry of Trade,
Tran Van Hoa recently participated in an ARC workshop on ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Recent Trends in Trade and Development
in ASEAN at the Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT), Ministry of
Trade (MOT), in Hanoi. The workshop was organised by the ARC Industry Partner,
VIT, and was a venue to report the progress research work of the first stage of
activities of the ARC Linkage Project ASEAN+3
Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade.
At the workshop, aspects and issues of FTAs, recent trends in trade,
investment, development, growth, and regional economic relations were presented
and discussed by Prof Tran Van Hoa (the ARC Chief Investigator) and VIT
researchers. More than 30 MOT government officials attended the workshop.
A fieldtrip for the ARC Chief Investigator to a southern province in
In the photo below taken at the workshop
are, from left to right, Ho Trung Thanh (ARC VIT Project Manager), Prof Tran
Van Hoa, Dr Nguyen Van Thanh (Deputy Director General, VIT), and Nguyen Van
Duong (Director, International Office, VIT).
In the photo below is a view of participants
at the workshop at VIT headquarters in
15th
During
28-29 June 2005, Tran Van Hoa also attended, as an IOA delegate invited by the
Local Organiser, the 15th
Interntional Conference of the Input Output Association that took place at Run Run Shaw Conference Center at
the Renmin University of China in Beijing. The Conference was highly
significant in that it was the first ever IIOA conference taking place in
In
the photo below taken in front of the School of Staitsics Building at Renmin University
of China are, from left to right, Prof Qiyun Liu (IIOA Vice President, China) ,
Prof Yanyun Zhao (IIOA Vice President, China, and Conference Local Organiser),
Prof Karen Rosel Polemke (former IIOA President, and Prof, Department of Urban
Studies, MIT, USA), and Prof Tran Van Hoa,
WTO,
X'ian
Tran
Van Hoa recently attended the International
Conference on the WTO,
In
the photo below taken at the Conference Opening Ceremony at the X'ian Jiaotong
University Conference Center are, from left to right, Prof Tran Van Hoa, Ms Aq
Ying Gao (Shan'xi TV Representative) and Prof Zongxian Feng (Head of Department
of Economics and Finance, XJTU), the Local Conference Organiser.
Development
and Co-operation in
the
An
AusAID-funded International Workshop
Hanoi 29-30 March 2005, NATI, Vietnam
Ministry of Trade
An important
international workshop with the theme Impact of the WTO
and Regional Economic Integration on Development and Trade in the Mekong River
Subregion Economies recently took place at the National
Advanced Training Insitute (NATI), Vietnam Ministry of Trade, in
Facilitated by Prof
Tran Van Hoa (Department of Economics, and Director, ASEAN+3 and Vietnam Focus
Research Program, University of Wollongong, Australia), funded by AusAID, Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, locally organised by the NATI (Rector, Dr Pham Quang Thao), and
co-sponsored by Prof
Major issues for presentation and
discussion were focused on the turbulent history of the economies in the GMS,
their current economic and trade development nationally and within the
framework of the WTO and regional economic integration, and the need for their
co-operation to enhance their mutually important economic, commerce and
political benefits in the medium and long term.
The workshop papers and discussion were widely reported in the English
(eg, Viet Nam News and Vietnam Investment
Review, 30 March 2005) and Vietnamese mass media.
In the photo below,
taken in the NATI auditorium at the opening ceremony of the workshop, are, from
left to right, Prof Yanyun Zhao (P.R. China), Prof Charles Harvie (Britain),
Prof
In the photo below
taken at the workshop during discussion are Prof Tran Van Hoa (left) and Mr Phanh Vilaysom, Economic and Commercial Counsellor at the Embassy of the Lao People Democratic Republic (PDR).
