TRAN VAN HOA

B.Ec (Hons), M.Ec., Ph.D.


http://www.staff.vu.edu.au/csesbl/images/TVH-905-E.jpg
 

Professor, College of Business, Victoria University, Australia

Professor, Faculty of Business, University of Wollongong, Australia

Director, Vietnam and East Asia Summit Research Program

PO Box 14428, Melbourne VIC 8001, Australia
Phone: 613 9919 1972, Fax: 613 9919 1350

Email: jimmy.tran@vu.edu.au, tvheco@uow.edu.au, jimmytran6@gmail.com

Honorary Professor, National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam
Honorary Professor, National Advanced Training Institute (NATI), Ministry of Trade, Vietnam

Executive and Editorial Board Member, Asian Forum on Business Education, Thailand

Editorial Board Member, International Economics Studies (Isfahan University), Iran

Editorial Board Member, Thammasat Review of Economic and Social Policy (Thammasat University), Thailand

 

INTERNATIONAL LISTING

Who's Who in the World

Who's Who in Science and Engineering

Who's Who in Asia and the Pacific Nations

2000 Outstanding People of the 20th Century

Who's Who in America

1000 Great Intellectuals of the 21st Century

Dictionary of International Biography

Australian Who's Who

Living Legends

Australian Directory of Professors

INTERNATIONAL AWARD & RECOGNITION

Association of the Korean Economic Studies (AKES) 2004 Best Paper Prize for the article Tran Van Hoa (2004),"Korea’s Trade, Growth of Trade and the World Economy in Post-crisis ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement: An Econometric and Policy Analysis", Journal of the  Korean Economy, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 73-108.

For Tran Van Hoa's Recent Profile in Vietnamese
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 BUSINESS AND CONSULTING EXPERIENCE


Director, T&M Enterprises P/L (Victoria, Australia)

Kobe Corporations, Orlando, USA

NSW Vietnam Chamber of Commerce

Australia Council

New South Wales Tax Taskforce

AusAID

Ministry of Commerce (Thailand)

Ministry of Trade (Vietnam)

Ford Foundation (USA)

ACIL-Cardno Australlia

United Nations UNESCAP

International Consultants Centre ICC, Melbourne

Sydney Management Centre

United Nations Development Program (China)

International Development Research Centre (Canada)

 

AREAS OF RESEARCH

International Business and Trade in Asia

Development Economics and Growth in Asia

Economic Policy Modelling

Business Forecasting in Asia

Business and Public Policy in Asia

ASEAN Economies and its Enlargement (East Asia Summit)

New Asian Regionalism

Welfare Economics

Energy Economics

Consumer Demand Studies

Econometric Theory and Analysis

Production Studies

International Finance

Competition Policy in Asian Economies

Macroeconomic Policy

Transition Economies in Asia

Asian Free Trade Agreements and WTO

Household Production and Economics

Climate Change and Growth in Asia

Corruption and Anti-corruption in Asia

Pro-Poor Development and Growth in Asia

CO2 Emissions and Economic Development in Asia

AREAS OF TEACHING

International Business

International Finance

Applied and Theoretical Econometrics

Econometric Modelling and Forecasts

Business Economics in Asia

Energy Economics

Competition Policy in Asian Economies

Trade and Investment in Asia

Microeconomics

Economics for Transition Economies

RECENT BOOKS ON ASIAN ECONOMIES

by TRAN VAN HOA

1         Tran Van Hoa (ed) (1997), Economic Development and Prospects in the ASEAN:  Foreign Investment and Growth in Vietnam, Thailand,  Indonesia and Malaysia. London: Macmillan.

2         Tran Van Hoa (with C Harvie) (1997), Vietnam’s Reforms and Economic Growth, London: Macmillan.

3         Tran Van Hoa (ed) (1999), Sectoral Analysis of Trade, Investment and Business in Vietnam, London: Macmillan.

4         Tran Van Hoa and C. Harvie (eds) (2000), Causes and Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis, London: Macmillan

5         Tran Van Hoa (ed) (2000), Prospects for Trade, Investment and Business in Vietnam and East Asia, London: Macmillan.

6         Tran Van Hoa (ed) (2000), The Asia Crisis: The Cures, Their Effectiveness and The Prospects After, London: Macmillan.

7         Tran Van Hoa, Vietnam: Market Intelligence and Business Analysis, London: Macmillan, in preparation.

8         Tran Van Hoa, (2000) The Social Impact of the Asia Crisis, London: Macmillan.

9         Tran Van Hoa (2000), China's Trade and Investment After the Asia Crisis, London: Edward Elgar.

10     Tran Van Hoa (2001), The Asia Recovery, London: Edward Elgar.

11     Tran Van Hoa (2002), Economic Crisis Management, London: Edward Elgar.

12     Tran Van Hoa (2003), Competition Policy in Major Asian Economies, London: Edward Elgar.

13     Tran Van Hoa and C. Harvie (2003), New Asian Regionalism: Responses to Globalisation and Crises, New York: Edward Elgar.

14     Tran Van Hoa (with C Harvie), The Economic Development in Transition Economies, London: Edward Elgar, in preparation.

15     Tran Van Hoa, P Q Thao, V T Dung and L H An (2004), Competition Law and Policy in Major Economies in Asia and Vietnam (in Vietnamese), NATI, Ministry of Trade, Hanoi. 

16     Tran Van Hoa (2005), Household Production. Consumer Behaviour and Economic Policy, London: Ashgate.

17     Tran Van Hoa and N V Lich (2006), ASEAN+3 and Its Impact on Vietnam's Economy (in Vietnamese), World

Publishing House, Hanoi, Vietnam.

18     Tran Van Hoa and N V Lich (2007), Business Opportunities in Vietnam After WTO Membership, World Publishing

House,  Hanoi, Vietnam.

19     Tran Van Hoa and N V Lich (2007), WTO Impact on Regional Vietnam, World Publishing House, Hanoi, Vietnam.

20     Tran Van Hoa and C Harvie (2008), Regional Trade Agreements in Asia, London and New York: Edward Elgar.

2

        2015

RECENT WORK & ACTIVITIES

Understanding what drives the performance of foreign investment enterprises in Vietnam

Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland, 14 September 2018

Tran Van Hoa attended the 2018 Econometric Research in Finance Network (ERFIN) workshop on 14 September 2018 in Warsaw, Poland, to present his recent work on the determinants of the high performance of foreign investment enterprises in Vietnam. This recent work uses updated data from Vietnam National Office of Statistics and is an extension of his previous work which has received wide international interest and references. The workshop was organised annually by the prestigious Warsaw School of Economics to showcase and disseminate recent econometric research in finance and related areas. About 50 academic and researchers from 20 countries participated in the workshop and 26 papers were presented and discussed. The Warsaw School of Economics also publishes its professional journal Econometric Research in Finance where selected papers presented at the workshop are published.

 

CGE Modelling of Japan's ODA Impact on the AEC Economies

Japanese Association of Applied Economics, Tokai University, Tokyo, 28-29 October 2017

Tran Van Hoa participated in the Japanese Association of Applied Economics Autumn Conference at Tokai University in Tokyo on 28 October 2017 to present with Dr Kitti Limskul their paper Japan's ODA Impact on the AEC Economies: A CGE Modelling Analysis. The paper is an extension of their econometric paper on Japan's ODA and the CLMV Countries presented at the CU-ASEAN Symposium on 8 August 2017 at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand. The Tokai paper is being prepared for publication as a monograph by an international publisher.

While in Japan, Tran Van Hoa also gave a seminar at Saitama University on 2 November 2017 on Vietnam's Dynamic Growth, Regional Trade Relations, Opportunities, Challenges and Causality, and a special lecture to international postgraduate students on Econometric Modelling: An Overview.

 

Japan's ODA in CLMV Economies: Effectiveness and Polittical Economy

Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, Hanoi, 29-30 June 2017

 

Tran Van Hoa attended the Korea and the World Economy XIV international conference in Hanoi on 29-30 June 2017 to deliver his joint paper (with Kitti Limskul) on Japan's ODA in the CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) Economies: Aid Effectiveness and Political Economy.  The conference was organised by the Association of Korean Economic Studies (AKES), hosted by Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS) and oficially openned by the Chairman of VASS and the President of AKES. More than 70 experts and postgraduate students particiapted in the conference which covered a wide range of topics from climate change, poverty, social welfare and income distribution to monetary and financial policy and foreign trade. In the paper Prof Tran presented his econometric research findings on the weak effectiveness of Japan's declining ODA to the CLMV countries in recent years and on how these can be accommodated by political economy of foreign aid since the beginning of the Marshall aid project after WWII or by long-term prospect and supply side considerations. The findings are useful for policy making by important new Asian donors such as China, Korea and Thailand and their aid outcome, investment and co-operation expectations.

In the photo below are some key members of the conference (from left to right), Prof Komail Tayebi (Isfahan University, Iran), Prof Tran Van Hoa (Victoria University, Australia), Prof Shin-ichi Fukuda (Tokyo University, Japan), Prof Chung-Moo Koo (Kangwon National University, Korea), Prof Kar-yiu Wong (Washington University, USA), and Prof Hsu Chen-Min (National Taiwan University, Taiwan).

In the photo below are some participants at the openning of the conference at VASS headquarter in Hanoi (Prof Tran, 7th from left).

 

 CONVENTION ON HOCHIMINH CITY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Hochiminh City, 14-16 November 2016

Tran Van Hoa was invited to participate in the Convention, organised by Vietnam Ministry of Foreign Affairs and National Committee for Overseas Vietnamese, to attract global inputs to assist the sustainable development of Hochiminh City, the vibrant commercial centre with big investment, urbanisation, and environment issues of Vietnam. Tran Van Hoa's contribution was a paper on Optimal Investment Strategies for FDI Enterprises in Vietnam: An Econometric Analysis in which strategic recommendations based on econometric modelling with 2001-2014 Vietnam enterprises survey data were offered for FDI business management. About 500 delegates from 29 countries attended the convention. Representing the Government of Vietnam at the Convention included Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Senior National and Hochiminh City Government Officials.  

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA (UNECA) AND IDIAN OCEAN RIM ASSOCIATION (IORA) WORKSHOP ON REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS

Ebene, 4-6 November 2015

Representatives of the 20 countries in the IORA region participated in the workshop on the Contributions of Preferential Trade Agreements to Equitable and Sustainable Trade. The workshop was jointly organised by the UNECA and IORA (led by Prof V N Atri, Chair of Indian Ocean Studies), and took place on 4-6 November 2015 in Ebene, Mauritius. The main objective of the workshop was to review the proliferation, benefits and challenges of preferential and regional trade agreements that have been widespread globally and especially their implications for similar agreements and co-operation in the IORA region. Tran Van Hoa was invited to prepare a paper on the Economic Impact of Regional Trade Agreements based on Econometric Evidence. The paper provided a new approach to impact analysis with improved features on outcomes and credibility over current approaches, and was importantly based on economic integration theory, the fundamental structure of preferential and regional trade agreements. Application of the new approach to China to study the economic impact of trade agreements on the country's economic growth and trade was also provided.

MEKONG RIVER SUB-REGION RESEARCH COLLABORATION

College of Business, Victoria University, Melbourne, 13 July 2015

 

The interest in the Mekong River Subregion (MRS) that involves five ASEAN economies (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam) and China has a long history and robust regional appeal. It  was initiated by Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and has had a focus for action plans in the Asian Development Bank. The current funding by Canada’s International Centre for Development Research (ICDR) to Kunming University of Science and Technology (KUST), Yunnan, China, to carry out research on the impact of China’s FDI in the region is a new and interesting funding initiative from North America. Prof Li Erping and Associate Prof Bin Xiong from the Department of Management and Economics, KUST, visited Prof Tran Van Hoa, College of Business, Victoria University, in Melbourne, on 13 July 2015. The visit was to exchange ideas and to explore future research and training collaboration between Australia and the MRS on broader issues of regional integration not only in the MRS but also in the ASEAN generally. The prospects of these potential activities in the near future and with the further support of national and international sponsors are considered good.

 

In the photo below are, from left to right, Associate Prof Bin Xiong, Prof Peter Sheehan, Research Director, Victoria Institute for Strategic Economic Studies (VISES), College of Business, Victoria University, and Prof Li Erping.

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Below is a photo of Associate Prof Bin Xiong with a Melbourne Landmark, the Yarra River.

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ENERGY SUBSIDY REFORMS IN THE ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY

27 Feb-1 March 2015, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand

Prof Tran Van Hoa and Associate Prof Kitti Limskul attended as senior experts the Energy Market Integration Forum at Princess Pathunam Hotel, Bangkok, during 27 Feb - 1 March 2015. The Forum was organised by the Asian Studies Centre (ASC), Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, and led by Prof Nawal Karmel (see photo below), Visiting Professor at Chulalongkorn University, with the support from the ASC and Norway Department of Foreign Affairs. The objectives of the Forum were to gather energy academic and government experts from the ten ASEAN countries to discuss the use of advanced econometric modelling and computable general equilibrium to explore the effects of energy subsidy reforms including compensation policy on economic development, poverty, the environment and regional integration in these countries. The focus of the project was the first of its kind for the totality of the ASEAN region and its research findings by young emerging energy experts representing the region would greatly benefit capacity building and energy policy-making in the ASEAN Economic Community. Experts from the ten ASEAN countries and senior officials from the ASEAN Energy Centre and related organisations in Thailand and the US participated in the Forum. 

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ASEAN-AUSTRALIA YOUTH SUMMIT 2014

William Angliss Institute, Melbourne 11 October 2014

Tran Van Hoa attended the Third ASEAN-Australia Youth Summit at the William Angliss Institute in Melbourne on 11 October 2014 to deliver a keynote address Globalisation and Impact on Business Performance in Vietnam and the ASEAN Countries. The Summit was organised by the ASEAN Students Association in Australia which has been established by international students to enhance further the relationship between Australia and the ASEAN region with a special focus on the person-to-person level. This focus is an important supplement to the government-to-government and business-to-business levels which currently exist formally and informally. Invited speakers included senior government officials, eminent economists, social scientists and political economy experts. Consular representatives from major ASEAN countries in Melbourne and about 100 students participated in the conference.

In the photo below is Prof Tran Van Hoa among the ASEAN flags at the William Angliss Conference Hall.

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 THE ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION: THE THIRD JOINT CONFERENCES

Korea Institute of International Economics and Industry (KIET), Seoul, 18-19 September 2014

Tran Van Hoa attended the Third Twin (Joint) Conferences of the Asia-Pacific Economic Association (APEA), taking place on 18-19 September 2014 at the KIET Conference Hall in Seoul, to present the paper Trade, Growth and CO2 Emissions in China: Evidence from an Econometric Integration Model. The Conferences were organised by the APEA with sponsorship from KIET, a Korea think-tank, to look at major issues and current research on China and the world. About 30 senior academics from 12 countries in Asia and Europe and senior government and Asian Development Bank officials participated.

