TRAN VAN HOA
B.Ec (Hons), M.Ec., Ph.D.
Research
Professor, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies,
Director,
Phone: 613 9919 1047, Fax: 613 9919 1350, Email:
jimmy.tran@vu.edu.au
Honorary
Professor, National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam
Honorary Professor, National Advanced
Training Institute (NATI), Ministry of Trade, Vietnam
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INTERNATIONAL
AWARD & RECOGNITION
Association of the Korean
Economic Studies (AKES) 2004 Best Paper Prize for the article Tran Van Hoa
(2004),"Korea’s Trade, Growth of Trade
and the World Economy in Post-crisis ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement: An
Econometric and Policy Analysis", Journal
of the Korean Economy, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 73-108.
For Tran Van Hoa's Recent
Profile in Vietnamese
please click the site below:
Article profiled in Vietnam's Nhan Dan
or (if the above has been moved)
Go to last page of this website
BUSINESS AND CONSULTING EXPERIENCE
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NSW |
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AusAID |
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Ministry of Commerce ( |
Ministry of Trade ( |
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Ford Foundation ( |
ACIL-Cardno Australlia |
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United Nations UNESCAP |
International
Consultants Centre ICC, Melbourne |
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United Nations Development Program ( |
AREAS OF
TEACHING
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International Finance |
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Applied and Theoretical Econometrics |
Econometric Modelling and Forecasts |
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Business Economics in |
Energy Economics |
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Competition Policy in Asian Economies |
Trade and Investment in |
AREAS OF
RESEARCH
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Development Economics and Growth |
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Economic Modelling |
Business Forecasting |
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Business and Public Policy |
ASEAN Economies and its
Enlargement (East Asia |
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International Business and Trade |
Welfare Economics |
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Energy Economics |
Consumer Demand Studies |
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Econometric Theory and Analysis |
International Finance |
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Production Studies |
Competition Policy in Asian Economies |
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New Asian Regionalism |
Transition Economies in |
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Asian Free Trade Agreements and WTO |
Household Production and Economics |
RECENT
BOOKS ON ASIAN ECONOMIES
by TRAN VAN HOA
Tran Van Hoa (ed) (1997), Economic Development and Prospects in the
ASEAN: Foreign Investment and Growth in
Tran Van Hoa (with C Harvie) (1997),
Tran Van Hoa (ed) (1999), Sectoral
Analysis of Trade, Investment and Business in
Tran Van Hoa and C. Harvie (eds) (2000), Causes
and Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis,
Tran Van Hoa (ed) (2000), Prospects for Trade,
Investment and Business in
Tran Van Hoa (ed) (2000), The Asia Crisis: The
Cures, Their Effectiveness and The Prospects After,
Tran Van Hoa, Vietnam: Market Intelligence and Business Analysis,
London: Macmillan, in preparation.
Tran Van Hoa, (2000) The Social Impact of
the Asia Crisis,
Tran Van Hoa (2000),
Tran Van Hoa (2001), The Asia Recovery,
Tran Van Hoa (2002), Economic Crisis Management,
Tran Van Hoa (2003), Competition Policy in Major Asian Economies,
Tran Van Hoa and C. Harvie (2003), New Asian Regionalism: Responses to
Globalisation and Crises,
Tran Van Hoa (with C Harvie), The Economic Development in Transition
Economies,
Tran Van Hoa, P Q Thao, V T Dung and L H An (2004),
Competition Law and Policy in Major Economies in Asia and Vietnam (in
Vietnamese), NATI, Ministry of Trade, Hanoi.