Below
is a photo of some of the participants, coming from the major ministries,
national and international agencies, and national and transnational companies
in
ASEAN+3
Free Trade Agreement:
Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade and
Investment
10 November 2004, Vietnam Institute for
Trade,
With the slow progress and still
extensive disagreements on the
A new methodology
with substantial and realistic improvements on economic structure, scope in
trade, time-series data consistency and superior estimation and impact features
has been proposed in a major international linkage research project to study an
important regional economic and trade issue in Asia: the Impact of ASEAN+3 FTA on Australia-Vietnam Trade. Funded by the Australian Government
Research Council (ARC) for the period 2004-07,
the project is managed by Prof Tran Van Hoa (the Chief
Investigator) and with the collaboration of the Director-General (the Industry
Partner Investigator), Prof Nguyen Van Lich, of Vietnam Institute for Trade
(VIT), a division of Vietnam Ministry of
Trade. VIT-funds matching ARC grant were
provided by Vietnam Ministry of Trade under the sponsorship of HE Le Danh Vinh,
Vice Minister of Trade. Substantive empirical outcomes from the
project are expected to provide timely, robust and reliable policy
recommendations to both the governments and trade agencies in Australia and
Vietnam to enhance their trade and economic well-being and regional cooperation
and, as a result, stability and security in the region. Applications of the
methodology to other FTAs such as the recent Australia-US and Australia-Thailand
and the proposed ASEAN+
In the photo below
taken at the Signing Ceremony of the ARC Linkage Project at the Vietnam
Institute for Trade's conference centre at its headquarter, 46 Ngo Quyen,
Hanoi, are from left to right, Ms Nguyen Thi Nga (VIT Interpreter), Prof Dr
Nguyen Van Lich (VIT Director-General), H.E. Le Danh Vinh (Vietnam
Vice-Minister for Trade), H.E. Joe Thwaites (Australian Ambassador to Vietnam),
and Prof Tran Van Hoa. The Signing Ceremony was nationally televised and
reported in the radio and print media.
What's New in Sex Discrimination and
Economic Policy
4 November 2004
Department of Economics,
In the photo below taken at a post-lecture
dinner at the University Food Re-thought Restaurant are
the
Hon Sharon Bird, new Federal MP for Cunningham and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
Second Italy-China International
Conference on
Economic and Social Statistics
25 October 2004
University of
As part of their on-going collaborative work in economic and
statistical research
within the Asia-Europe linkage framework, the University of Florence (UNIFI) in Italy and the Renmin University
of China (RUC) in Beijing, China, jointly held their 2nd interntional
conference at the Department of Statistics (G. Parenti) Centre on the UNIFI
campus on 25 October 2004 (the first Italy-China international conference was
held in Guangdong in December 2002). Co-ordinated by Profs Guido
Ferrari of UNIFI and Yanyun Zhao of RUC and with the collaboration of Prof Tran
Van Hoa (University of Wollongong, Australia), the conference had the participation of more
than 20 academics and experts from major cities in Italy, four major
provinces in China and high-ranking universities in Australia. The topics of
discussion are wide-ranging (16 papers were presented) and cover both theoretical
and empirical aspects of: ASEAN+3 free trade agreement and its impact on Asia-EU
trade, growth and economic relations; computable regional equilibrium
modelling; R&D, technology innovation, competitiveness, technology
efficieny and optimal expenditure size on national, regional and sectoral
growth in China; administrative data organization, teaching supply analysis and
university education evaluation in Italy; use of equivalence scales in
separated (divorced) family child support; and firm size distribution in
a socialist market economy (such as China and Vietnam).
The conference was also a major event from a bilateral (Italy-China)
perspective that was organised to help, through the efforts of EU and Asia
economic and statistical academics and experts, to strengthen the broader
Asia-EU link and collaboration scheme vigorously supported by the European Commission
and the Government of China and institutions in Asia and
In the photo below taken at the opening of the conference are, from left
to right, Prof Sandro Viviani (UNIFI), Dr Lorella Palla (Head, UNIFI
International Relations Office), Mr Li Runfu (Consul General of China in
Florence), Prof Guido Ferrari (UNIFI), Prof Tran Van Hoa (UOW) and Prof Yanyun
Zhao (RUC).
In the photo below taken on the terrace at the Pitti Palace Hotel for the Conference Farewell Dinner,
hosted by Mr Paolo del Bianco, President of the Fondazione Romualdo del Bianco
of Florence (a non-profit agency with international social mission objectives), are, from left to right, Prof
Guido Ferrari, Mr Paolo del Bianco, Prof Tran Van Hoa and Prof Yanyun Zhao.