In the photo below was taken at the opening of the Conferences in the KIET Conference Hall. From left to right, Prof Karyiu Wong (APEA President) and Prof Kim Dosoon (KIET President).

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WHAT CAUSES MIGRATION AMONG THE ASEAN COUNTRIES?

Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand, 9-10 August 2014, and

Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA), Hanoi, 11-12 August 2014, Vietnam

 

Recent migration among the ASEAN countries and with relevance to Australia in one case has caused enormous regional political, social and economic concerns and national policy changes at the highest level of government. While the causes of the surging inter-country migration are numerous from approved business people and students to informal asylum seekers and illegal economic migrants, a rigorous study of the fundamental causes of inter-ASEAN plus migration from an econometric modelling perspective with long time-series ad cross-section data (available from the Asian Development Bank) is currently lacking. Prof Tran Van Hoa participated in a new and important NESDB-funded project on Inter-ASEAN migration causality, led by Assosiate Professor Kitti Limskul, Director of Chulalongkorn Econometric Modelling Forecasting Program and former Vice-Minister of Education and Finance. The project was based at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, Thailand. 

 

Associate partners of the project include senior academics and government officials from Thailand (Thammasat University), Vietnam [Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) and the Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs, MOLISA] and Australia (Victoria University and the University of Wollongong. A report has been prepared by Prof Limskul and submitted to the project sponsor, Thailand’s National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB). A discussion paper has also been prepared by Prof Tran Van Hoa for information and feedback.

 

The photo below records a meeting at the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), Ministry of Planning and Investment between the NESDB Project Leader, Associate Prof Kitti Limskul, Dr Nattapong Nattapong, Thammasat University, Thailand , and Dr Nguyen Manh Hai, Director of Public Policy Department, CIEM, in Hanoi, on 12 August 2014.

 

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VIETNAMESE DIASPORA AND AUSTRALIA-VIETNAM BUSINESS

2 January 2014, Tho Tho, Melbourne

 

Prof Tran Van Hoa attended the farewell dinner at Tho Tho, Mebourne, on 2 January 2014, in honour of HE Hoang Vinh Thanh, Vietnamese Ambassador to Australia, at the conclusion of his three-year posting in Canberra. The dinner was organised by the Vietnamese Business Association of Australia (VBAA) which was set up in 2010 by Vietnamese businesses in Victoria to use their profile and successes to promote and foster business and relations between Australia and Vietnam for mutual benefits. VBAA follows the model of ethnic diaspora that uses its human resources and comparative advantages to help build strong and prosperous trade, business and cultural relations between the adopted country and its origin country. The model has been used successfully in other countries by major diasporas (e.g. Chinese, Indian, and Jewish) around the world. VBAA members include business people and academics. Ambassador Thanh has been actively associated with VBAA since its launch at the Marriott Hotel in Melbourne in 2010. The dinner was attended by the VBAA executive members and more than 30 Australian and Vietnamese business people and academics. At the dinner, Ambassador Thanh was made a permanent honorary executive member of VBAA to continue his contribution to the activities of the association.

 

In the photo below are some participants at the farewell dinner, from left to right, Mr Nguyen Van Thuong (businessman), Mr Tran Ba Phuc

 

Ambassador

 

In the photo below are some other participants at the farewell dinner.

 

 

EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM

14-15 December 2013

Pullman Hotel, Hanoi, Vietnam

 

Prof Tran Van Hoa attended, as an invited key speaker, the Inaugural Vietnam National Alumni Conference taking place on 14-15 December 2013 at the Pullman Hotel in Hanoi. The conference was organized to celebrate the 40th Anniversary of the Australia-Vietnam Diplomatic Relations by the Australian Embassy and Australia Awards (Endeavour Scholarships and Fellowships), and sponsored by a number of national and international institutions and corporations. These included Vietnam Ministry of Education and Training (MOET) and RMIT Vietnam. The purposes of the conference for nationally selected higher-education participants were education and development and to foster collaboration between high-profile academics, high-achievement alumni and tertiary institutions in Australia and Vietnam and to explore future directions for mutual benefits.

 

The focus themes of the conference were wide-ranging covering agriculture, economic integration, education, environment, health and human resources. Seven eminent scholars representing six Australian universities with expertise and active support in these fields (Melbourne, Sydney, Queensland, Queensland University of Technology, Curtin and Victoria University via College of Business  Centre for Strategic Economic Studies) were invited to participate and to lead discussions.

 

Prof Tran Van Hoa delivered a keynote paper on the theme “Economic Integration” with analysis and discussion on the opportunities and challenges of the currently politically high-focus Trans-Pacific Partnership for Australia and Vietnam economic and trade relations. He was subsequently interviewed by three national print media outlets and Vietnam National TV Channel 10 on these issues and their prospects.

 

The conference was attended by more than 550 participants who were some of the 20,000 Vietnamese graduates from Australian universities and who are holding high positions in Vietnam. Active debates followed all paper presentations. The conference’s activities were nationally televised. Conference proceedings are being prepared for publications for wide dissemination by the conference organizers.

 

In the photo below taken at the launch of the VNAC2013 conference are, from left to right, Mr Phillip Stonehouse (Charge d’Affairs, Australian Embassy, Hanoi), HE Tran Quang Quy, (Vice-Minister, Vietnam Ministry of Education and Training) and Prof Geoff Gallop AC (Dean, Graduate School of Government, University of Sydney, and former Premier of Western Australia).

 

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In the photo below are some of more than 550 participants at the conference at Pullman Hotel, Hanoi.

 

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Following the VNAC2013 conference, Tran Van Hoa also attended, as an invited key discussant, the International Conference on Private Sector Development in Vietnam with Australian Experience at the nationally top-ranked Foreign Trade University in Hanoi.

OPPORTUNITIES FOR REGIONAL ECONOMIES IN THE ASIAN CENTURY

7-8 August 2013, Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre

Tran Van Hoa attended the conference Victoria and the Asian Century on 8-9 August 2013 at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre. The conference was organised by Victoria University, Melbourne University Asialink Centre, Committee for Melbourne, and the Age (Fairfax Media). Several distinguished Australian speakers from the academia (eg, Prof Ed Byrne, Monash University Vice-Chancellor), state and federal governments (the Hon Bill Shorten, MP), the media (eg, John Garnaut, The Age) and the business community (eg, Mark Laurie, PricewaterhouseCoopers) presented their studies and perceptions on the effects of major Asian economies (chiefly China) on the regional (state) economies (mainly Victoria) and their important policy implications. More than 250 people participated in the conference.

Most of these presentations pointed out rightly the opportunities for regional economies in the Asian century. It was noticed however that not much was focused on why, given that deeper engagement between these economies and Asia was important, there have been continuing delays, at the government level, in the completion of important bilateral trade negotiations in the region such as the Australia-China, Australia-Japan and Australia-Korea free trade agreements. In addition, significant obstacles to this engagement caused by regional and global financial crises and natural disasters, while reflected in statistical data and policy forums, had also been neglected. 

ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC FORUM (APEF) CONFERENCE XI:

International Banking, Foreign Trade and SME Financing in the Asia-Pacific

Tehran 18-20 December 2012

The APEF XI conference took place in Tehran on 18-20 December 2012. It was sponsored by a consortium of institutions including the University of Isfahan, University of Tehran, the Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Iran Research Organisation for Science and Technology, and a number of corporations. More than 130 academics and experts from six countries and postgraduate students participated in the conference. Fourteen papers and two keynote addresses covering a wide range of topics from banking, finance, access to SME finance in East Asia, the role of foreign direct investment in enterprise performance, the state of trade multilaterism, Asia-Pacific trade relations, economic development, youth unemployment in Korea, and entrepreneurship and globalisation were presented and discussed. Tran Van Hoa delivered a paper on analysing and modelling the causes of high-growth high-profit enterprises in developing countries facing intense globalisation with a focus on foreign-invested companies in Vietnam.

In the photo below are some key members of the APEF XI Program Committee, from left to right, Prof Tran Van Hoa (Director, Vietnam and East Asia Summit Research Program, Australia), Dr Ali Hasanzadeh, (Deputy Director, MBRI), Dr Farhad Nili (Director, MBRI), Prof Peter Lloyd (APEF President, Melbourne University), and Prof V N Atri (Kurukshetra University, India). 

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In the photo below are some of the participants at the Conference.

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THE FUTURE OF ECONOMICS

Victoria University, Australia, 12-15 July 2012

Tran Van Hoa participated as Co-chair of the Scientific Committee in the Australian Economic Society's 41st Annual Conference, hosted by the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, at its Flinders St Campus and the Federal Squares on 12- 15 July 2012. Due to the declining trend in economics enrolments at universities world-wide in spite of the still deep influence of the field on government policy making and management, the theme of the Conference was selected appropriately by the Conference Committee as The Future of Economics: Research, Relevance and Policy. More than 250 papers were submitted to the Conference covering the five major fields of General Theory, Climate Change and Resources, Microeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Policy, and Welfare Issues. After a rigorous peer-review process, more than 180 papers were subsequently accepted for presentation and publication as a conference proceedings volume (Editors: Prof Tran Van Hoa and Dr Jamie Doughney). Ten distinguished national and international speakers including a Nobel Prize winner and more than 400 people participated in the conference. 

 

IMPACT OF CHINA’S EXPORTS & GROWTH ON AUSTRALIA, INDONESIA, THAILAND & VIETNAM

13 December 2011, Vietnam Institute for Trade, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Hanoi

Tran Van Hoa attended the final workshop for the Australian Research Council-funded Project China’s Exports and Growth and Major East Asia Summit Economies: Exploring Policy Responses for Policy Analysis that took place on 13 December 2011 at the headquarter of Vietnam Institute for Trade in Hanoi. The workshop was organised by the VIT (Partner Industry) with the collaboration of the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University (Administering Organisation), and TradeData International P/L (Melbourne, Partner Industry) to report on the final findings of the project’s 2009-2011 research. Representing China at the workshop to give the country’s opening-up perspective and its implications for China-Vietnam economic and trade policy was Prof Junfang Xi from the prestigious Shanghai Jiaotong University. In his report, Prof Tran Van Hoa presented a picture of historical economic and trade movements between China and Australia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, and illustrated how these statistics are related to the rise of China’s exports and growth and the resulting policy concerns of these in major South East Asian and Oceania economies. Policy recommendations were then derived from an econometric modelling study using the endogenous growth and trade theory approach. Over 40 government experts and university academics participated in the workshop.

In the photo, VIT Director-General, Prof Dr Dinh Van Thanh (standing), welcomed the participants and opened the workshop

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In the photo below are Prof Xi (1st, front row, Shanghai Jiaotong University, China), Prof Tran Van Hoa (2nd, front row), and some participants

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8TH CONFERENCE ON SME AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

9-11 November 2011, Khon Kaen University, Nong Khai Campus, Thailand

Tran Van Hoa attended the 8th Conference on the SMEs in a Global Economy: Rising to the Global Challenges – Entrepreneurship and SME Development in Asia to deliver his keynote address Causality and Growth Enterprises: Entrepreneurship and Globalisation. The Conference was organised by Khon Kaen University, Nong Khai Campus, and took place on 9-11 November 2011. The Conference was initiated in 2002 by the University of Wollongong and was followed by subsequent series of such conferences in Malaysia, Japan, China and Thailand, besides Australia. It has attracted co-organisers from the University of Senshu (Japan), Beijing Information, Science and Technology University (China), and Universiti Teknologi, MARA (Malaysia). The aim of the Conference is to bring together professionals, workers in universities, entrepreneurs, practitioners and scholars from all around the world to provide a platform to discuss and analyse the prospects, challenges and opportunities faced by the regional SMEs in the wake of globalisation.

More than 60 experts and postgraduate students from eleven countries (Australia, China, Germany, India, Iran, Laos, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, United Kingdom and Vietnam) participated in the 8th Conference. The topics presented and hotly discussed included SME financing, SME development in Asia, the causes of growth enterprises in Vietnam, the global financial crisis and SMEs, critical issues facing SMEs and practical policy measures, among others.

In the photo below taken before the Conference’s Opening Ceremony in the Khon Kaen University Nong Khai Campus conference hall are, from left to right, Dr Surapon Saensouk (Director, Nong Khai Campus, Khon Kaen University), Prof Tran Van Hoa, and Dr Thanet Wattanakul (Head, Department of Economics, Nong Khai Campus, Khon Kaen University, and Conference Organiser).

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In the photo below are some participants at the Conference: (from left to right) Prof Tran Van Hoa (1st), Dr Michael Schaper (2nd, Deputy Chair, Australian Competition and Consumer Commission), Prof Robert Blackburn (3rd, Kingston University, UK, and Editor-in-Chief, International Small Business Journal), Assoc Prof Charles Harvie (4th, Conference Advisory Board Member and  Head, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Australia), and Assoc Prof Phouphet Kyophilavong (6th, National University of Laos).

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ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC FORUM: INTERNATIONAL TRADE, ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND CRISES

18-20 October 2011, Faculty of Entrepreneurship, University of Tehran

Tran Van Hoa attended as a Program Committee member and presented a paper on Trade and Entrepreneurship in Growth Enterprises at the 10th conference of the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) that took place on 18-20 October 2011 at the University of Tehran, Iran. The theme of the conference was International Trade and Entrepreneurship: Issues for Post-crisis Sustainable Development in Asia. The conference was organised jointly by Dr Mostafa Razavi, Faculty of Entrepreneurship, University of Tehran, and Prof Komail Tayebi, University of Isfahan, in collaboration and with the sponsorship from the Center for International Scientific Studies and Collaboration, Science and Technology Park, Ports and Marine Administration of Guilan Province, and Isfahan Chamber of Commerce and Industries & Mines.

The conference was significant as it was the APEF’s 10th anniversary meeting and the original APEF focus on international trade, investment, economic integration and growth has been extended to entrepreneurship and management and their inter-linkage in a global context. More than 70 experts and postgraduate students from international organisations (Asian Development Bank and Bank of China) and ten countries (Australia, China, France, India, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, New Zealand, Philippines and the US) participated and presented their research papers on various aspects of trade, economic development, crises and entrepreneurship. A session of PhD thesis proposals was also organised for presentation and feedback as part of the conference’s training focus.

In the photos below are some participants at the Opening Ceremony in the UT Scientific Technology Park Hall (photo 1) and in a conference session in the Faculty of Entrepreneurship Conference Hall (photo 2).

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Below is a photo of the conference session break taken in the Faculty of Entrepreneurship garden. From left to right, Prof Komail Tayebi (Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan), Dr Mostafa Razavi (Dean, Faculty of Entrepreneurship, University of Tehran), and Prof Tran Van Hoa.