Tran Van Hoa (2005), Household Production. Consumer Behaviour and
Economic Policy,
Tran Van Hoa and N V Lich (2006), ASEAN+3 and Its Impact on
Tran Van Hoa and N V Lich (2007), Business Opportunities in
Tran Van Hoa and N V Lich (2007), WTO
Impact on Regional
Tran Van Hoa and C Harvie (2008), Regional Trade Agreements in Asia,
RECENT WORK & ACTIVITIES
PROMOTING
EAST & WEST
2-7 November 2008
Universities of Sistan &
Baluchestan,
During
the first week of November 2008, Tran Van Hoa participated in a series of APEF (Asia-Pacific Economic Forum) VII conferences at
three well-known universities in
The local organisers involved in the preparation of the
APEF VII conference are Prof Seyed Komail Tayebi of the University of Isfahan
and Dr Mosayeb Pahlavani of the University of Sistan & Baluchestan in
Zahedan, and numerous pan-university and
institution associates. As a significant recognition of the importance of the
conference and its theme in the East and
More
than 1300 senior government officials, business
people, university staff and students attended the Opening Ceremony and Keynote
Speeches of the APEF VII conference at the University Sistan & Baluchestan in Zahedan. Experts from over 10 countries in Asia, India, Iran, other Middle East countries,
Oceania and the European Union participated to deliver 38 selected research
papers (out of a total of 100 papers submitted for presentation) covering a
wide range of topics on trade, economics, finance, technology and management in
East and West Asia, and the impact of
the current global financial crisis. Prof Tran Van Hoa delivered his keynote speech emphasizing the
opportunities and challenges of deepening East and
A
prominent session of the APEF VII conferences at the University of Sistan &
Baluchestan and the University of Isfahan was a Roundtable where
keynote speakers and the audience participated in discussions on major
contemporary issues of interest to future policy in East and West Asia. The
issues raised at the session included energy supply, demand and prices, the
importance of small and medium-size enterprises, the current interest by academic
and institutional experts and policy-makers on the architecture of regional
trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region, and most importantly, the impact of the US subprime or global financial crisis
(GFC) on both developed and developing economies world-wide. In his discussions, Prof Tran Van Hoa stated that it
is too early to assess the wide-spread and deep
damages of GFC, but he gave
an overall evidence-based picture of the potential economic, financial,
ideological and political damages of the GFC in all big and small economies
which many times surpass the decades-long gains from trade liberalisation and
growth, and reform. He also pointed out fortunately that good and appropriate
policy can attenuate these damages and spur future development and growth, and
recommended regional and global co-operation in finding appropriate solutions
on these. In his discussions, Prof Peter Lloyd, of the Grubel-Lloyd Intra-trade
Index fame, also concurred that a rethink of laisser-faire or extreme capitalism as a model of modern economic management policy with
government support may be necessary. Prof Ahmad Akbari emphasised the effects
of the GFC on economic slowdown
and oil revenue of the OPEC and
their contagion to other sectors of the economy (eg, education in
The photo
below records a Roundtable
session at the
In the two photos below
taken at the Opening Ceremony and Keynote Speeches in the Ferdowsi Hall on
campus at the University of Sistan & Baluchestan in Zahedan are some of the
1300 VIP guests and participants.
Some Key
Speakers at the APEF VII conference in Zahedan (photo below). From left to
right, sitting, Prof Ahmad Akbari; Prof Peter Lloyd; Prof Tran Van Hoa; and
Prof Hyun-Hoon Lee, Dean of Asia-Pacific Academy and an APEF Founding Member,
Kangwon National University, Korea.
In the
photo below taken at the Office of the Vice-Chancellor, University of Isfahan, are,
from left to right, Prof Charles Harvie; Prof Komail Tayebi, University of
Isfahan and APEF Local Chair; Prof Tran Van Hoa; Prof Hossein Harsij,
Vice-Chancellor, University of Isfahan; Prof Peter Lloyd; and Dr Nazende
Ozkaramete Coskun, Bikent University, Turkey.
The photo below
shows some of the audience at the APEF VII conference taking place at the
ECONOMIC,
TRADE AND POLITICAL ISSUES, AND PRIORITY
25-30 September 2008,
Tran Van Hoa participated recently in three
important high-level academic and policy meetings in
In the photo below taken in the historic
North Hall, Allahabad University, at the end of the Valedictory Session are
some keynote speakers at the conference (from left to right front row, Prof Alka Agarwal, Chair and AU Council Member, Department of Economics, Allahabad University; Prof Tran Van Hoa; Prof Rajen Harshe, Vice-Chancellor, Allahabad
University; Chief Justice (retired) Shri Prakash).
And some of the participants at the
conference during the keynote address by Tran Van Hoa.