4th Asia-Pacific Economic Forum
International Conference
Asian and Global Economies:
Issues of Competitiveness and Growth
5-7 September
2004
Renmin
The Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) held, with the financial support
of China Department of Education, its 4th International Conference at the
Renmin (People)
Founded in 2001 at the Kangwon National University, Chunchon, Korea, the
APEF which is a new economics society has a wide-ranging high-level membership
from a global academic and government expert community consisting of major
countries in Asia (eg, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Philippines,
Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam), the European Union (France, Italy), the Middle East
(Iran), North America (the US and Canada) and Oceania (Australia and New
Zealand). The focus of interest, research and dissemination of substantive
findings of the APEF is economic development and growth, trade and investment,
competitiveness, free trade agreements, international economic integration and
relations, and new Asian regionalism.
Participants at the APEF 4 Conference include academics,
government and Asian Development Bank economists and other experts from
the powerful East Asia 3 group,
In the group photo below taken in the Run Run Shaw Room at the Yi Fu
Conference Centre at Renmin University of China are, from left and from 7th to
13th places, Prof
Globalisation Gains and Losses:
Lord Meghnad Desai
Prof Meghnad Desai of the London School of Economics and a life peer of St Clement
Danes (in
In the photo below taken in the Faculty of Arts at the
University of Wollongong during his visit are, from left to right, Prof Leone
Lyons, Deputy Diretor of CAPSTRANS, Prof Lord Meghnad Desai and Prof Tran Van
Hoa.
3-4 July 2004,
Early in July 2004, Tran Van Hoa
attended the third conference in the conference series Korea
and the World Economy,taking place on 3-4 July 2004 at
Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Korea,to deliver a paper on Korea's
Trade,Growth
of Trade and the World Economies in Post-crisis ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement. He
also acted as a discussant in a Plenary Session Economic Cooperation
in
In the photo below taken in the 600 Anniversary
Memorial Hall at Sungkyunkwan University at the end of the Conference are, from
left to right, Prof H H Lee (Kangwon National University, Korea), Prof
Charles Harvie (Director, Hunter Valley Research Foundation, Australia), Prof
Chung Mo Koo (Kangwon National University), Prof Jong Won Lee (President,
AKES), Prof Tran Van Hoa (Australia), and Prof Karyiu Wong (RCIE, USA).
Contemporary Modelling Economic and
Financial Policy:
A European Union Perspective
30 June-2 July 2004, Universite de Paris I, Pantheon-Sorbonne
Tran Van Hoa participated in the EcoMod 2004
International Conference on Policy Modelling that took place on 30 June-2
July 2004 at France's prestigious university, Pantheon-Sorbonne, Universite de
Paris I, to present his current modelling policy research work on the Impact of the ASEAN+3
Free Trade Agreement on Asia-Europe Trade and Economic Relations: A New
Modelling Approach. The Conference was organised by the EcoMod Network and sponsored by
The keynote addresses and papers delivered at the
Conference represent some of the state-of-the-art research and
commissioned activities by economic and financial experts on major
issues, aspects and policy modelling methodologial advances in trade, growth,
monetary policy, labour, competition and economic relations in the EU and
in other countries that have relations with the EU. Attending the Conference
were over 200 academics, businesspeople, government officials and advisers, and
delegates from the European Commission, the European Central Bank, the US
International Trade Commission, and coming from the countries in the
EU, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Oceania, and the UK, the US,
and Russia.
In the photo below taken in the Sorbonne Foyer on the opening day at the
Conference are, from left to right, Lionel Fontaigne (Director, CEPII,
Professor, Universite de Paris I, and EcoMod 2004 Program Committee Member),
Beatrice Poster ( Executive Administrative, CEPII), and Tran Van Hoa.
WTO,
Major Regional Issues
An Interntional Conference was recently jointly
organised by the Research Center for International Economics (Director: Prof
Karyiu Wong) at Washington University (Seattle, USA), East-West Center (Hawaii,
USA), and the Business School, Renmin University of China, with a focus on the
theme The WTO, China and the Asian Economies II. The Conference
took place at the Yi Fu Conference Center on RUC campus during 18-19 June
2004 with the participation of over 60 experts from
Since its WTO membership in 2001,
In the photo below, taken at the
RUC Yi Fu Conference Center, are, from left to right, Prof Feng Zongxian (Xian
Giaotong University and Organiser for 2005 WTO and China III Conference), Prof
Karyiu Wong (Director, RCIE, University of Washington, USA) and Prof Tran Van
Hoa (Director, Vietnam Focus and ASEAN+3 Research Program, Wollongong
University, Australia).