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AFTA TAX TREATY & AUSTRALIA-VIETNAM COMPREHENSIVE PARTNERSHIP

Hanoi, 13 April 2011, Ministry of Industry & Trade

Tran Van Hoa attended a workshop on 13 April 2011 at the Institute for Trade (VIT) to discuss the progress reports of a 2011-2012 research project Global Crises, Economic Integration and Australia-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership funded by the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia (ASSA), International Science Linkage scheme. The project is a joint research between the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES) at Victoria University and the VIT to support Australia’s innovation competitiveness internationalization and research path of new doctoral graduates in the region. Participating at the workshop was Prof E Phijaisanit, Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, who presented a paper on the implications of AFTA tax treaties on government tax revenue and on appropriate policy options. Over 30 government officials from the MOIT and the Ministry of Finance attended the workshop.

In the photo below are some participants (front row, Tran Van Hoa, 1st, and Prof Phijjaisanit, 3rd) at the workshop.

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INDIA & CHINA IN GLOBAL ECONOMY

Kurukshetra University, India, 3-14 March 2011

India and China have recently emerged as two major political and economic powers in Asia with growing global influence. Studies and policy analysis of these two countries and their strategic comparison have become intensive worldwide and specially in the East Asia Summit region. Early in March, Tran Van Hoa visited a number of universities in India for collaborative research, research development and to participate in a number of conferences on various themes of current national and international significance. These include the focus on India and China and also on India and the ASEAN and their role and importance in global economy.

During 3-14 March, he visited the Department of Economics at Kurukshetra University in Haryana, India, as a Visiting Professor, to give special lectures to postgraduates and to contribute to the development of the Research Institute for India-China Studies being prepared by Prof V N Atri, co-ordinator of the Indian Government Special Assistance Program. While there, he was also a Guest of Honour and gave an Inaugural Address on “India and China: Regional Rivals or Partners?” at the international conference on “India and China in Global Economy”, organised by the Deparment and taking place on 4-5 March. Over 250 experts and students participated in the conference, and the proceedings and subsequent interviews were widely reported in the media.

During March. Tran Van Hoa also gave a Keynote Address and was a Policy Panelist at the international conference on “Changing Structure of International Trade and Investment” taking place on 2-3 March at Jamia Millia Ismalia University in Delhi. He was also a Keynote Speaker at the national conference “Development and Inclusive Growth” organised by Kurukshetra University College on 10-11 March, and a Guest of Honour and Keynote Speaker at the national conference on “The Global Recession and Growth” on 13 March and organised by the University College at Meerut University in Meerut, UP.

Below is a piece in the Tribunes on the International Conference at Kurukshetra University 4-5 March 2011.

The photo below taken at the Inaugural Session of the conference at Kurukshetra University Senate Hall shows some of the participants.

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The photos below show a meeting with Meerut University Vice-Chancellor, Prof K N Tangeni (centre) with Prof V N Atri (1st), and some of the participants at the Meerut University College conference.

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PRACTICAL ISSUES WITH CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Melbourne, 24 February 2011

The Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES) and Tran Van Hoa have been involved in a number of years in extensive research and policy analysis on energy and climate change issues. Collaboration by a number of countries in Asia with the CSES on these issues is currently active. On 24 February, Tran Van Hoa and CSES staff hosted a 10-member delegation of Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) to discuss various practical issues on climate change, mitigation and compensation in Vietnam and the appropriate lessons from Australia. A lively exchange of information, policy, regional responses, and the difficulties involved in practical implementation of climate change policy in Vietnam and Australia was generated and well discussed and received. A follow-up of the issues discussed and future collaborative arrangements have also been agreed to.

The photo below taken at the Meeting Room at CSES shows some members of the MONRE delegation during discussion.

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ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC FORUM (APEF) IX INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

Renmin University of China, Beijing, 28-29 October 2010

Tran Van Hoa participated in the APEF IX International Conference taking place at Renmin University of China (RUC) on 28-29 October 2010. The conference was in a series of annual APEF conferences on contemporary international economic, trade and investment issues, founded by a select group of academic and government experts at the Kangwon National University in Chunchoen, Korea, in 2001. The APEF IX conference had the theme The Global Financial Crisis and East Asia Economic Development, and was organised by Prof Zhao Yanyun, Dean of the School of Statistics at RUC.

In the photo below taken at the end of the conference in the Ming De Building at RUC are, from left to right, sitting, Prof John Junggun Oh (1st, Korea University and East Asia Monetary Institute), Prof Komail Tayebi (2nd, University of Isfahan, Iran), Prof Tran Van Hoa (3rd), Prof Zhao Yanyun (4th), Prof Mostafa Razavi ((5th, Dean, Faculty of Entrepreneurship, University of Tehran, Iran), Prof Chung-mo Koo (6th, Kangwon National University, Korea), Prof Eiji Ogawa (7th , Dean, Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Japan) and some of the participants (standing).

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KOREA ENGAGEMENT WITH THE ASEAN

KIEP, Seoul, Korea 7 October 2010

Tran Van Hoa was invited to participate in an international conference on The Changing Landscape of the ASEAN and Korea-ASEAN Co-operation to present a paper on Korea-ASEAN Co-operation: Challenges and Opportunities. The conference was organised by The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), a research department of Korea’s Prime Minister, with the sponsorship from the National Research Council for Economics, Humanities and Social Sciences (NRCS). Its objectives were to get together prominent experts from Korea and major ASEAN countries including Australia to review the current state of development in the ASEAN, their co-operation with Korea, and to offer an effective way forward. Over 30 experts and students participated.

In the photo below taken at the Park Hyatt Hotel in Seoul at the end of the conference are Prof Tran Van Hoa (extreme right) some of the key participants.

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CHINA AND THE WORLD ECONOMY

Peking University, Beijing, 16-17 Sept 2010

Tran Van Hoa attended the China and the World Economy conference at Peking University to deliver his paper (co-authored Prof Zong Ming Tang, Shanghai Jiaotong University) on China’s exports and their impact on regional economies. The conference was jointly organised by Peking University and Oxford University to present new research on China and its major contemporary micro, macro and finance issues. Over 70 academics, government officials and other experts from China and several other countries in Australasia and the European Union participated and discussed their findings. A total of 40 papers were presented at symposia and scientific sessions.

In the photo below taken at the conference gathering are, from left to right, Dr Xiaolan Fu (Oxford University and Conference Co-organiser), Prof Tran Van Hoa, and Prof John Knight (Oxford University).

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IMPACT OF CHINA’S GROWTH AND EXPORTS ON VIETNAM INDUSTRIES & THAILAND ECONOMY

25 August 2010, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Hanoi

 

The growing economy of China and its ever rising exports to the world have generated serious impact concerns by leaders in world economy and especially in the major economies (such as Australia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam) in the East Asia Summit region. Prof Tran Van Hoa (Chief Investigator) and Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT, Partner Investigator) organised their six-monthly research progress workshop on 25 Aug 2010 at the VIT Headquarters in Hanoi to report and discuss their 2009-2011 ARC Linkage-funded research work on these impact issues but especially with respect to Vietnam’s industrial sectors and Thailand’s trade and economy.

The workshop was attended by more than 40 experts from the MOIT and notably by Prof Dr Kitti Limskul of Chulalongkorn University, Thailand, where he is Director of the Econometric Forecasting Modelling Research Program and the highly-respected Masters of Arts in Labour Economics and Human Resources (MALHR). Dr Limskul was also Thailand’s Vice-Minister of Education and then Finance in the Government of Thailand and his insightful inputs for a major economy in the East Asia Summit group were particularly relevant and appreciated.

 

In the photos below taken at the workshop were the Opening Address by VIT Director-General, Assoc Prof Dr Dinh Van Thanh (standing, photo 1), Prof Dr Kitti Limskul (3rd front row, photo 2), and some other participants (photo 3).

 

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AUSTRALIA-VIETNAM BUSINESS &

TRADE PROMOTION

3 July 2010, Marriott Hotel, Melbourne

 

Tran Van Hoa attended as an Executive Member the Inaugural Meeting of the Vietnamese Business Association of Australia (VBAA) at the Marriott Hotel in Melbourne on 3 July 2010. Other VIP guests include H.E. Hoang Vinh Thanh, Vietnam Ambassador to Australia, senior staff from Vietnam Consulate-General in Sydney, Vietnam Trade Office (VTO), Vietnam Airlines, and major Vietnamese business executives in Melbourne.  More than 100 people attended the Meeting.  Currently, VBAA has 200 business members and 50 associate members.

The VBAA has been established to meet the needs of Vietnamese-Australian and Vietnamese business people to promote and strengthen bilateral SME businesses and trade between Australia and Vietnam for mutual benefits. Australia-Vietnam relations have grown in the past three decades and their two-way trade has increased rapidly in recent years, reaching nearly $A7 billions in 2009 (according to the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade). This imbalance bilateral trade has however been in favour of Vietnam. A purpose of VBAA is to rectify to some extent this deficit trade for Australia. In its operation, VBAA will co-operate closely with the VTO in Sydney which is an official office representing Vietnam Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) trade promotion in Australia. The VBAA, together with the Australia-Vietnam Chamber of Commerce (based in New South Wales), are two important business organisations in Australia in the area of Australia-Vietnam trade promotion.

 

In the photos below taken at the Marriott Hotel are H.E. Hoang Dinh Thanh and Prof Tran Van Hoa (left to right, photo 1), VBAA President (Mr Tran Ba Phuc, photo 2), VBAA Vice-President (Mr Phan Van Danh, photo 3), some VBAA Executive Members (photo 4), and some other participants at the Inauguration Meeting (photo 5).

 

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GREENHOUSE GAS MANAGEMENT IN THAILAND

Melbourne, 3-5 May 2010

 

Tran Van Hoa welcomed Dr Kitti Limskul, Member of the Board of Directors, Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organisation (Public Organisation), who led a delegation of Thailand’s senior climate change experts to Australia to inspect CCS facilities and to exchange ideas on aspects of climate change adaptation and mitigation programs and possible collaboration in the two countries. Dr Limskul is a Professor at Thailand’s prestigious Chulalongkorn University, and, for the past 25 years, Director of its Econometric Modelling and Forecasting (EMF) Program. During his recent secondment from Chulalongkorn University, he was also Thailand’s Vice-Minister of Education and Finance. While in Melbourne, Dr Limskul also discussed future research collaboration with Prof Tran Van Hoa and RMIT University staff on climate change issues and human resource management.

 

The photo below records Dr Limskul’s visit to Melbourne during the break of the CCR workshop on CCS at the Novotel.

 

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ENGAGING WITH VIETNAM

Monash University, Melbourne 23-24 February 2010

 

Tran Van Hoa attended the conference Engaging with Vietnam: An Interdisciplinary Dialogue to deliver his keynote address Australia-Vietnam Economic, Trade and External Relations and their Regional Prospects. The conference was organised by Dr Phan Le Ha of the Faculty of Education and sponsored by the Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Prof Stephanie Fahey, both of Monash University. Distinguished participants included Madam Ton Nu Thi Ninh, former Vietnam Ambassador to Belgium and Luxembourg, Head of Mission to the European Union in Brussels, and Vice-Chair, Foreign Affairs Committee, the 11th National Assembly of Vietnam (2002-07); senior academics from Australia’s and Vietnam’s universities; and executives from national organisations such as the ABC. At the conference, a strong presence of Vietnamese scholars and students, and Vietnam experts was noted, and a wide range of topics and research projects on education, training, management, economics, trade, and external relations between Australia and Vietnam was presented and discussed.

 

In the photo below taken at Monash University Conference Centre, 30 Collins St, Melbourne, were (from left to right), Associate Professor Dr Pham Quang Minh, Dean, Faculty of International Studies, Vietnam National University; Dr Phan Le Ha, Conference Organiser, Faculty of Education, Monash University; Prof Stephanie Fahey, Deputy Vice-Chancellor (International), Monash University; and Prof Tran Van Hoa.

 

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LEADER IN ENGAGEMENT WITH ASIA

University of Melbourne, 18 February 2010

 

Tran Van Hoa was invited to attend, on 18 February 2010, the 20th Anniversary Cocktail Reception of the University of Melbourne’s Asialink network. The event was to mark a landmark in the network’s history and in which Prof Ross Garnaut (Australia’s foremost expert on Australia-Asia engagement and climate change issues) was invited to deliver his keynote address Relations with China as a Global Power. More than 70 senior business executives, consular representatives, and former and current senior academics from the University of Melbourne (including the Chancellor, two Vice-Chancellors, several Deans), and other institutions participated in the event.

 

In the photos below taken at the event’s location, Freehills, Melbourne, are (photo 1, from left to right) Prof Ross Garnaut (Vice-Chancellor Fellow, University of Melbourne), Jenny McGregor (Chief Executive Officer of Asialink) and Tran Van Hoa; and (photo 2), Jenny Mcgregor and Asialink Chaiman, Sid Myer, on the podium, and some of the participants.

 

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DOES CHINA GAIN FROM IMPORTS FROM

AUSTRALIA AND VIETNAM?

Vietnam Institute for Trade, 29 Jan 2010, Hanoi

While recent strong growth of China’s exports has generated geo-political concern to policy-makers world-wide, the country’s trading partners also hope to export more to China. But do exports by China’s major regional trade partners in the East Asia Summit region such as Australia and Vietnam to the country contribute to its economic growth? These are some major issues for research, dissemination and debate in a new major Australian Research Council (ARC)-funded 2009-2011 project which has the international collaboration of Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT), Ministry of Industry and Trade, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES), Victoria University (Australia), and Tradedata P/L (Melbourne).

At the VIT workshop on 29 Jan 2010 in Hanoi to report on the ARC research progress for the second half of 2009, Tran Van Hoa presented some of his research findings to show that, in spite of expectations otherwise, China’s imports from Australia and Vietnam in the past two decades have had only a very negligible effect on its economic performance. One explanation for this finding is attributed to the small share of imports from these two countries to China in a global context. The perspective from Australia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam on the effect of China’s exports to them will be a focus for research during 2010.

In the photos below taken at the ARC-based workshop organised by VIT in Hanoi on 29 Jan 2010 are some participants

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and VIT senior staff and guest speaker: (from left to right) Dr Nguyen Van Sinh (Senior Expert, VIT), Dr Nguyen Van Thang (Senior Expert, VIT), Prof Dr Dinh Van Thanh (Director-General of VIT), Prof Dr Tran Thien Khiem (Director, Vietnam Institute of Economics), and Prof Dr Nguyen Van Lich (former Director-General of VIT).

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ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN ASIA:

THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND BEYOND

Keio University, Tokyo, 28-29 November 2009

 

The global financial crisis (GFC) has, through recent increasing economic integration and globalisation, started in the US but created world-wide economic and financial turmoil for developed and especially developing countries world-wide but especially in Asia, where many economies have depended on exports and trade in capital and services for their high development and growth. These GFC and post-GFC issues and policy responses and choices for East and West Asia were explored and discussed by an international panel of renowned economics and trade experts at the 8th Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) conference. The conference was organised by Prof Fukunari Kimura, Faculty of Economics, Keio University and Chief Economist, East Asia Summit Research Institute (ERIA), and with the financial support from Keio University and the Keio-Kyoto Global COE Program.