Prof Tran Van Hoa also participated in a high-level policy RIS-ADB conference Emerging
Asian Regionalism: ASEAN-India FTA and Beyond, taking place on 29 Sept 2008 at the Viceregal, Claridge Hotel, New
Delhi, to present his key panel address on India and the ASEAN. The conference was jointly organised by RIS (Research and Information
System for Developing Economies, India’s government-funded top
think-tank) and the ADB (Asian Development Bank) and attended by H E Dr Jairam Ramesh, Minister of State
for Commerce and Power, Dr M Kawai, Dean, ADB Institute in Tokyo, India's elite
government officials and academics, and international embassy and business
representatives. In his
address, Tran Van Hoa gave an account of the recent past record of
India-ASEAN-World economic and trade relations, and, using the recent findings
based on his endogenous gravity theory, explored
these relations’ opportunities, obstacles, and prospects within the
framework of a plurilateral India-ASEAN FTA, and the East Asia Summit FTA as
proposed currently by the 16 EAS leaders. At the conference, the ADB launched its new publication Emerging Asian Regionalism: A
Partnership for Shared Prosperity, in which some aspects of integration of production, trade, financial
markets, and FDI in the ASEAN Plus were particularly paid attention to. The
conference was widely reported by the media.
In the photos below taken at the Viceregal
Hall, Claridge Hotel, in New Delhi, during the RIS-ADB conference are some
keynote speakers (Dr Rajesh Kumar,
Director-General, RIS; Dr M Kawai, Dean, ADB Institute; Dr Srinivasa Madhur,
Director, OREI, ADB).
And some of the participants.
In New Delhi, Professor Tran Van Hoa also gave a seminar on 30 Sept
2008 to staff and postgraduate students of the Centre
for International Trade and Development of the Jawaharlal Nehru University (India’s top university) to talk about the development of his endogenous
gravity theory and its applications to India’s and ASEAN’s economic
and trade issues particularly in a present climate of energy and financial crises,
and to offer possible solutions. The visit to the JNU was organised by Prof B B Bhattacharya, JNU Vice-Chancellor and a noted
economist and adviser to
In the photo below taken at the JNU seminar
are, front row, Prof Tran Van Hoa
and Prof Geeta Agarwal (Chairperson, CITD), and some postgraduate students.
20-21 June 2008
Korea Institute of
Public Finance,
Tran Van Hoa
attended the Korea and the World
Economy Conference VII in Korea during
20-21 June 2008 to deliver his research paper on the currently proposed Australia-Korea Free Trade Agreement, and to discuss papers at a plenary session on Official Development Assistance - Korea and the
Developing Countries. The conference (in the
series established at
In the photo
below at the farewell function at the Santorini in Chunchoen are (from left to
right) Prof Huyn-Hoon
Lee (Dean, Asia-Pacific Co-operation Academy, Kangwon
National University; local
organiser), Prof Chung-Moo Koo (President,
AKES; local organiser), Dr Bongkee Hahn (Vice Governor, Gangwon Provincial Government), Prof Sven W Arndt (Claremont
McKenna College, USA), and Prof Tran
Van Hoa.
INNOVATION
& TECHNOLOGY IN
POLICY
MODELLING TRAINING FOR ACADEMICS AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS
2 May
2008,
While the
role of econometric modelling for policy analysis (using say the methods of growth regression, panel regression, structural equation
modelling, and CGE/GTAP) has been
recognised and used in most developed and Western countries world-wide, an
appropriate modelling methodology with more credible or realistic outcomes for
use by corporate and government policy-makers in both developed and developing
countries alike is still to be developed. A new development with improved
features and outcomes in this field is the Generalised Gravity Theory proposed in 2002 and used successfully
since by Tran Van Hoa (eg, see the Journal of the Korean Economy, 2004) in many practical applications on economic, trade, FDI and service
studies in Asian economies (eg, China,
India, Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam) in recent years. This advanced
modelling tool has now been officially adopted by the Government of
In the photo below
taken at the training course are Prof Tran Van Hoa (second from left) and some
participants.