In the group photo taken in front of the RUC Yi
Fu Conference Center at the end of the Conference on WTO,
ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement
and Its Impact on Australia-China Trade:
Who Gains and Who Loses?
With the slow progress of the WTO negotiations
(due chiefly to several yet unresolvable issues on trade protection and
subsidies by WTO members) and the still non-WTO membership of many LDCs, the
proliferation of regional free trade agreeements (FTAs) and closer economic
relations (CER) especially in Asia in order to liberalise trade and promote
growth is being vigorously supported by governments and the development is
amply justified. One of these important recent FTAs is the ASEAN+3 (10 ASEAN
countries plus
The first workshop to report on
the project's research findings by UOW and RUC economic and trade experts was
organised by Prof Zhao at the China Centre for Applied
Statistics Research on the RUC campus on 17 June 2004 where Tran Van Hoa
and other Chinese experts presented and discussed their progress work.
Participants in the workshop also included postgraduate students, postdoctoral
fellows and academics from the RUC and other Chinese universities.
In the photo below, taken at the end of the
workshop in the School of Statistics, RUC, are some participants including,
from left to right, Prof Guirong Li (School of FInance, RUC, 6th place), Prof
Yanyun Zhao (RUC, 8th place), and Prof Tran Van Hoa (9th place).
GLOBALISATION: DEFINITION AND
FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES
May 2004
Globalisation is perhaps one of the most
frequently quoted words or reverently cited concepts in all areas of
contemporary hard, soft or metaphysical sciences (eg, engineering, economics,
humanities, politics, business, management, governance, religion, sociology,
philosophy, to name a few), but it remains the most misunderstood or mis-interpreted
at all levels, layman or expert, of enquiry. Every one of the 2822 acdemic
papers and 589 books published in 1998 alone for example has its own definition
(see www.globalisationguide.org/01.html). A quick browse of current
writings or debates on globalisation will however reveal that most publications
and discussions focus essentially on what globalisation does or generates
rather than on what it truly is.
Globalisation occurs (or is) when human
activities (physical and non-physical), originated from one state, move to
other dependent (satellite) or independent (sovereign) states. These activities
may be in one of the areas mentioned above. A cause of this movement is the
superiority (or comparative advantages, competitiveness, or novelty) of the
tools (goods), the ideas (services), finance (capital availability) or the
armed forces of a state. The outcome of this globalisation can be either
better (unification of warring states, improved trade and
living standards, broadened enlightenment or closer economic relations), or
for worse [destruction of a state (forced and invited
occupation), its infrastructure, activities, resources (deforestation,
environment degradation, or terrorist attacks) or its culture (religion,
family, custom or ages-old traditions)].
With this definition, globalisation could be
regarded as being existent with the first human cross-continetal migration of
the world, followed or manisfested further by the occupation or expansion or
the international trade of the desert kingdoms in the Middle East (the cradle
of civilisation), the rise and fall of the Greek and Roman empires, the global
spread of Christianity, Buddism or Islam or more recent diverse religions, the
establishment of the Silk Road, the conquests of the Gengis Khan families, the
adventures of Marco Polo, the colonial empires of major European countries in
America, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, the continental or world wars of the
past, the feared hegemonism of communism after the Second World War and
socialism, the setting-up of the League of Nations, the United Nations, the
GATT and GATS, the WTO, and the increasing reach and influence of capitalism
and its coporates. The current promotion of globalisation by
its advocates is usually based on the utilisation of international
competitiveness or an advancement of closer economic relations. The
anti-globalisation supporters, while grudgingly admitting the process of
globalisation, emphasise on the other hand the lack of equity or fairness (who
gains most and who loses most) or the social concerns of globalisation. Like
all other things in life, an equilibrium (or balance) of gains (output growth,
improved living standard, welfare and security) and losses (rights and wrongs,
suitability and unsuitablity, transgenerational negatives and pluses) of
globalisation (or all other human activities or decisions) must be considered
and achieved for optimal outcomes and less wasteful confrontations for all
stakeholders. Curiously, efficiency and equity are the two main
concerns of mainstream economics and the real base for research, policy
advice and public debates by respectable economists. See
also Tran Van Hoa and C Harvie (eds) New Asian Regionalism: Responses to
Globalisation and Crises,
ACADEMIC WRITERS AND INTERNATIONAL
PUBLISHERS:
IMPORTANT LINK
2 March 2004
A strong linkage between the 'research and
write' academics and reputable international publishers is crucial for an
efficient public-benefits dissemination worldwide of new knowledge and findings
of both a basic and applied/policy kind in all scientific endeavours. To
maintain this linkage, Edward and Sandy Elgar of Edward Elgar
Publishers in the
In the photo below taken in the Department of
Economics during Catherine's hectic visit and meetings with academics at the
University of Wollognong are (from left) Prof Ann Hodgkinson (Head
of the School of Economics and Information Systems), Catherine Elgar (Edward
Elgar, UK) and Prof Tran Van Hoa (who, in addition to other books published
with Macmillan, UK, has published five books with EE in the past
four years).