APEF is a new international economics society, founded at the National Kangwon University in Chunchoen, South Korea, in 2001. Its aim is to carry out and disseminate original and high-quality research on contemporary and leading-edge issues in international trade, development and growth, economic integration, economic and trade policy, external relations and political economy in the Asia-Pacific region. Its membership includes academic and government economic experts from major countries in North America, the European Union, West Asia or the Middle East, Asia (East Asia, South East Asia, the Subcontinent) and Oceania. Since its founding, the APEF has its annual conferences in rotation in its members’ countries. Several proceedings of the previous APEF conferences have also been published in book form from international publishers (eg, Edward Elgar, UK).

 

In the photo below taken at the G-SEC Conference Room, East Building, Mita campus, Keio University, are some participants at a conference session

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In the photo below recording the APEF 2009 Executive Meeting are (from left to right), Prof Mosayeb Pahlavani (Dean, Faculty of Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran), Prof Seyed Komail Tayebi (Head, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Iran, and Editor, Journal of International Economics - Iran), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Fukunari Kimura, Prof Chung-Mo Koo (Kangwon National University, Korea), Prof Zhao Yanyun (Dean, School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing), Prof Huyn-Hoon Lee (Senior Economist, APEC Research Unit, APEC Secretariate, Singapore, and Professor and former Dean, Kangwon National University, Korea), and Prof Charles Harvie (Director, Small Business and Regional Research Centre, University of Wollongong, Australia).  

 

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INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTRE (IDRC) AND SOUTH EAST ASIA’S ECONOMIES

AND ENVIRONMENT

 

17-18 November 2009, Hanoi, Vietnam

 

Prof Tran Van Hoa was invited to attend and deliver a Plenary Session Speech “CO2 Emissions-Economic Growth Trade-off in Vietnam and China for UNFCCC/IPCC Climate Change Policy Analysis” at the 32nd Biannual Workshop of the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Economy and Environment Program for South East Asia (EEPSEA), in Hanoi on 17-18 November 2009. The Workshop, taking place at the Intercontinental Hotel, West Lake, was sponsored and organised by the EEPSEA Directorate (based in Singapore). It is an important event in the EEPSEA yearly activity calendar where the EEPSEA Directorate and senior economists, consultants, resource staff, EEPSEA-funded researchers, and other distinguished experts formally meet to discuss final and interim reports, and new research proposals presented by academics, government officials and NGO and other researchers in major countries in the South East Asia region including China and Mongolia (SEA Plus). At the Workshop, new research themes and direction, and new advances in supporting research and training technology were also discussed by international high-reputation keynote speakers. More than 70 experts from the SEA Plus region, and Australia, Canada and the US, participated in the Workshop.

 

Founded in May 1993 by David Glover from Canada and currently managed by a Director (Dr Herminia Francisco), the EEPSEA has received funding support from a Sponsors Group (currently IDRC, CIDA and Sida) to assist in research and training capacity enhancement activity on environmental and resource economics with strong practical policy relevance for young academics, researchers and upcoming leaders in the SEA Plus region. The EEPSEA has also earned an enviable reputation in this region for its contribution to research and training in these fields.

In the photos below taken at the Workshop, Intercontinental Hotel Ballrooms 2-3, are (Photo 1), from left to right, front row, Dr Herminia Francisco (EEPSEA Director, Philippines), Dr Orapan Nabangchang (EEPSEA Senior Economist, Thailand), and Dr Bui Dung The (EEPSEA Senior Economist, Vietnam), and (Photo 2) some key resource staff and Plenary Session speakers from Canada, the US, and Australia.

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In the photo below taken at the Farewell Dinner at the Sheraton Hotel in West Lake are, from left to right, Prof Tran Van Hoa, Dr Herminia Francisco, and Associate Professor Dr Nguyen The Chinh (Deputy Director-General, Vietnam Institute for Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE), Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment) .

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CLIMATE CHANGE, CO2 EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM

Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE)

Hanoi, 26 Sept 2009

Tran Van Hoa attended the Economic Analysis of Climate Change Workshop on 26 Sept 2009 in Hanoi to deliver his paper on Vietnam’s CO2 Emissions-Development Trade-offs and its Relevance to UNFCCC/IPCC (Copenhagen 2009) Climate Change Policy. The workshop was organised jointly by ISPONRE, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), Vietnam Environment Economics Association (VEEA) and Economy and Environment Program for South East Asia (EEPSEA) of Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC). More than 70 experts from the various academic and research institutions and regions of Vietnam participated in the workshop where seven major research and discussion papers and reports on climate change effects, regional responses and national policy recommendations were presented.

In his paper, Prof Tran Van Hoa introduced a new econometric model of CO2 emissions-growth of Vietnam to provide a new perspective on climate change analysis and to measure the CO2 emissions-growth trade-offs and the innovation adaptation and mitigation policy effectiveness for the country. Surprisingly, his evidence-based findings which are highly significant show that Vietnam would suffer less than its major regional and global trade partners as a result of adopting a uniform global CO2 emissions reduction policy, and that, unlike other regional economies, the country has successfully adopted CO2 emissions reduction innovation and technology in recent years. His findings led to statistically robust climate change policy recommendations and provide a fresh research outcome in economic analysis of climate change and global warming. Research and communications in this area is, according to the 2009 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), currently lacking, world-wide. Prof Tran Van Hoa’s new modeling methodology and policy recommendations were well received and hotly discussed by the workshop expert panel and some other participants.

In the photos below taken at the workshop venue, The Flower Garden Hotel in Hanoi, are the workshop expert panel (Photo 1) and some participants (Photo 2) at the workshop

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In the photo below taken at the ISPONRE Headquarter in Hanoi where future climate change policy and strategy research development and collaboration between ISPONRE and CSES (Victoria University) were discussed are, from left to right, Dr Nguyen Van Tai, 2nd place (Director-General, ISPONRE), Prof Tran Van Hoa, 3rd place, and Associate Prof Dr Nguyen The Chinh, 4th place (Deputy Director-General, ISPONRE)

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CHINA’S EXPORTS & MAJOR EAST ASIA ECONOMIES

Vietnam Institute for Trade, Hanoi, 14 July 2009

Recent strong growth of China’s exports has elevated the country to a rising global economic power and caused geo-political concern to policy-makers not only in the country but also in its major trading partners world-wide. What are the determinants of this growth, how they have affected major economies in the ASEAN (WB, 2009) in particular, and what kind of evidence-based responses is required and appropriate for major East Asia Summit economies such as Australia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam? These are major issues for research, dissemination and debate in a new major Australian Research Council (ARC)-funded 2009-2011 project which has the international collaboration of Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT), Ministry of Industry and Trade, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES), Victoria University (Australia), and Tradedata P/L (Melbourne).

The official launch of the ARC 2009-2011 project (the fifth at VIT in the past 15 years) took place at the VIT Headquarter in Hanoi on 14 July 2009 where the project’s first ARC and VIT-funded and scheduled workshop to report work in progress in 2009 was also organised. The launch was co-chaired by Prof Tran van Hoa and attended by Australia’s Vice Ambassador to Vietnam (Ms Vanessa Wood) and AusAID in-country representative (Mr N V Hung), MOIT Vice-Minister representative (Dr T V Tung), and senior staff from VIT, MOIT and the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

Before the launch, Prof Tran Van Hoa and Prof Dr N V Lich participated in the official completion and final report of another ARC-VIT funded 2004-2008 project “ASEAN+3 FTA and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade”. The output of this project includes three books and numerous journal articles and reports which have been widely disseminated and communicated at workshops, conferences and professional journals.

In the photo below taken at the 2009-2011 ARC project launch ceremony at VIT Headquarter are, from left to right, Prof Dr N V Lich (VIT Director-General and ARC Industry Partner), Mr H T Thanh (VIT ARC Projects Director), Ms Vanessa Wood (Australia’s Vice Ambassador – Deputy Head of Mission, to Vietnam), and Prof Tran Van Hoa.

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In the photo below also taken at the 2009-2011 ARC ceremony at VIT Headquarter during the speech by Australia’s Vice Ambassador to Vietnam are some of the participants at the ARC projects’ completion and launch and workshop.

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CORRUPTION AND ANTI-CORRUPTION POLICY IN ASIA

Thailand National Anti-corruption Commission (NACC), 5-6 June 2009, Bangkok

Tran Van Hoa attended the International Conference on Evidenced-based Anti-corruption Policy in Bangkok on 5-6 June 2009 to deliver this paper on Development and Corruption in Asia: A Substantive Analysis for Practical Policy Uses. The conference was the first event ever organised by Thailand NACC in collaboration with the World Bank, and took place at the Siam City Hotel. A total of more than 250 participants from the government, anti-corruption agencies, non-government organisations, international organisations (eg, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the United Nations), academia and business from more than 16 countries from North America, the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, Uganda, India, Brunei, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand, attended the conference and to present more than 50 papers.

Eminent speakers included Mr Abhisit Vejjajiva (Prime Minister of Thailand), Mr Panthep Klanarongran (NACC President), Justice Fabio De Pasquale (Chief Prosecutor, Ministry of Justice, Italy), Ms Annnette Dixon (Country Director, World bank, Thailand), Dr Richard Messick (World Bank, Washington D.C, USA), Dr Jean-Pierre Verbiest (Country Director, Asian Development Bank, Thailand), Dr Juree Vichit-Vadakam (Director, Transparency International, Thailand), internationally notable and distinguished academics and business cummunity, and Commissioners from the national anti-corruption commission agencies from major countries in the Asian region. These agencies include the NACC (Thailand), the KPK (Indonesia), the ICAC (Hong Kong), and the Anti-corruption Bureau (Brunei Darussalam). The conference was opened by Thailand Prime Minister and nationally televised and widely reported in the media.

 As a true international venue for scholarly and practical policy information, discussion and debate on what is often known as the dark side of humanity and its activities driven essentially by personal greed and interest at all three levels of  government or state, corporate and individual governance or management, the conference attracted a very wide range of papers and speakers covering important theoretical abstract and practical policy topics of interest to both rich and developed as well as poor and developing economies alike. These topics include (1) How to Prosecute High-Level Politicians, (2) Variety of Corruption and Its Changing Face, (3) Methodological Conflict in Corruption Perspective and Activities, (4) Corruption as a Catalyst of Human Rights Violation in Civil Societies, (5) United Nations Convention Against Corruption 2003, (6) Business-based and Ethics-based Government Governance and Corruption, (7) Evaluation of Corruption Indicators, (8) Corruption and Anti-corruption Policy in Semi-authoritarian as well as Democratic Countries, (9) Can Income and Assets Declarations by Politicians Minimise Corruption?, (10) Uses of IT To Reduce Corruption, (11) Corruption and Integrity in the Agricultural Sector, (12) the Myth of the Low Development and High Corruption Nexus Perception on Asia, (13) Government and Corporate Resistance to Anti-corruption Policy, and (14) the Role of Anti-corruption Agencies in Major Developing Countries in Asia. The Conference papers will be uploaded on the NACC website for wider dissemination. Some papers may be published in the NACC Journal after a peer-review process.

In the photo below taken at the conference are, from left to right, (first) Prof Medhi Krongkaew (Commissioner, Thailand NACC), (second) Prof Sirilaksana Khoman (Senior NACC Adviser, Key NACC Conference Organiser, and Thammasat University), and (third) Dr Fabio De Pasquale (Chief Prosecutor, Ministry of Justice, Italy).

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In the photo below taken at the NACC Conference Dinner at Siam City Hotel are, from left to right, Ms Annette Dixon (Country Director, World Bank, Thailand), Prof Sirilaksana Khoman, Mr Larry Lam (Managing Director, McGuire Asia Pte Ltd, Singapore), and Prof Tran Van Hoa (Director, Vietnam and East Asia Summit Research Program, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia).

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ASIAN COMMUNITY: FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN EAST ASIA

21 March 2009, Shanghai Jiaotong University, China

Tran Van Hoa attended the international symposium on financial crisis and economic integration in East Asia taking place at Shanghai Jiaotong University in Shanghai on 21 March 2009 to deliver his paper on the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC), globalisation, regional trade agreements and policy reform on China trade and growth. The symposium was organised by Prof Junfang Xi of the Antai College of Economics and Management at SJTU and in collaboration with and with the financial support of the Asian Community Research Center at Osaka Sangyo University in Japan. The symposium’s purpose was to gauge the view of active academic researchers in the East and South-east Asia and Australia on the prospects of an East Asia post-crisis recovery and to explore the impact of the GFC on the process of economic integration in the region. A total of over 40 experts from academic and government institutions in China, Japan, Myanmar and Australia attended the symposium to deliver 12 papers covering a diverse area of contemporary high-level scholarly research with policy focus and implications. The topics included the GFC and development and trade, FDI, economic integration, energy conservation, money supply, the GFC tidal waves and their impact, FTAs, game theory and the agricultural sector. A vibrant discussion followed many paper presentations.

In the photo below taken at the symposium reception dinner at the Central Hotel in Shanghai are, from left to right, Prof Junfang Xi (3rd, standing), Prof Tran Van Hoa (4th, Director, Vietnam and East Asia Summit Research Program, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, Australia), and Prof Akira Takamasu (7th, Kansai University and Asian Community Research Center, Osaka Sangyo University, Japan).

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GROWING AUSTRALIA-VIETNAM TRADE RELATIONS INSPITE OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES

Marriott Hotel, Melbourne, 6 March 2009

Tran Van Hoa attended on 6 March 2009 the workshop and ambassadorial reception at the Marriott Hotel in Melbourne to discuss the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) report on the WTO and Australia-Vietnam Trade Relations and to exchange ideas on ways and means to improve these relations. The event was hosted by the Vietnam Embassy in Canberra with the logistics support of the Vietnam Trade Office in Sydney and the contribution by a delegation from the Europe Market Department (Zone II) of MOIT and Vietnam Press. Nearly 60 academics, business people and government officials participated in the event. H.E. Nguyen Thanh Tan, Vietnam Ambassdor to Australia, reported in his speech a strong growing trade between Australia and Vietnam at about 22 per cent per year in recent years and, in terms of two-way trade or WTO-style openness, reaching $A8 billion in 2008. A figure of $A15 billion in two-way trade and 15,000 Vietnamese students studying in Australia as part of services trade have also been predicted for coming years. In 2008, while Vietnamese expatriates around the world sent to Vietnam about $US8 billion and FDI reached $US100 billion, the country still needs further FDI to support its trade expansion and development programs. The MOIT delegation pointed out the favourable climate in Vietnam for trade, FDI , services and relations enhancement as a result of the country’s WTO membership, robust economic and trade policy reforms, and abundant natural and human resources. At the workshop, Professor Tran Van Hoa pointed out that, to have a better understanding of Australia and Asia trade and economic relations,  the Australian Research Council of the Australian Government has awarded him and co-researchers in Australia and Vietnam (Vietnam Institute for Trade, a Department of MOIT) a grant worth $A600,000 in total to study the effects of China’s exports and growth on major regional economies such as Australia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.  