INNOVATION
AND TECHNOLOGY
AND THEIR
IMPACT IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
21-23
April 2008, United
Tran Van
Hoa attended the Second Conference of Micro Evidence on Innovation in Developing
Economies (MEIDE), on 21-23 April, 2008, at the Renmin University of China in
Beijing,
to deliver a paper on the Impact of Innovation &Technology Public
Expenditure on Development in China and India: An International Comparative
Study, and to chair a session. The Conference was jointly organised by the
In the photo below
taken at the end of the conference and in front of the Run Run Shaw Conference
Centre at
BASIC
PUBLIC SERVICES EQUALISATION IN
AN
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
China Institute for Reform and
Development (CIRD), 22-23 Feb 2008,
Tran Van Hoa was
invited to attend the international conference Basic Public Services for 1.3 Billion People during 22-23 Feb 2008 in Haikou to present his paper on China's Education and Development and Its Comparative Efficiency
Competitiveness with one of China's major economic and trade rivals in the
region, India. The conference was
organised by one of China's think-tanks, the China Institute for Reform and Development (CIRD), and with the collaboration of China International Centre for Economic and Technical Exchanges (CICETE)
and the United Nations Development Program (China). A wide range of 'hot' topics on major aspects of public services in
China, covering education, health care, rural and regional development,
urban-rural gaps, legal foundation, tax reform, and social security, were
discussed and debated by more than 250
senior academics and government officials (including two Vice Ministers) from
all over China and 17 international experts (eg, from Australia, France,
Sweden, the UK), UNDP Resident Representative and Senior Economist. The conference proceedings were nationally televised and reported by 21 mass media networks. In his paper and discussions, Prof Tran Van Hoa emphasised the
importance of not only public services input and capacity equalisation but,
more significantly, their outcomes and efficiency evaluation (a new policy
research direction mentioned at the conference by the UNDP (China) Representative, Mr Khalid Malik, and
endorsed by Vice-Minster of National Population and Family Planning Commission,
Dr Zhao Baige), and the relevance of regional
competitiveness (in this case, India's education and health care) in a
globalised economy where China is playing an increasingly influential role.
In the
photo below taken at the
Two photos showing some of the national and
international participants at the Conference.
IN MINISTERIAL TRADE POLICY
RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT
8-20 December 2007, Ministry
of Industry and Trade (MOIT),
Prof Tran Van Hoa of the Centre
for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES), Faculty of Business & Law, Victoria
University, led, during 8-20 December 2007, a number of Australian Research
Council-funded workshops in
major cities and provinces of Vietnam to present his work with the Vietnam
Institute for Trade (VIT), Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), on
implementing improvements in economic and trade policy in the country. The workshops were organised by VIT
(an Industry Partner in a 2004-2007 ARC Linkage Project) on Australia-Vietnam
Trade, co-managed by VIT Director-General, Prof
Dr Nguyen Van Lich), and endorsed
by H.E. Nguyen Van Linh, Vietnam Vice-Minister of Trade.
The workshops were attended by senior
university and trade college executives and academics, senior government
officials, and select postgraduate students. The work involves the
implementation of a new modelling policy approach, the so-called generalised gravity theory (GGT) introduced by Tran
Van Hoa in 2002, that provides significant improvements in modelling outcomes
and policy credibility and reliability to existing and popular approaches that are currently used in this field
by national and international institutions (e.g., universities and research
institutes) and organisations (e.g., the World Trade Organisation, the
International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank). A description of the GGT is given in an award-winning article in 2004 in
the Journal of the Korean Economy, published by
At the workshops, the
participants were introduced to the work's preliminary research and findings,
and informed of MOIT decision to adopt the GGT methodology for economic and
trade analysis and implementation at the practical and operational level by the
Ministry. The decision is highly
significant for global government governance in the sense of how relevant and
quality government policy background support in
In the photo below taken at
the meeting at the MOIT Headquarter in Hanoi on 20 December 2007 are H.E.
Nguyen Van Linh, Vice-Minister of Trade (on the left), and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
A record photo of the ARC-VIT
workshop at the VIT Headquarter in
A record photo of the ARC-VIT
workshop at
A record photo of the ARC-VIT
workshop at the College of Foreign Economic Relations, MOIT and Ministry of
Education and Training, Ho Chi Minh City, Southern Vietnam: Prof Tran Van Hoa
(left), and College Rector, Prof Dr Pham Chau Thanh (second from left), and
College academics and government participants.