AUSTRALIA-VIETNAM DIPLOMATIC, ECONOMIC
AND TRADE RELATIONS: 30 YEARS OF BRIDGING DIVIDES
14 February 2004, Stamford Plaza
Hotel,
On the Valentine Day 2004, the Director of the
ASEAN and Vietnam Focus Research Program at the University of Wollongong (Prof
Tran Van Hoa) attended an official function at the Stamford Plaza Hotel, Double
Bay, organised by the Vietnam Consul General in New South Wales (Mr Nguyen Van
Tho) to honour the visit by Vietnam's new Foreign Minister, H E Nguyen Di Nien,
to Sydney. The visit by Mr Nien (and his wife, Mrs Dung) was significant since
he was one of
At the function, it was also expressed that,
with these expanding relations and its abundance of natural, physical and human
resources, its dedication at all society levels to improve the economic and
social conditions, and its recent economic achievements even during the
devastating Asia crisis of 1997-2002 and the 2003 SARS and 2004 avian flu
outbreaks, Vietnam will surely stand proud of its future economic development
and social progress and its high standing in the regional and
international community.
In the
photo below taken at the Stamford Plaza Hotel function welcoming Vietnam
Foreign Minister, are (from left), the Hon. Nguyen Van Tho (Vietnam Consul
General in Sydney), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Mrs Dung, H E Nguyen Di Nien (Vietnam
Foreign Minister), Mrs Tran Thi Lai (Vina World Travel) and H E Le Xuan Lieu,
Vietnam Ambassador to Australia.
WHAT DO ASIAN ECONOMIES HAVE TO DO
WHEN FACING
REGIONAL CRISES AND RELENTLESS GLOBALISATION?
9 February 2004
Crises seem to beset most of us at all levels:
personal, community, national, global and transgenerational. The once 'high
growth miracle' economies of the East and
A new and timely book New Asian
Regionalism: Responses to Globalisation and Crises [edited by Tran Van
Hoa and Charles Harvie, Palgrave-Macmillan, 2003 (see below)], is a collection
of important studies by a select group of Asian and Oceanian economists
exploring and analysing the strong emergence of Asian regionalisms and economic
integration in the region in recent times to deal with the aftermath of the
recent crises, the relentless marching of globalisation, and the increasing
emphasis on and penetration of international competitiveness in all economies,
developed and developing. A product of an international conference organised by
the executives of the newly formed APEF (Asia Pacific Economic Forum) at the
University of Wollongong (Australia) in 2002, the book provides a wealth of
information and ideas on the development of this new Asian regionalism and how
it can be used by economic policy makers and shakers to steer Asian crisis
economies towards quick recovery, strong growth and more social and political
stability, and increasing living standards for all peoples in the region in the
near future.