In the photo below taken at the Marriott Hotel are, from left to right, Ms Nguyen Quynh Anh (1st  place) , Europe Market Department, MOIT; Prof Tran Van Hoa (4th); H.E. Nguyen Thanh Tan (5th), Vietnam Ambassador to Australia; Mr Vu Van Quang (6th), Deputy Director-General, Europe Market Department, MOIT; and Mr Nguyen Van Chi (10th), Commercial Consul, Vietnam Trade Office in Sydney, Australia.

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PROMOTING EAST & WEST ASIA ECONOMIC & TRADE RELATIONS FOR MUTUAL BENEFITS AMID THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

2-7 November 2008

Universities of Sistan & Baluchestan, Isfahan, Shiraz and Teheran, Iran

During the first week of November 2008, Tran Van Hoa participated in a series of APEF (Asia-Pacific Economic Forum) VII conferences at three well-known universities in Iran on the emerging theme East and West Asia Trade and Economic Relations: Opportunities, Challenges and Outcomes. The theme was proposed by Tran Van Hoa two years ago in Korea to reflect APEF ( a new international economics society founded at the Kangwon National University, Chunchoen, Korea, in 2002, to differentiate it from the World Economic Forum) interest in emerging economic power in East and South Asia and the East Asia Summit agenda (14 December 2005, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia) for wider regional economic integration and trade liberalisation for mutual benefits.

The local organisers involved in the preparation of the APEF VII conference are Prof Seyed Komail Tayebi of the University of Isfahan and Dr Mosayeb Pahlavani of the University of Sistan & Baluchestan in Zahedan, and numerous pan-university and institution associates. As a significant recognition of the importance of the conference and its theme in the East and West Asia region, a total of 16 universities and institutions provided sponsorships. These include the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) Presidency, Central Bank of IRI, Refah Bank, Trade Promotion Organisation of Iran, the Governor of Sistan & Baluchestan, Iran Technical & Vocational Training Organisation of the Qom Province, Isfahan Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Mines, Institute for Trade Studies and Research, Chabahar Free Trade Zone, Chabahar Maritime University, Islamic Azad University, Commercial Organisation of Sistan & Baluchestan, Universities of Isfahan, Sistan & Baluchestan, Shiraz and Teheran.

More than 1300 senior government officials, business people, university staff and students attended the Opening Ceremony and Keynote Speeches of the APEF VII conference at the University Sistan & Baluchestan in Zahedan. Experts from over 10 countries in Asia, India, Iran, other Middle East countries, Oceania and the European Union participated to deliver 38 selected research papers (out of a total of 100 papers submitted for presentation) covering a wide range of topics on trade, economics, finance, technology and management in East and West Asia, and the impact of the current global financial crisis. Prof Tran Van Hoa delivered his keynote speech emphasizing the opportunities and challenges of deepening East and West Asia trade and economic relations. He also presented a research paper measuring the impact of Gulf oil, foreign direct investment, financial services, crises and reforms on 10 ASEAN economies growth and development.The conference and the interviews of key participating international experts were widely reported by numerous news and TV media nationally and internationally. Selected APEF VII conference papers have been solicited for publication as a book by a well-known international publisher in the UK and US.

A prominent session of the APEF VII conferences at the University of Sistan & Baluchestan and the University of Isfahan was a Roundtable where keynote speakers and the audience participated in discussions on major contemporary issues of interest to future policy in East and West Asia. The issues raised at the session included energy supply, demand and prices, the importance of small and medium-size enterprises, the current interest by academic and institutional experts and policy-makers on the architecture of regional trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region, and most importantly, the impact of the US subprime or global financial crisis (GFC) on both developed and developing economies world-wide. In his discussions, Prof Tran Van Hoa stated that it is too early to assess the wide-spread and deep damages of GFC, but he gave an overall evidence-based picture of the potential economic, financial, ideological and political damages of the GFC in all big and small economies which many times surpass the decades-long gains from trade liberalisation and growth, and reform. He also pointed out fortunately that good and appropriate policy can attenuate these damages and spur future development and growth, and recommended regional and global co-operation in finding appropriate solutions on these. In his discussions, Prof Peter Lloyd, of the Grubel-Lloyd Intra-trade Index fame, also concurred that a rethink of laisser-faire or extreme capitalism as a model of modern economic management policy with government support may be necessary. Prof Ahmad Akbari emphasised the effects of the GFC on economic slowdown and oil revenue of the OPEC and their contagion to other sectors of the economy (eg, education in Iran) that crucially depend on it. Prof Charles Harvie predicted a hard time for SME operation with contracted public consumption and less available credits and finance as a result of the GFC.

The photo below records a Roundtable session at the University of Sistan & Baluchestan in Zahedan. From left to right, Prof Ahmad Akbari, Chancellor, University of Sistan & Baluchestan; Prof Peter Lloyd, University of Melbourne, Australia; Prof Tran Van Hoa, APEF Founding President and Director, Vietnam and East Asia Summit Research Program, Victoria University, Australia; and Prof Charles Harvie, Director, SME and Regional Research Centre, University of Wollongong, Australia.

Roundtable 1

In the two photos below taken at the Opening Ceremony and Keynote Speeches in the Ferdowsi Hall on campus at the University of Sistan & Baluchestan in Zahedan are some of the 1300 VIP guests and participants.  

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Some Key Speakers at the APEF VII conference in Zahedan (photo below). From left to right, sitting, Prof Ahmad Akbari; Prof Peter Lloyd; Prof Tran Van Hoa; and Prof Hyun-Hoon Lee, Dean of Asia-Pacific Academy and an APEF Founding Member, Kangwon National University, Korea.

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In the photo below taken at the Office of the Vice-Chancellor, University of Isfahan, are, from left to right, Prof Charles Harvie; Prof Komail Tayebi, University of Isfahan and APEF Local Chair; Prof Tran Van Hoa; Prof Hossein Harsij, Vice-Chancellor, University of Isfahan; Prof Peter Lloyd; and Dr Nazende Ozkaramete Coskun, Bikent University, Turkey.  

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The photo below shows some of the audience at the APEF VII conference taking place at the University of Shiraz.

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INDIA AND EMERGING ASIAN REGIONALISM:

ECONOMIC, TRADE AND POLITICAL ISSUES, AND PRIORITY

25-30 September 2008, Allahabad and Jawaharlal Nehru Universities and RIS, India

Tran Van Hoa participated recently in three important high-level academic and policy meetings in India dealing with emerging issues of India as a new major economic power and its role in the broad Asia region in particular. At Allahabad University, he attended an AusAID and UNCTAD-funded international conference on Trade and Development, taking place on 25-26 Sept 2008, to present a keynote address (and the conference highlight) on India-Asia Trade and Growth. The conference was jointly organised by the Departments of Economics (Prof A Agarwal) and Statistics (Prof A Chaturvedi), to discuss the status quo, current research and co-operative potential of India, major India-Asian trade agreement issues, and the European Union’s FDI interest in the subcontinent. More than 120 participants (academics, government and international organisation officials, and business executives) from all over India, Australia, the EU, Malaysia, and Turkey attended the two-day conference which was widely reported by the media.

In the photo below taken in the historic North Hall, Allahabad University, at the end of the Valedictory Session are some keynote speakers at the conference (from left to right front row, Prof Alka Agarwal, Chair and AU Council Member, Department of Economics, Allahabad University; Prof Tran Van Hoa; Prof Rajen Harshe, Vice-Chancellor, Allahabad University; Chief Justice (retired) Shri Prakash).

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 And some of the participants at the conference during the keynote address by Tran Van Hoa.

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Prof Tran Van Hoa also participated in a high-level policy RIS-ADB conference Emerging Asian Regionalism: ASEAN-India FTA and Beyond, taking place on 29 Sept 2008 at the Viceregal, Claridge Hotel, New Delhi, to present his key panel address on India and the ASEAN. The conference was jointly organised by RIS (Research and Information System for Developing Economies, India’s government-funded top think-tank) and the ADB (Asian Development Bank) and attended by H E Dr Jairam Ramesh, Minister of State for Commerce and Power, Dr M Kawai, Dean, ADB Institute in Tokyo, India's elite government officials and academics, and international embassy and business representatives. In his address, Tran Van Hoa gave an account of the recent past record of India-ASEAN-World economic and trade relations, and, using the recent findings based on his endogenous gravity theory, explored these relations’ opportunities, obstacles, and prospects within the framework of a plurilateral India-ASEAN FTA, and the East Asia Summit FTA as proposed currently by the 16 EAS leaders. At the conference, the ADB launched its new publication Emerging Asian Regionalism: A Partnership for Shared Prosperity, in which some aspects of integration of production, trade, financial markets, and FDI in the ASEAN Plus were particularly paid attention to. The conference was widely reported by the media.

In the photos below taken at the Viceregal Hall, Claridge Hotel, in New Delhi, during the RIS-ADB conference are some keynote speakers (Dr Rajesh Kumar, Director-General, RIS; Dr M Kawai, Dean, ADB Institute; Dr Srinivasa Madhur, Director, OREI, ADB).

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And some of the participants.

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In New Delhi, Professor Tran Van Hoa also gave a seminar on 30 Sept 2008 to staff and postgraduate students of the Centre for International Trade and Development of the Jawaharlal Nehru University (India’s top university) to talk about the development of his endogenous gravity theory and its applications to India’s and ASEAN’s economic and trade issues particularly in a present climate of energy and financial crises, and to offer possible solutions. The visit to the JNU was organised by Prof B B Bhattacharya, JNU Vice-Chancellor and a noted economist and adviser to India’s Prime Minister.

In the photo below taken at the JNU seminar are, front row, Prof Tran Van Hoa and Prof Geeta Agarwal (Chairperson, CITD), and some postgraduate students.

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KOREA AND THE WORLD CONFERENCE VII

20-21 June 2008

Korea Institute of Public Finance, Seoul, and Kangwon National University, Chunchoen, Korea

Tran Van Hoa attended the Korea and the World Economy Conference VII in Korea during 20-21 June 2008 to deliver his research paper on the currently proposed Australia-Korea Free Trade Agreement, and to discuss papers at a plenary session on Official Development Assistance - Korea and the Developing Countries. The conference (in the series established at Kangwon National University in Chunchoen in 2002) ) with high-profile national and international co-sponsors was hosted by the Association of the Korean Economic Studies (AKES) which is the largest economics society in Korea. The official professional journal of the AKES is the Journal of the Korean Economy and it is included in the well-known Journal of the Economic Literature Classification. Over 50 delegates from universities, research institutes and international organisations (eg, Asian Development Bank, Asia Foundation, the IMF, United Nations ELAC) from over 11 countries (eg, Australia, China, France, India, Iran, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, the UK, the US) participated in the conference where a wide range of economic, ODA and trade topics on Korea and its relations with the global economy were discussed. 

In the photo below at the farewell function at the Santorini in Chunchoen are (from left to right) Prof Huyn-Hoon Lee (Dean, Asia-Pacific Co-operation Academy, Kangwon National University; local organiser), Prof Chung-Moo Koo (President, AKES; local organiser), Dr Bongkee Hahn (Vice Governor, Gangwon Provincial Government), Prof Sven W Arndt (Claremont McKenna College, USA), and Prof Tran Van Hoa

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INNOVATION & TECHNOLOGY IN VIETNAM:

POLICY MODELLING TRAINING FOR ACADEMICS AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS

2 May 2008, Vietnam Institute for Trade, Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), Vietnam

While the role of econometric modelling for policy analysis (using say the methods of growth regression, panel regression, structural equation modelling, and CGE/GTAP) has been recognised and used in most developed and Western countries world-wide, an appropriate modelling methodology with more credible or realistic outcomes for use by corporate and government policy-makers in both developed and developing countries alike is still to be developed. A new development with improved features and outcomes in this field is the Generalised Gravity Theory proposed in 2002 and used successfully since by Tran Van Hoa (eg, see the Journal of the Korean Economy, 2004) in many practical applications on economic, trade, FDI and service studies in Asian economies (eg, China, India, Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam) in recent years. This advanced modelling tool has now been officially adopted by the Government of Vietnam (Ministry of Industry and Trade) for practical economic and trade policy analysis by its researchers, experts and decision-makers. A training course on the GGT and its applications, funded partially by VIT, was organised at its headquarter in Hanoi on 2 May 2008 for select government officials and academics from major ministries and universities in Vietnam. A total of over 40 officials and academics attended the course. MOIT is now actively seeking support to further develop and disseminate this new modelling methodology to study major current areas of national development priorities to enhance the country's capacity, trade, growth and external relations.

In the photo below taken at the training course are Prof Tran Van Hoa (second from left) and some participants.

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INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY

AND THEIR IMPACT IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

21-23 April 2008, United Nations University and Renmin University of China, Beijing

Tran Van Hoa attended the Second Conference of Micro Evidence on Innovation in Developing Economies (MEIDE), on 21-23 April, 2008, at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, to deliver a paper on the Impact of Innovation &Technology Public Expenditure on Development in China and India: An International Comparative Study, and to chair a session. The Conference was jointly organised by the United Nations University at Maastricht and MERIT (the Netherlands), INSEE (France), and Renmin University. A total of over 70 academics, government officials and experts from 25 countries (eg, Latin America, European Union, China, India, Japan, Russia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Turkey, Australia) attended the conference. A wide range of topics covering innovation and labour, patents, technology sourcing, policy evaluation, spillovers, financing and innovation, innovation indicators, innovation in opening economies, innovation input/output, and innovation and FDI was discussed. One main outcome from the studies presented is that efficiency of innovation and technology on productivity at both micro and macro level in many economies is still to be improved. Tran Van Hoa pointed out the lack of endogeneity in the modelling methodologies adopted for all these studies and recommended a focus on this in future work.

In the photo below taken at the end of the conference and in front of the Run Run Shaw Conference Centre at Renmin University are some of the participants.