A record photo of the ARC-VIT
workshop at the Provincial Office of Trade and Tourism, MOIT, Da Lat, Highland
A record photo of the ARC-VIT
workshop at
and
FOR TWO GIANTS IN
25-27 October 2007,
Tran Van Hoa attended the
90th Indian Economic Association Conference
at Kashmir University in India on 25-27 October 2007 to present his recent research findings on China-India trade relations and their impact on
India's growth, 'Look East' policy, economic diplomacy and regional cooperation. Since its devastating balance of payments crisis in
the early 1990s,
In the photo below taken on
campus in the Science Block at Kashmir University are, from left to right, Prof G K Chadha (Member of the
Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, and former Vice-Chancellor,
Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi), Prof
Tran Van Hoa, and Prof B B Bhattacharya
(Vice-Chancellor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi, and 2007 President,
Indian Economic Association)
The photo
below taken at the Opening Ceremony at the
Convocation Complex at
rEGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN
Issues in
31 July 2007,
While regional economic
integration has been strongly supported by the governments in the ASEAN Plus
region to promote trade, economic growth, poverty reduction and co-operation, major issues such as trade, investment and services in
a bilateral framework between China and Vietnam for example in an AFTA Plus scheme have not been adequately studied in
detail or reported at both the academic and policy level. These issues were
taken up by VIT and other ministries and academic and research institutions in
In the photo below taken at
the workshop are, from left to right, Prof Dr Nguyen Van Lich
(Director-General, VIT, and ARC Linkage Industry Partner), Dr Nguyen Manh Hung (Prime Minister Office), Ho Trung Thanh (standing, ARC
Linkage Project Manager, VIT), Prof Dr
Nguyen Van Thanh (Vice
Director-General, VIT), H E Le Van Dinh (Vice Minister, MOT), Prof Tran Van Hoa (ARC Linkage Chief
Investigator and Director, Vietnam and ASEAN Plus Research Program, Victoria
University, Australia), Prof Dr Nguyen
Mai (hidden, Ministry of Science and
Environment), and Prof Dr Nguyen
Van Huong (former President, National
Economics University, Hanoi).
In the photo below are
some of the participants including the media representatives at the workshop.
Issues in a Korea-Australia
FTA and Regional ODA
2-3 July 2007,
Tran Van Hoa attended the Korea and The World Economy International Conference
VI: Towards Asian Economic Community at
the University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia, on 2-3 July 2007, to present a
paper on Official Development
Assistance (ODA) Effectiveness in Asia.
Since the current debates on ODA effectiveness or ineffectiveness have been
based on aspects of political economy or methodologies that have been regarded
as simple or inadequate, the paper provides a new and suitable modelling
approach and substantive empirical findings to improve the quality of the debates.
The issue is important as in 2005, ODA reached $US107 billion and current and
former senior World Bank experts and consultants (eg, Sachs and Easterly)
working on the area are not sure about the ODA benefits and the effectiveness
of ODA modus operandi. The Korea and The World Conference series, organised
principally by Korea's largest economics association, the Association of the Korean Economic Studies (AKES), started in Korea in 2001 by a group of international academic
economists, trade experts and government officials to research on major issues
in Korea and their implications and relations to the rest of the world. About
50 people from 17 countries around the world participated in the Conference
which also attracted local and national media. Major issues in the currently
negotiated Korea-Australia FTA were also a major topic at the Conference.
In the photo below (Tran Van
Hoa, second from right) taken at the foyer of the Communications Centre at
Wollongong University before the Conference are AKES Council Members, key
participants and local and AKES organisers.
Eminent participants at the Korea and The
World Conference VI include H E Mr Chang-Boem Cho, Korea
Ambassador to Australia (right, photo at the Novotel below) and Prof
Robert Castle, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Wollongong University, left), and Prof
Tran Van Hoa.
The photo below taken in front of the
MacKinnon (a former Vice-Chancellor at Wollongong University) Building after
the farewell lunch at the Food Re-Thought restaurant at Wollongong University
shows some of the participants.
WHAT ARE NEW IN THE
ASIA-PACIFIC REGION?
30 June-1
July 2007,
While in Wollongong, Tran Van Hoa also attended, as an Executive Member and speaker, the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) International Conference VI, with the theme Asian Regionalism: Issues, Opportunities, Challenges and Outcomes, where he presented a paper on International Economic Integration in Asia: AFTA and WTO Memberships. The paper is acutely relevant to the current development in the Asia-Pacific and Oceania regions where, with the suspension of the WTO Doha Round negotiations in SARS Hong