FOR
8-10
December 2003
Impact and long-term implications as well as emerging challenges and
opportunities of Asia's past and current crises and recoveries were the
themes of the Asia Crisis V International Conference taking place on campus at the Kangwon National
University (KNU) in
In the photo below taken on campus (Faculty of Arts Building) at the
Kangwon National University on the opening day of the Conference were (from
left) Prof Chung Mo Koo (Local Conference Organiser), Ms Kopea (KNU
Postgraduate Student, background), Prof Kar Yiu Wong (Conference Organiser,
University of Washington), Prof Dr Yong Soo Park (President of KNU)
and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
AUSTRALIA AND VIETNAM'S
ECONOMIC AND TRADE DEVELOPMENT
Hanoi, 4-8 December 2003
During the first week of
the 22nd SEA (South East Asia) Games taking place in Hanoi (30 November-14
December 2003), Tran Van Hoa held discussions with senior officials of
Vietnam's Ministry of Trade (MOT) on current and planned work between MOT
and the Vietnam Focus Research Program (Director: Tran Van Hoa) at the
University of Wollogong. Work for the triennial 2004-2006 includes a number of
training workshops for Vietnam government officials on Research and Investment Evaluation at
NATI (MOT National Advanced Training Institute) and a research project
proposal ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and its
impact on Australia-Vietnam trade at
Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT). Dicussions were also carried out on
potential collaborative work between NATI and VIT and VFOC on targeted areas of
interest in the $10 million ODA (Official Development Assistance) program
on
In the photo below taken at the VIT
headquarter,
AUSTRALIA-THAILAND FREE TRADE AGREEMENT: INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATIVE
WORK
Prof Tran Van Hoa recently
visited Thailand's prestigious university, Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok,
to develop international collaborative link and work between it and the
University of Wollongong (Australia) on aspects and issues including obstacles
and opportunities of the Australia-Thailand
free trade agreement (ATFTA) and closer economic relations signed by the Prime Ministers of Australia and Thailand during the APEC
Leaders Meeting in Bangkok in November 2003. Representing
Informally attending the
ATFTA discussion and working lunch between Profs Tran Van Hoa (UOW) and
Suthipand Chirathivat (Chula) was their colleague, H. E. Dr Kitti Limskul, Thailand's Vice Minister of
Finance, who was a professor (on leave) at Chulalobngkorn
University and one of the 23 founding members of the ruling party, Thai Ruk Thai, in
Thailand. Prof Tran Van Hoa later visited Dr Kitti's office at the Ministry of
Finance to discuss further issues related to major economies in the Asian
region in general and to the ATFTA in particular. He also visited his
networked colleagues at Thammasat
University to explore joint research and training opportunities
between the Vietnam Focus Research Program at the University of Wollongong and
the Faculty of Economics at Thammasat University for several modules
of the Greater Mekong Project (GMP) being
funded by the Thai Government to Vietnam to assist Vietnam's current economic
development programs.
In the photo below taken
on campus at
Also in the photo
below taken on campus at
Prof Tran Van Hoa (left) and Prof Pranee Nitakorn, Dean, Faculty of Economics,
New
Asian Regionalism in
18-19 September 2003,
Major
important issues and problems of one of Asia's hottest developments at the highest
level of government, namely new
Asian regionalism and its upshoots, free trade agreements, economic integration
and closer relations, were discussed at
the 3rd Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF)
International Conference (The
Conference Theme: New East Asian
Regionalism: Perspectives from Individual Countries) at Japan's prestigious private university in Tokyo
last week. The APEF was inaugurated at
At
the conference, eminent participants and paper authors from eight major
countries in East Asia (China, Japan, Korea),
South-East Asia (Thailand) and West Asia (Iran), Oceania (Australia and New
Zealand) and the US presented and
discussed their new applied and analytical research findings of immense
importance to not only their own countries but also to regional and global
economies including the major trading blocs in the world. The topics include new Asian regionalism and its
regional and global impact and costs-benefits, economic development and growth,
trade, investment, East Asia energy cooperation, regional production and
distribution network, monetary cooperation, development of a North-East Asian
Development Bank, and economic integration policy. At the Conference, Prof Yanyun Zhao of the Renmin
University of China in
In the photo taken at the APEF 3
Reception hosted by Keio University on Art Hills in Central Tokyo are (from
left to right) Lika Tanaka and Satoko Fukaya (Keio Postgraduate Students), Prof
Eiji Ogawa (Hitotsubashi University), Prof Chan-Hyun Sohn (Korea Institute for
International Economic Policy), Yuya Takahashi (Keio Postgraduate Student),
Prof Hiro Lee (ICSEAD, Japan), Prof Yanyun Zhao (Renmin University of China,
Beijing), Profs Huyn-Hoon Lee and Chung-Mo Koo (Kangwon National University,
Korea), Mitsuyo Ando (Research Associate, Keio University), Dr Komail Tayyebi
(University of Isfahan, Iran), Prof
In
the photo below taken at the main building at Keio University, Mita Campus, are
(from left to right) Prof Suthipand Chirathivat (Dean, Faculty of Economics,
Chulalongkorn University, Thailand), Prof Zongming Tang (Shanghai Jiaotong
University, China), Lika Tanaka, Prof Chung-Mo Koo, and Prof Robert Scollay
(PECC Member).