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BASIC PUBLIC SERVICES EQUALISATION IN CHINA:

AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

China Institute for Reform and Development (CIRD), 22-23 Feb 2008, Haikou, China

Tran Van Hoa was invited to attend the international conference Basic Public Services for 1.3 Billion People during 22-23 Feb 2008 in Haikou to present his paper on China's Education and Development and Its Comparative Efficiency Competitiveness with one of China's major economic and trade rivals in the region, India. The conference was organised by one of China's think-tanks, the China Institute for Reform and Development (CIRD), and with the collaboration of China International Centre for Economic and Technical Exchanges (CICETE) and the United Nations Development Program (China). A wide range of 'hot' topics on major aspects of public services in China, covering education, health care, rural and regional development, urban-rural gaps, legal foundation, tax reform, and social security, were discussed and debated by more than 250 senior academics and government officials (including two Vice Ministers) from all over China and 17 international experts (eg, from Australia, France, Sweden, the UK), UNDP Resident Representative and Senior Economist. The conference proceedings were nationally televised and reported by 21 mass media networks. In his paper and discussions, Prof Tran Van Hoa emphasised the importance of not only public services input and capacity equalisation but, more significantly, their outcomes and efficiency evaluation (a new policy research direction mentioned at the conference by the UNDP (China) Representative, Mr Khalid Malik, and endorsed by Vice-Minster of National Population and Family Planning Commission, Dr Zhao Baige), and the relevance of regional competitiveness (in this case, India's education and health care) in a globalised economy where China is playing an increasingly influential role.

In the photo below taken at the New State Guest House at the Opening Ceremony are H.E. Dr Zhao Baige and Professor Tran Van Hoa.

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Two photos showing some of the national and international participants at the Conference.

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VIETNAM GOVERNMENT & VICTORIA UNIVERSITY PARTNERSHIP

IN MINISTERIAL TRADE POLICY RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT

8-20 December 2007, Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), Vietnam

Prof Tran Van Hoa of the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES), Faculty of Business & Law, Victoria University, led, during 8-20 December 2007, a number of Australian Research Council-funded workshops in major cities and provinces of Vietnam to present his work with the Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT), Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), on implementing improvements in economic and trade policy in the country. The workshops were organised by VIT (an Industry Partner in a 2004-2007 ARC Linkage Project) on Australia-Vietnam Trade, co-managed by VIT Director-General, Prof Dr Nguyen Van Lich), and endorsed by H.E. Nguyen Van Linh, Vietnam Vice-Minister of Trade.

The workshops were attended by senior university and trade college executives and academics, senior government officials, and select postgraduate students. The work involves the implementation of a new modelling policy approach, the so-called generalised gravity theory (GGT) introduced by Tran Van Hoa in 2002, that provides significant improvements in modelling outcomes and policy credibility and reliability to existing and popular approaches that are currently used in this field by national and international institutions (e.g., universities and research institutes) and organisations (e.g., the World Trade Organisation, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank). A description of the GGT is given in an award-winning article in 2004 in the Journal of the Korean Economy, published by Korea’s largest economics society, the Association of the Korean Economic Studies. Online access: http://www.akes.or.kr/jke/index.htm..

At the workshops, the participants were introduced to the work's preliminary research and findings, and informed of MOIT decision to adopt the GGT methodology for economic and trade analysis and implementation at the practical and operational level by the Ministry. The decision is highly significant for global government governance in the sense of how relevant and quality government policy background support in Vietnam (a major ASEAN, APEC and East Asia Summit member) is sought and for using relevant government-university partnership in formulating and implementing economic and trade policy. This can be a model for high-level and suitable policy analysis and useful and practical implementation for other countries.

In the photo below taken at the meeting at the MOIT Headquarter in Hanoi on 20 December 2007 are H.E. Nguyen Van Linh, Vice-Minister of Trade (on the left), and Prof Tran Van Hoa.

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A record photo of the ARC-VIT workshop at the VIT Headquarter in Hanoi: Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Dr N V Lich (centred) and senior government participants.

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A record photo of the ARC-VIT workshop at Da Nang University, Central Vietnam: Prof Tran Van Hoa (second from left) and Da Nang University Vice-Rector, Prof Dr Nguyen Thi Nhu Liem (first from left) and senior university executives and government officials

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A record photo of the ARC-VIT workshop at the College of Foreign Economic Relations, MOIT and Ministry of Education and Training, Ho Chi Minh City, Southern Vietnam: Prof Tran Van Hoa (left), and College Rector, Prof Dr Pham Chau Thanh (second from left), and College academics and government participants.

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A record photo of the ARC-VIT workshop at the Provincial Office of Trade and Tourism, MOIT, Da Lat, Highland Vietnam: Prof Tran Van Hoa (centred) and senior business and government participants.

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A record photo of the ARC-VIT workshop at Nha Trang University, Coastal Vietnam: Prof Tran Van Hoa and Dr Nguyen Thi Kim Anh (Dean, Faculty of Economics, Nha Trang University), and senior University executives and academics.

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 and 

CHINA AND INDIA: TRADE RELATIONS AND ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY

FOR TWO GIANTS IN EAST ASIA SPHERE

25-27 October 2007, University of Kashmir, India

Tran Van Hoa attended the 90th Indian Economic Association Conference at Kashmir University in India on 25-27 October 2007 to present his recent research findings on China-India trade relations and their impact on India's growth, 'Look East' policy, economic diplomacy and regional cooperation. Since its devastating balance of payments crisis in the early 1990s, India has achieved spectacular high growth with its subsequent reforms introduced by successive governments in the mid-1990s and early-2000s. India now stands as a new economic power giant in the East Asia Summit sphere competing with China (and even Vietnam) for global market access for goods, FDI inflows and services exports. Tran Van Hoa pointed out, in his paper, that while his substantive evidence supports the political view that both India and China may be rivals in these major areas of global cross-border transactions, it would pay to be each other's political and trade partners than trade competitors as the costs of crisis and conflict even short of an all-out war would be extremely high. In a move to underscore India's growing economic and political power in the region, it is worth noting that Australia signed a the protocol to set up an Australia-India free trade agreement on 31 August 2007. At the conference, India's top economists and government advisers emphasised the need to improve the country's international competitiveness by means of human resource and skill improvements through government priority setting and adequate funding. The problem of disparate development paths in different regions of India also needs attention and appropriate development policy.

In the photo below taken on campus in the Science Block at Kashmir University are, from left to right, Prof G K Chadha (Member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, and former Vice-Chancellor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi), Prof Tran Van Hoa, and Prof B B Bhattacharya (Vice-Chancellor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi, and 2007 President, Indian Economic Association)

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The photo below taken at the Opening Ceremony at the Convocation Complex at Kashmir University are Prof A Wahid (Vice-Chancellor, Kashmir University) and Prof Tran Van Hoa.

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rEGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN ASIA:

Issues in China and Vietnam Trade

31 July 2007, Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT), Ministry of Trade (MOT), Hanoi

While regional economic integration has been strongly supported by the governments in the ASEAN Plus region to promote trade, economic growth, poverty reduction and co-operation, major issues such as trade, investment and services in a bilateral framework between China and Vietnam for example in an AFTA Plus scheme have not been adequately studied in detail or reported at both the academic and policy level. These issues were taken up by VIT and other ministries and academic and research institutions in Vietnam recently in a nationally competitive research project grant awarded by Vietnam Ministry of Sciences and Environment to VIT. Major reports from the project were presented at a workshop on 31 July 2007 at the VIT Headquarter in Hanoi. A total of over 70 senior government officials, academics, businesspeople, other experts and consultants, and the media participated. Tran Van Hoa presented his paper on China-Vietnam trade and economic relations in which he applied his internationally acclaimed policy modelling approach with features superior to the CGE/GTAP (namely, the Generalised Gravity Theory, a description is given online: www.akes.or.kr/jke/index.htm.) to study empirically the impact of trade, FDI, services, policy reforms and crises on economic development in these two major transition and high-growth economies in Asia. The paper is part of an Australian Research Council Linkage 2004-07 Project research with VIT as an Industry Partner. One surprising finding of the paper is that, in this bilateral framework, China will gain more from trade with Vietnam, but Vietnam will gain more from trade with a developed country in the region such as Australia. In addition, development in both China and Vietnam is found to be severely affected by policy reforms and regional and global crises. The risks of structural change in regional economic integration exist and a neglect of their management by decision-makers or the leadership may damage the perceived gains from regional economic integration or free trade agreements.

In the photo below taken at the workshop are, from left to right, Prof Dr Nguyen Van Lich (Director-General, VIT, and ARC Linkage Industry Partner), Dr Nguyen Manh Hung (Prime Minister Office), Ho Trung Thanh (standing, ARC Linkage Project Manager, VIT), Prof Dr Nguyen Van Thanh (Vice Director-General, VIT), H E Le Van Dinh (Vice Minister, MOT), Prof Tran Van Hoa (ARC Linkage Chief Investigator and Director, Vietnam and ASEAN Plus Research Program, Victoria University, Australia), Prof Dr Nguyen Mai (hidden, Ministry of Science and Environment), and Prof Dr Nguyen Van Huong (former President, National Economics University, Hanoi). 

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In the photo below are some of the participants including the media representatives at the workshop.

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KOREA & THE WORLD VI:

Issues in a Korea-Australia FTA and Regional ODA

2-3 July 2007, Wollongong University, Australia

Tran Van Hoa attended the Korea and The World Economy International Conference VI: Towards Asian Economic Community at the University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia, on 2-3 July 2007, to present a paper on Official Development Assistance (ODA) Effectiveness in Asia. Since the current debates on ODA effectiveness or ineffectiveness have been based on aspects of political economy or methodologies that have been regarded as simple or inadequate, the paper provides a new and suitable modelling approach and substantive empirical findings to improve the quality of the debates. The issue is important as in 2005, ODA reached $US107 billion and current and former senior World Bank experts and consultants (eg, Sachs and Easterly) working on the area are not sure about the ODA benefits and the effectiveness of ODA modus operandi. The Korea and The World Conference series, organised principally by Korea's largest economics association, the Association of the Korean Economic Studies (AKES), started in Korea in 2001 by a group of international academic economists, trade experts and government officials to research on major issues in Korea and their implications and relations to the rest of the world. About 50 people from 17 countries around the world participated in the Conference which also attracted local and national media. Major issues in the currently negotiated Korea-Australia FTA were also a major topic at the Conference.

In the photo below (Tran Van Hoa, second from right) taken at the foyer of the Communications Centre at Wollongong University before the Conference are AKES Council Members, key participants and local and AKES organisers.

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Eminent participants at the Korea and The World Conference VI include H E Mr Chang-Boem Cho, Korea Ambassador to Australia (right, photo at the Novotel below) and Prof Robert Castle, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Wollongong University, left), and Prof Tran Van Hoa.

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The photo below taken in front of the MacKinnon (a former Vice-Chancellor at Wollongong University) Building after the farewell lunch at the Food Re-Thought restaurant at Wollongong University shows some of the participants.

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WHAT ARE NEW IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION?

30 June-1 July 2007, Wollongong University, Australia

While in Wollongong, Tran Van Hoa also attended, as an Executive Member and speaker, the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) International Conference VI, with the theme Asian Regionalism: Issues, Opportunities, Challenges and Outcomes, where he presented a paper on International Economic Integration in Asia: AFTA and WTO Memberships. The paper is acutely relevant to the current development in the Asia-Pacific and Oceania regions where, with the suspension of the WTO Doha Round negotiations in SARS Hong Kong in 2006, free trade agreements among neighbouring countries have been strongly promoted by major countries for mutual benefits. APEF is a new economics association founded in Chuncheon, Korea, in 2001, and has a wide international academic, government and industry membership and with an Asia-Pacific (in contrast with the World Economic Forum) focus agenda. Participants from 9 countries in East Asia, West Asia and Oceania attended the Conference and presented papers.

In the photo below taken at Wollongong University Communications Centre are some participants (Tran Van Hoa, 4th from left) of the Conference.

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Business and Investment in Vietnam under the WTO

21-23 May 2007, Vietnam Institute for Trade, Ministry of Trade, Hanoi

With its WTO membership on 11 January 2007 after over 12 years of tortuous negotiations, Vietnam is set to integrate more boldly and more competitively into the world market to increase its shares of exports and FDI, to enhance its sustainable growth, and to strengthen its external economic relations. This 150th WTO membership also projects Vietnam as a fast growth and politically stable market of more than 84 million people to attract international businesses and investors. This growth and stability were achieved even during the damaging periods of economic and financial crises and contagion which created a new 200 million poor in the region in recent years (Tran Van Hoa's Social Impact of the Asia Crisis, Macmillan, 2000, and Economic Crisis Management, Edward Elgar, 2002). To many of these corporate and individual transnationals, Vietnam is still a mysterious and exotic land and a free market economy with a social orientation where the challenges and opportunities for business and investment may be little understood. To assist these transnationals and local businesses and corporations in exploring Vietnam and global opportunities, Prof Tran Van Hoa is collaborating with Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT), Ministry of Trade, and other local businesses and companies to compile a compendium of businesses and investment for publication during 2007. The compendium is an update of the mid-1990s collaborative research work of VIT and Prof Tran Van Hoa to 2006 in which a wealth of information for a list of major and growing and investment- and services-hungry businesses and companies in all critical sectors in Vietnam is analysed and presented for possible international joint ventures or collaboration.  

ISSUES IN AUSTRALIA-KOREA RELATIONS AND FTA

26 March 2007, Myer Asia Institute, University of Melbourne

Tran Van Hoa attended a meeting with H E Chang Beom Cho, Korea Ambassador to Australia, at a get-to-know event organised by the Asialink network of the Myer Asia Institute, Melbourne University, on 26 March 2007 where major issues in Australia-Korea relations and trade were discussed. In his speech, Mr Cho gave an overview of Australia’s initial involvement in Korea during the 1951 War, Korea’s economic achievements over the past 4 decades or so, recent trends and developments in Australia-Korea trade and especially its imbalances, and prospects for a proposed Australia-Korea free trade agreement which was endorsed early in 2007 by the two governments. He called for an increase in outward trade in services and tourism to Korea to promote bilateral friendship and to rectify the trade imbalances. In an ensuing discussion, Tran Van Hoa raised the questions of Korea’s general apathy to an FTA, the deep-rooted tension between the 3 East Asia economies (China, Japan and Korea) that may affect regional trade agreements such as the ASEAN+3, and perceived security issues for the peninsula involving North Korea’s nuclear programs. More than 30 academics, government officials and business people attended the meeting. A lively discussion followed the ambassador’s talk.

The photo below taken at the Myer Asia Institute boardroom are Prof Tran Van Hoa and H E Chang Beom Cho.

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Australia-China Free Trade Agreement:

Issues in Regional Development and Substantive Policy Support

17-18 March 2007. Renmin University of China, Beijing, China

Prof Tran Van Hoa attended the international conference on Australia-China Free Trade Agreement: Regional Development Issues and Modelling Policy taking place in Beijing on 17-18 March 2007 to deliver a keynote address (Title: AFTA and WTO Memberships: Challenges, Opportunities and Choice) on the progress, outcomes and benefits of regional trade agreements in Asia (such as the ACFTA) and the actual substantive gains (or a lack of them) from WTO memberships. The conference was sponsored by AusAID-ISSS, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), and supported and locally organised by three Beijing universities: the Renmin University of China (RUC), the Central University of Finance and Economics (CUFE), and the Capital University of Economics and Business (CUEB). The Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES) at Victoria University in Melbourne is the other Australian sponsor.