In
the photo below also taken at
In
the photo below taken at the Faculty Club at Keio University Mita Campus are
(from left to right) Prof Yanyun Zhao (Dean, Faculty of Statistics, Renmin
University of China,
THE
BBC, THE WTO, THE 2003 CANCUN AGENDA
AND ECONOMIC AND TRADE PROSPECTS
FOR
(Summary
of a BBC Interview with Tran Van Hoa
on 11 September 2003)
The
146-member WTO Ministerial Meeting this week in Cancun, Mexico, has to deal not
only with anti-globalisation protesters but also a number of difficult
post-Doha problems faced by current WTO members and affecting aspiring WTO
members especially those in the agriculturally-based Asian region. To some
analysts, the only
All
this seems to mean that the LDC members (especially those in the mainly
agricultural-exports regions) in the WTO may not gain substantial and quick
trade and economic benefits from their WTO memberships. A logical consequence
is that
COMPETITION
POLICY AND LAW AND THEIR FUTURE
IN
10 September 2003
Prof Allan
Fels, former Chairman of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission
(ACCC) and current
In
the photo below at a Commerce Faculty reception for Prof Allan Fels are (from
left to right) Profs Allan Fels, Tran Van Hoa (Allan's colleague and friend
over 35 years from their days at the University of Western Australia and Monash
University) and John Glynn (Dean, Faculty of Commerce, University of
Wollongong).
Highly
relevant to the First Economics Public Lecture's theme above but with a focus
and emphasis on Asia's economic development and competitiveness is the
publication by Edward Elgar in the
UK and US, of a new book by Tran Van Hoa with
the title Competition Policy and Global
Competitiveness in Major Asian Economies (see photo and review below). The book is the product of an APEC training project funded by the Australian
Government AusAID Agency and Wollongong International Business Research
Institute (IBRI). Its contents are at the level of the UNCTAD, WTO,
APEC and ASEAN and deal with the foundation of competition theory and new
developments and implementation of competition policy and law in major
economies in East Asia, South East Asia and
ENHANCING
ASIA-EUROPEAN
AND RESEARCH COLLABORATION
June
2003
Serious work
on enhancing ASEM network and research collaboration has been recently
initiated by Prof Tran Van Hoa during his visits to several prestigious
research institutes and universities in the European Union during June 2003.
The purpose of the visits was to communicate his recent research findings on
ASEAN free trade agreement and new Asian regionalism and to start cooperation
or to strengthen the existing network and association with EU academics and
researchers who have been working, either individually or on commission from
the European Commission, on important aspects and major issues in Asia-EU
trade, investment and international economic relations.
The visited
institutes include the Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE)
and the
In
the photo below are Prof Guido Ferrari (left), Department of Statistics,
Vietnam-Australia
Friendship Association Meeting
at the
22
May 2003
The
Chairman of the Vietnam Australian Friendship Association (a society of
government officials, business people and Vietnamese alumni from Australia), Dr
Luong Van Ly, recently visited the Melbourhne Institute for Asian Languages and
Societies (MIALS) at the Sidney Myer Asia Centre at the University of Melbourne
to meet with experts on Vietnam to discuss high-education collaboration and
joint-venture opportunities in Southern Vietnam for Australian universities.
The visit is part of the program organised by the
Present
for discussion at the meeting at MIALS were Prof Tran Van Hoa (representing the
In
the photo taken at MIALS Meeting Room No. 1 below are, from left to right, Ms
Ngan Collins (Ph D student in Management), Dr Di Bretherton
(Psychology-Trauma), Dr Jane Fisher (Post Natal Depression), Prof Tran Van Hoa,
Dr Luong Van Ly, Dr Adam Fforde (Principal Fellow, MIALS), Dr Pip Nicholson
(Asian Law Centre), Dr Maureen Welch (Asian Education Foundation), Dr Jennifer
Holmgren (DFAT Executive Desk Officer), and Angela Kerry (Melbourne
University).