More than 40 trade, economic, population and agricultural academics and government officials from Australia, India, Vietnam, Beijing universities and a number of north-west and north-east provincial universities in China participated in the conference. A wide range of research work and findings by these experts on China's national and regional development, its relations with Australia, the ASEAN and the Subcontinent was reported, generated lively discussion and provided initiatives for further and future collaboration. At the conference, Prof Tran Van Hoa also emphasied again the growing importance of trade and relations between China, India (two of the world's fast growth and populous economies) and Australia for future strategic research. He pointed out the dominance of RTA developments such as the ASEAN+China, ASEAN+Japan and Korea, ASEAN Plus (created after the First East Asia Summit in Malaysia in 14 December 2005), ACFTA and Australia-Japan FTA proposals over other trade agreements such as the multilateral WTO. This dominance starts attracting international focus at the same time the actual gains from WTO memberships have been found by international experts to be empirically weak or not significant at all (see for example, Rose, 2004 in AER, and Tran Van Hoa, 2006 in JKE). 

In the photo below taken at the ACFTA Conference are, from left to right and sitting, Dr Bui Anh Tuan (Institute of World Economy, Vietnam), Dr Pham Lan Huong (Deputy Head, Economic Integration Department, Ministry of Planning and Investment, Vietnam), Prof Charles Harvie (Director, SME Research Centre, University of Wollongong, Australia), Prof Tran Van Hoa (Director, Vietnam and ASEAN Plus Research Program, Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia), Prof Shovan Ray (Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research, Reserve Bank of India), Prof Li Yang (Local Organiser, Dean, School of Statistics, CUEB, Beijing), Prof Zhao Yanyun (Local Organiser, Director, China Center for Competitiveness Studies, RUC, Beijing), Prof Liu Yang (Local Organiser, Dean, School of Statistics, CUFE, Beijing). 

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While in Beijing, Prof Tran Van Hoa also visited senior academics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) to further international networking and research collaboration development between Australia and China. In the photo below taken at the RUC University House are, from left to right, Prof Gao Peyong (Director, Institute of Public Finance, CASS, Beijing), Prof Tran Van Hoa, and Prof Du Huang (Vice-President, RUC, Beijing).

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WTO and ASEAN FTA: Expectations and Outcomes

4-5 December 2006, NATI, Ministry of Trade, Hanoi, Vietnam

The aspirations of many countries in the world to be members of the WTO (an off-shoot of GATT, GATS, TRIMS, TRIPS and with recent added-on income equality and poverty alleviation), to make sometimes painful and long-negotiated commitments and to carry out 'hard' reforms are well-known especially for developing countries in Asia. These aspirations and membership-derived expected outcomes have occupied many minds at the different levels of sophistication (that is, from elementary textual (or what are made commitments and required implementation) to descriptive, correlational, simple analytical, advanced and realistic and credible empirical causality studies) and much of the global and aid agency resources. What are the substantiated gains or positive outcomes of this WTO membership and as compared against other current agreements (such as the AFTA or ASEAN Free Trade Area or Agreement) to liberalise trade and enhance growth and living standards?  

Prof Tran Van Hoa recently attended the 2006 Asian Forum on Business Education (AFBE, based in Thailand) organised by the National Advanced Training Institute (NATI), Vietnam Ministry of Trade, in Hanoi, to deliver a keynote speech in which he presented some new international substantive evidence on these gains and outcomes for Asian economies (Andrew Rose in his 2004 American Economic Review paper reported similar evidence for other countries). This evidence shows pure and simple that an AFTA membership (which is not beset by Doha Round negotiations difficulties in addition) has robustly performed much better than a WTO membership to meet their trade and growth enhancement objectives. Implications for policy-makers, WTO, UNCTAD and aid or donor agencies? Future resources by regional and global trade and aid agencies should be better spent on high-level trade policy capacity-building (which trade policy?) of AFTA government officials and especially much needed rigorous policy impact (why or what for? and costs and benefits) analysis in this AFTA or other similar trade agreements to obtain significant cost-effective and mutual benefits. The speech was well received by the AFBE participants who included Vietnam Vice Minister of Trade, a Deputy Director of SAMEO and senior business executives, and came from a number of major countries such as the US, the UK, China and Hong Kong, South Africa, Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Oman, New Zealand, Vietnam and Australia.

In the photo taken at the opening of the 2006 AFBE conference at the NATI Conference Centre are, from left to right, Assoc Prof Dr Pham Quang Thao (NATI Rector and Local Organiser); HE Vice Minister of Trade, Mr Tran Duc Minh; Prof Dr Brian Sheehan (President, AFBE); Dr. Wahdi Salasi April Yuhdi (Deputy Director, The Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization (SAMEO)); and Prof Dr Tran Van Hoa

 

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In the photo below taken at the closing of the 2006 AFBE conference at NATI in Hanoi are some of the participants.

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WTO, Vietnam's High-Growth Regions and Risks

30 November 2006, Institute of Economic Studies, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Prof Tran Van Hoa participated, on 30 Nov 2006, in an ARC Linkage Project Workshop on the WTO, Regional Trade Agreements and Their Impact on Vietnam's Southern Regions. The Workshop was organised by the Institute of Economic Studies (IES) of the Ho Chi Minh City People Committee in conjunction with Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT), Ministry of Trade, an industry partner of the ARC Linkage Project ASEAN+3 and Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade. Vietnam's southern provinces are known as the country's chief driver of growth, and high expectations on more trade and FDI are generated as a result of Vietnam's official WTO membership in operation by the end of December 2006

Tran Van Hoa pointed out that while high expectations are legitimate for new WTO members, the positive outcomes, from international evidence, may be relatively small, and, from recent historical events in the region, they are also strongly associated with risks (such as domestic turmoil and inappropriate reform policies, regional and global shocks). He called for caution and reservation by policy-makers about the hyped-up outcomes by WTO-oriented advocates and consultants arising from a WTO membership and focus instead on the fundamental issues of competitiveness and comparative advantages in international trade and commerce to support sustainable development and regional economic relations.

In the photo below taken at the conclusion of the Workshop at the IES are, from left to right, Assoc Prof Dr Nguyen Van Lich (Director General, VIT, and ARC Linkage Partner Investigator), Prof Dr Tran Van Hoa (ARC Linkage Chief Investigator), Dr Tran Du Lich (Director, IES), and Assoc Prof Dr Tran Dinh Thien (Institute of Economics, Hanoi) 

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The photo below shows some participants at the Workshop

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WTO and Asian Economic Integration: What Regional and Provincial Economies Gain?

11 August 2006, Hue, Vietnam

While the negotiations for WTO and FTA memberships focus on national or aggregate benefits (and losses), concerns are ripe about the realisation of these benefits (and losses) at the grass-roots, provincial or regional level. It is accepted generally that WTO and FTA memberships, often after long and hard negotiations lasting many years, can bring about more trade, enhanced development and growth, welfare improvement and poverty reduction, otherwise the aspiring countries will not sign the agreements. It is also clear that not all regions and sectors of a member country can uniformly gain from the memberships. In fact, some sectors and regions will lose This painful truth is found both in developed (such as Australia) as well developing countries (eg, China and India).

To investigate this imbalance of gains and losses from WTO or FTA memberships, Tran Van Hoa organised a workshop on 11 August 2006 in the ancient imperial city of Hue, Central Vietnam. The workshop is a research activity of an FTA. Trade and Development in Asia Project supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC), Vietnam Ministry of Trade and the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES) at Victoria University in Melbourne, Australia. The workshop had the collaboration of the Thua Thien-Hue Provincial People's Committee. The objectives of the workshop were to investigate the understanding of WTO/FTA memberships at the provincial and regional level, their possible impact on the provincial economies and sectors, and how to bring about benefits to these sectors and regions. More than 35 senior government officials and economic and trade experts attended the workshop where heated discussions and debates were noted. The workshop was nationally televised in Vietnam scoring its significance and interest. 

In the photo below taken at the openning of the workshop at the Dien Bien Hotel in Hue, Central Vietnam, are, from left to right, Dr Nguyen Van Lich (Director-General, Vietnam Institute for Trade, Ministry of Trade, ARC Project Industry Partner), Dr Nguyen Tan Thien (Vice-Chairman, People's Committee of the Thua Thien-Hue Province), Prof Tran Van Hoa (Director, Vietnam and ASEAN+ Research Program, Victoria University, Melbourne, ARC Project Leader), and Prof Tran Than Quoc (Institute of World Economics, Hanoi). 

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Vietnam and Its Implementation Preparation of

WTO and Asian FTA Commitments

7-10 August 2006, Ministry of Trade, Hanoi, Vietnam

Prof Tran Van Hoa recently participated in a series of Policy Advising Workshops and a Dissemination Seminar organized by ACIL-Cardno and Department of Planning and Investment (DPI), Vietnam Ministry of Trade (MOT), in Hanoi, during 7-10 August 2006. The activities were the outcomes in the first round of the 2005-2007 Trade Analysis and Reform Project (TARP) funded by the Australian Government agency AusAID and co-ordinated by ACIL-Cardno to assist government officials in 4 ASEAN countries, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, in their trade policy capacity-building under WTO and Asian FTA commitments.

 The workshops, taking place in Hanoi during 7-9 August 2006, were designed to assist a select group of Vietnam trade officials and academics in carrying out relevant research (1) to prepare available trade options (training) and (2) to propose effective implementable trade policies (mentoring) of the country’s major negotiated commitments under its general economic integration but especially under its forthcoming WTO membership. The specific commitments under study in this round cover (a) import control measures, (b) distribution services and (c) subsidies and countervailing measures. These commitments and, more importantly, their economic, trade, environment and social implications are currently of high priorities managed by MOT as its ministerial functions.

The final research reports were presented at the dissemination seminar (chaired by the Deputy Director-General of DPI, Dr Hoang Thinh Lam) for discussion and media exposure on 10 August 2006 at the Melia Hotel in Hanoi. Over 30 participants from a number of ministries, universities, media organisations and diplomatic missions attended the seminar where vibrant (as assessed by AusAID representative) exchanges of views, ideas, questions and answers on the research outcomes and specially their policy implications were noted, and further major topics to be researched in future TARP programs were suggested by DPI. At the seminar, Prof Tran Van Hoa was interviewed by the government media, Voice of Vietnam, about the research policy outcomes and possible implementation, their methodological robustness and their policy options credibility for broadcasting nationally.

In the photo of some participants below taken at the dissemination seminar at the Melia Hotel in Hanoi, on 10 August 2006, are (from left to right, front row) Dr Pham Quang Thao (Rector, National Advanced Training Institute, MOT), Prof Tran Van Hoa (Research Professor and Director, Vietnam and ASEAN+ Research Program, Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia), Mr Nguyen Quang Anh (Program Officer, AusAID, Australian Embassy, Hanoi) and Ms Susan McKeag (First Secretary, AusAID, Australian Embassy, Hanoi).

 

Korea and the World Economy V

7-8 July 2006, Korea University, Seoul

Tran Van Hoa participated in the Korea and the World Economy V: Korea and the FTA Conference put on by the Association of the Korean Economic Studies (AKES), Korea Development Institute, Korea University-BK21-Economics, Korea Institute of Finance (KIF) and Washington University (Seattle, USA) at Korea University in Seoul on 7-8 July 2006 to deliver a paper on the impact of economic reforms and global shocks on the Korea economy and trade and to discuss papers presented. While at the Korea University, he also attended a Best Paper Award Ceremony to receive a prize from the AKES for his paper New Asian Regionalism published in the Journal of the Korean Economy in 2004

The photo below taken at the Award Ceremony in the Conference Room of Korea University shows Prof Tran Van Hoa receiving the 2004 Best Paper Award Plaque, looked on by the President of AKES, Prof Sung Tae Ro. 

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Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) V Conference,

United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia and Pacific (ESCAP) Training Course

5-6 July 2006, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Korea

Tran Van Hoa attended the APEF V Conference to deliver a paper on the gains and losses of an Australian-China free trade agreement which is currently (2006) under negotiation between the governments of Australia and China. APEF (in contrast to the World Economic Forum) is a new economics society founded in 2001 at Kangwon National University by a group of international renowned economics and trade experts from major countries in the APEC. It holds annual meetings to report and discuss new economics, trade and relations developments in the region. Prof Tran Van Hoa was the APEF Foundation President. The significant novelty of the paper is its use of Tran Van Hoa's generalized gravity theory which has many theoretical advantages and econometric improvements on the traditional CGE/GTAP approach and its various extensions to provide more realistic and credible outcomes and related policy recommendations to policy-makers.

While in Chuncheon, Prof Tran Van Hoa also participated in the training course for sustainable development for young leaders from the Asia Pacific organised by Kangwon National University, Koica and UNESCAP in Bangkok. A total of 20 government officials and media representatives from 14 Asia Pacific countries attended the training course. 

In the photo below taken at the KNU training centre in Chuncheon are the UNESCAP-KNU Asia-Pacific trainees and Prof Tran Van Hoa (5th from right, second row).

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WTO, China and The Asian Economies IV

24-26 June 2006

University of International Business and Economics (UIBE), Beijing, China

Tran Van Hoa was an invited speaker at the WTO, China and the Asian Economies IV Conference organised by the UIBE and Washington University (USA) to deliver a paper on China economy, trade and growth and how natural disasters can affect its development. More than 80 economists and experts from 20 countries participated in the conference which took place in the Beijing Grand Continental Hotel within the precinct of the Asian and 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing.

In the photo below taken at a welcoming dinner at the Ting Li Guan Restaurant in the Royal Summer Palace in Beijing are Prof Guijun Lin, Vice-President of UIBE, and Prof Tran Van Hoa.

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AUSTRALIA-MALAYSIA: A DIFFICULT RELATIONSHIP?

2 June 2006, Windsor Hotel, Melbourne

In spite of their similar political structures, geographical nearness, historical links, and the economic, social and regional cooperation successes of Malaysia in the past few decades, the relationship between Australia and Malaysia has not been easy in recent years at both the commercial and highest political levels. Attention in both countries is needed to improve this relationship for mutual benefits especially with the introduction of the 9th Malaysia Plan. These were the topics for review and discussion at the Australia-Malaysia Forum on 2 June 2006 at the Windsor Hotel in Melbourne. The Forum was supported by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) , the Asia Society AustralAsia Centre, and the Centre for Malaysian Studies of the Monash Asia Institute. Notable speakers were  the Hon. Dato Seri Syed Hamid Albar (Malaysia Foreign Minister), Tan Sri Ramon V Navaratnam (Director, Sunway Group Corporate, Monash Malaysia Board of Directors, Malaysia), Dato Dr Michael Yeoh (CEO and Director, Asian Strategy & Leadership Institute, Malaysia), Datuk Eddy Chen Lok Noi (Managing Director, Metro Kajang Holdings Berhad, and President, ASEAN Association for Planning & Housing), the Hon. Michael Johnson (MP and Chairman, Australia-Malaysia Caucus in the Australian Government), Prof Richard Larkins (VC, Monash University which runs a successful off-shore campus in Malaysia), Prof Stephanie Fahey (Deputy VC, International, Monash University), and senior Australian academics and business executives. A total of more than 100 people attended the Forum and subsequent reception.