A
THEORY AND PRACTICE TO DO BETTER FORECASTS
ANYTHING, ANYTIME AND ANYWHERE
by
Tran Van Hoa
For millennia,
it has been the ambition of mankind, for selfish or pecuniary or altruist or
noble reasons, to see clearly or predict accurately things in the future, near
or far. Sometimes, it can do so with a divining rod, by looking at the sky or
mountains, by resorting to past occurrences, by using insider information, or
by a forecasting tool known by statistical experts as a forecasting model. A
forecasting model is simply a logical causal structure that stipulates that
things happening now depend on things happening to them in the past, and things
that will happen in the future depend on things happening to them before that.
This forecasting model consists of the required but unknown forecast itself and
its determinant factors (variables) and contributing strengths (parameters). The
form of this forecasting model is usually not known by anyone but determined or
chosen by the expert doing the forecasting. Given a forecasting model, its
variables and parameters, a forecast into the future can then be made. The
theory of forecasting used universally nowadays involves either that all
variables and parameters are known (the neo-classical or CGE or AGE or WTO
school) or that all variables are known but their parameters have to be
estimated from real-life data for realism (the realist or Keynesian school) or
a mixture of both. The estimation method used here is usually the ordinary
least-squares (OLS) or maximimum-likelihood (ML) that provides best linear
unbiased parameters when the model generating them is correctly formulated and
contains no omitted variable or no measurement error-in-variables. The
conditions are hardly met in all real-life situations and what we have been
given in all forecasting studies of this kind are simply biased and highly
inaccurate parameters and forecasts.
A new
forecasting approach proposed by Tran Van Hoa provides better forecasts on the
issues arising above. The approach states that, given any function in any form
linking causally in anyway a forecast (of anything) to its determining
variables, a linear forecasting (function-free) model can always be derived
(Tran Van Hoa, 1992) and its parameters can always be obtained by a new
estimation theory (the so-called two-stage hierarchical information (2SHI),
also known as the improved Stein or empirical Bayes) that produce always more
accurate or better in-average-squared-errors properties than all other existing
estimation methods currently in use (see for example, Tran Van Hoa, 1985, Tran
Van Hoa and Chaturvedi, 1997). Better forecasts can then be obtained from these
better estimated parameters. Applications of the new approach have been carried
out over the past 10 years or so in numerous scholarly and commissioned applied
studies involving economics, business, energy demand, trade, investment and
finance. Improved accuracy in forecasting in these studies range from 10 to 150
per cent, an enormous achievement that can make or break individual fortunes,
expand or destroy giant businesses, discredit national and international
organisations, and change governments. Some studies dealing with this new
forecasting approach and applications are given in the publications below.
A.V.
Jennings Industries in
10
March 2003
A.V. Jennings
Industries P/L, one of
In the photo below
taken at a luncheon reception at Phu Dong Restaurant in Central Hanoi in honour
of Vic and Margaret Jennings are (from left to right, standing) Margaret
and Vic Jennings, (sitting) Mr Nguyen Chi (Senior Expert, Ministry of Trade),
Dr Pham Quang Thao (Rector, NATI), Dr Bui Huu Dao
(Director General, Science Department, Ministry of Trade) and
Prof Tran Van Hoa.
Festschrift
in Honour of Prof Peter Lloyd
(of the Grubel-Lloyd Index fame)
Prof
Tran Van Hoa recently joined close colleagues and international friends of
Peter Lloyd to participate in a festschrift conference in the Faculty of
Economics and Commerce at the University of Melbourne (on 23-24 January 2003)
to celebrate Peter's long-standing and significant contribution to the theory
of international trade, notably his collaborative work with Herbert Grubel (a
Canadian economist then visiting the Australian National University) in
formalising the so-called Grubel-Lloyd
Index of Intra-industry Trade. Used
extensively in the profession as the main indicator of regional trade flows,
the index has been able to track more accurately the intensity of South East
Asian countries' trade in recent years and to provide an explanation for this
region's spectacular growth before the 1997
In
the photo below taken at the festschrift dinner hosted by the Department of
Economics at the
In
the second photo taken at a festschrift farewell cocktail function at Prof
Lloyd's residence are
(from left to right) Tran Van Hoa, Emeritus
Prof Max Corden and Prof Herbert Grubel.