At the Forum, Prof Tran Van Hoa raised the question on the recent (Kuala Lumpur, 14 December 2005) proposed enlargement of the ASEAN to include Australia and New Zealand (among other major trading blocs) after Australia decided to sign, after a long delay, the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, and the view, if any, of Malaysia about the potential costs, benefits or problems of this regional membership and its impact on the relationship between Australia and Malaysia. This is in the context of a difficult relationship between the two countries in the past.

In the photo below taken at the Windsor Hotel are, from left to right, Prof Tran Van Hoa, Malaysia Foreign Minster, the Hon. Dato Seri Syed Hamid Albar, and Ms Elisabeth Hames-Brooks (Honorary Fellow, Monash Asia Institute).

 

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VIETNAM DEVELOPMENT AND PROSPECTS:

A DIPLOMATIC CONCLUSION

26 May 2006, Sidney Myer Asia Centre, University of Melbourne, Australia

Vietnam’s new (since November 2005) ambassador to Australia, HE Nguyen Thanh Tan, accompanied by his First Secretary, Mr Nguyen Van Nhat, visited Melbourne on 26 May 2006 to deliver his first public lecture in Victoria on Vietnam’s recent economic achievements, reforms, growing trade with Australia (worth $A3,896 million in 2005), and prospects after the country’s 10th Party Congress taking place in Hanoi last April. The visit was organised by the Asia Link in collaboration with the Department of Political Science at the University of Melbourne to keep Australian academics, experts and public informed of the various aspects of economic, trade and political developments in the Asian region. More than 40 people attended the lecture and participated in the ensuing discussions.

Prof Tran Van Hoa attended the lecture and participated in the discussion on Vietnam’s reform successes and contribution to the region’s economic progress, political stability and cooperation. He also suggested, as a strategy for economic growth and further regional cooperation, Vietnam’s stronger links with friendly countries in the region and beyond either through diplomacy, trade or effective ODA programs, to enhance the country’s trading position and capacity building to gain the most from its forthcoming WTO membership expected by the end of 2006.

In the photo below taken at the Yasuko Hiraoka Myer Room at the Sidney Myer Asia Centre, University of Melbourne, are, from left to right, Ms Kieu Thanh (Ph D Research Scholar, Faculty of Business and Law, Victoria University), HE Nguyen Thanh Tan (Vietnam Ambassador to Australia), Prof Tran Van Hoa, and Ms Elisabeth Hames-Brooks (Honorary Fellow, Monash Asia Institute, Monash University).

 

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WTO MEMBERSHIP AND ASEAN FTA:

IMPACT ON CAMBODIA, LAOS, THAILAND AND VIETNAM

Bangkok 7-11 May 2006

Prof Tran Van Hoa recently participated in the 2006 Regional Progress Workshop, organised by the consulting firm ACIL (Australia) as part of the Trade Analysis and Reform Project (TARP) funded by the Australian Government's AusAID over the period 2005-08, to assist in capacity-building of government officials in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, to prepare and manage their countries' WTO accession negotiations and implementation. A total of 11 research projects of high-priority national interest and specifically dealing with trade and reforms in the context of the WTO and ASEAN free trade agreements were selected by these countries senior government officials for analysis. At the workshop, about 30 government officials were present to report their research progress and to receive feedback from TARP consultants (trainers, mentors and project managers) which included business consultants, well-known academics and senior government officials from Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the US, the UK and Hong Kong.  

In the photo below taken at the closing of the Workshop in the Crystal Ballroom of Holiday Inn in Silom Road, Bangkok, are (first row, from left to right) Prof Tran Van Hoa (Vietnam Mentor, 4th place), Bill Bowen (Laos Mentor, 6th), Ms Raviprapa Srisartsanarat (TARP Project Manager, AusAID, Australian Embassy, Bangkok, 8th), Alan Oxley (Vietnam Trainer, ITS, 9th), and Sam Chittick (TARP Project Manager, ACIL, 14th). 

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AUSTRALIA-CHINA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT:

WHO GAINS AND WHO LOSES?

Capital University of Business and Economics (CUBE) and

Renmin University of China (RUC), Beijing

Beijing, China, 17-18 April 2006

Regional free trade agreements (FTAs) have proliferated in Asia and the Pacific in recent years. As accepted exceptions under the GATT and GATS and born chiefly out of the WTO slow progress and the benign neglect from North America and the European Union of Asia economic and financial woes, these FTAs in fact deal also with investment and economic relations that are outside the WTO scope. Notable among these FTAs are the Australia-Singapore, Australia-Thailand, Australia-US, and the currently under negotiation US-Malaysia, Korea-New Zealand, Korea-4 (Korea, Chile, Brunei and Singapore), Australia-Malaysia and Australia-China. In the case of the Australia-China FTA (ACFTA) under negotiation, substantive evidence on the benefits and losses of a credible kind for FTA members, nationally or at the regional level, has not been adequately studied and reported.

In response to this lack of substantive research and information for informed debates, Tran Van Hoa, with the funding support from Australia Department of Foreign Affairs, AusAID-ISSS Division, and China high-level academic institutions, led a group of ASEAN and Australia experts on regional FTAs to participate in a 2-day 2-university conference and experts symposium in Beijing to report on important new research work by ASEAN, Australian and Chinese experts on sectoral, regional and national gains and losses of an ACFTA to improve informed trade analysis and trade policy by the two countries. Over 25 and 70 ASEAN, Australian and Chinese academics and experts attended the CUBE experts symposium and the RUC conference respectively.  

The photo below taken at the Opening Address given by the Local Organiser, Prof Yanyun Zhao, at the ACFTA Conference in the School of Statistics Building on RUC campus on 18 April 2006 shows some of the participants.

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 In the photo below are, from left to right, (2nd to 7th) Prof Euamporn Tasarika (Thammasat University, Thailand), Dr Pham Lan Huong (Head, Economic Integration Division, CIEM, Ministry of Planning and Investment, Vietnam), Sonya McKay (Lawyer and Australia Green Party candidate), Prof Charles Harvie (Director, SME Research Centre, Wollongong University, Australia), Prof Tran Van Hoa (ACFTA Conference Facilitator), and Prof Yanyun Zhao (Director, China Competitiveness Research Center, Renmin University of China in Beijing, and ACFTA Conference Local Organiser). 

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TRADE ANALYSIS AND REFORM PROJECT (TARP) FOR

CAMBODIA, LAOS, THAILAND AND VIETNAM

Bangkok and Hanoi, 12-17 February 2006

Tran Van Hoa recently joined an international team of trainers and mentors to provide high-level training and research capacity-building on the WTO/FTA and its practical policy implementation for government officials in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. The TARP is funded by the Australian Government AusAID over three years (2005-07) to the CARDNO-ACIL-ITS consulting consortium. To support the work of TARP, a number of international high-profile and experienced consultants are sourced from universities and private corporations in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore and Sri Lanka. A total of 200 government officials from the Commerce and Trade Ministries of the four ASEAN countries above will be trained in five rounds to deal with WTO and FTA rules, commitments. schedules, exemptions and dispute settlements (the usual but highly important chores for WTO/FTA negotiations and implementations) over the TARP duration. 

In the photo below are some members of the TARP trainer and mentor team after the Briefing Session at the Sofitel Hotel Central Plaza in Bangkok, Thailand: (from left to right) Bill Dymond (Director, Centre for Trade Policy and Law, Carlton University, Canada), Alan Oxley (Managing Director, Monash University APEC Study Centre), Bill Bowen (Principal Consultant, ITS Global, Melbourne), Prof Tran Van Hoa (CSES and Director, Vietnam and ASEAN+ Research Program, Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia), and Dr Razeen Sally (ISEAS, Singapore).

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The TARP briefings in Hanoi coincided with the celebration of Australia Day (delayed due to the Tet - New Year - on 29 January 2006) in Vietnam held by the Australian Embassy at the Melia, Hanoi. In the photo are Professor Tran Van Hoa and H.E. Bill Tweddle, Australian Ambassador to Vietnam.

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A New Approach to Better Study the Impact of the WTO Membership and Free Trade Agreements: International Recognition

30 January 2006, Chunchon, Korea

The WTO membership and its subsets, regional free trade agreements (FTAs), are considered world-wide the main frameworks to promote trade, development, growth and welfare improvement for member countries. However, the benefits (and costs) of these frameworks are usually perceived in official negotiations and expert debates leading to a WTO/FTA membership more as an article of faith (in free-market economics) than as hard or reliable substantive empirical evidence. The importance of more reliable empirical evidence on this impact of the WTO and FTAs is recognised in the form of the 2004 Best Paper Prize awarded recently by the Association of the Korean Economic Studies (AKES) to a journal article written by Prof Tran Van Hoa, Korea’s Trade, Growth of Trade and the World Economy in Post-crisis ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement: An Econometric and Policy Analysis, Journal of the Korean Economy, 2004, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 73-108. Online access:www.akes.or.kr/jke/index.htm. The paper introduces the Generalised Gravity Theory and a new modelling and impact study approach (with superior properties to existing quantitative methodologies adopted by some academics and international organisations such as the IMF, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank) to investigate and causally explain Korea's spectacular ups-and-downs economic performance in the past 30 years.

ASEAN, China, India: Their Roles in Regional Economic Integration

Monash Asia Institute, Melbourne, 19 January 2006

Regional economic integration (EI) and free trade agreements (FTAs) have proliferated in Asia and Oceania in recent years, resulting in, for example, the current AFTA, ASEAN+3, Australia-Thailand, Australia-Singapore, Japan+Singapore, and the proposed ASEAN+Australia, ASEAN+India and ASEAN+Russia. The ASEAN+ FTAs in particular are important for South East Asian countries in their regional strategic alignment to promote growth, investment, services, economic relations and co-operation, and political dialogue. These issues and the implications of the economic performance and sustainability of China and India or China vis-à-vis India were discussed by Prof B.B. Bhattacharya, the new Vice-Chancellor of India’s prestigious postgraduate university, Jewaharlal Nehru University (JNU), at a recent seminar on India as an Emerging Economic Power: Constraints and Imperatives at Monash Asia Insitute on 19 January 2006. (It is important to note that one of the JNU’s long-established traditions is that JNU’s Vice-Chancellors are appointed by the President of India). During the seminar discussion, Tran Van Hoa raised the issue of comparative economic performance of China and India since India’s well-known Mahalanobis-Plan days in 1960s, and the conditionality and sustainability of the growth of these two giants (and even Japan, Korea and lesser Singapore) essentially on technology transfer and its continuance from the US and the European Union. In addition, both countries still face serious issues of poverty (200 and 160 million poor in China and India respectively) and income inequality (due more to globalisation) that their trade and growth policy should urgently and appropriately address to avoid social unrest.

 In the photo taken before the seminar at the Monash University Medical School lecture-room are Prof Tran Van Hoa and Prof Bhattacharya.

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Methodologies to Measure the Impact of Free Trade Agreements and the WTO

6 December 2005, Hanoi, Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT), Ministry of Trade, Vietnam

While there are many ways, from simple to sophisticated, to measure the effects of economic policy and change, and global co-operation, existing methods such as the CGE/GTAP or gravity theory, while popular and useful, may not be appropriate for robust and realistic outcomes because of their structural restrictions and data limitations. A survey of these methods and other new and more reliable approaches (such as the Generalised Gravity Theory proposed in 2002 by Tran Van Hoa and applied extensively) was provided by Tran Van Hoa recently when he attended the Australian Research Council-VIT workshop, organised by the 2004-07 ARC Linkage Industry Partner, VIT, in Hanoi, to deliver a lead lecture on recent methodologies to evaluate the benefits and costs of free trade agreements (FTAs) and the WTO membership. The workshop was also used as a venue for capacity-building for government officials in Vietnam to better formulate and manage economic and trade policy for the country at this stage of its development. More than 40 officials from a number of major ministries, universities and research institutes participated in the workshop.

In the photo below taken at the Conference Centre at the VIT Headquarter, 46 Ngo Quyen, Hanoi, are, from left to right, Doctoral Scholar Ho Trung Thanh, (Head, Research Department, VIT), Dr Pham Lan Huong (Head, Economic Integration Department, Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), Ministry of Planning and Investment), Prof Tran Van Hoa (ARC Linkage Project Leader), and Prof Dr Nguyen Van Lich (Director-General, VIT, and ARC Linkage Industry Partner).

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Asian Forum on Business Education

30 Nov-2 Dec 2005, Ubonrajathani University, Thailand

The ways business has been conducted in major Asian countries in recent years were discussed at the 10th Asian Forum on Business Education (AFBE) conference organised by the Faculty of Management Sciences at Ubonrajathani University in north-east Thailand during 30 Nov-2 Dec 2005. More than 50 experts, academics, corporate executives, and MBA and DBA students from major countries in Asia, Australasia, Europe and North America, participated in the AFBE conference. Prof Tran Van Hoa delivered the first keynote speech in which he contrasted the requirements of free market economics and globalisation and the way Asia actually conducts its business given its political, cultural, social, religious and historical environment. A reminder to the conference participants on the balance between economic efficiency (profit maximising) and equity and income distribution (fairness to all, producer and consumer, buyer and seller, lender and borrower) was also emphasied.

In the photo taken at the conference venue, the Tor Sang Hotel, are, from left to right, Prof Dr Apichai Puntasen (Dean, Faculty of Management Sciences, Ubonrajathani University), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof  Prakob Wirojanagud (President, Ubonrajatani University), and Prof Brian Sheehan (President and Secretary, AFBE)

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The photo below shows some of the participants at the Opening Ceremony of the 10th AFBE conference.

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Issues of Trade, Development, Investment, Cooperation, and Integration in an Enlarged ASEAN

Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES), Victoria University

24-25 November 2005, Victorian Arts Centre, Melbourne

Tran Van Hoa convened and organised an important high-level international conference on 24-25 November 2005 at the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies (CSES), Victoria University, Melbourne City Campus. The theme of the conference was Issues of Trade, Development and Integration in an Enlarged ASEAN (the Association of the 10 South East Asian Nations) where the ASEAN is to be enlarged to include the world’s other major countries and trading blocs outside the ASEAN region. These include for example China. Japan, Korea, India, Russia, the European Union, North America, and Australia and New Zealand. The significance of this for Australia’s commerce, industry and education is that an ASEAN+China and India bloc alone accounts for nearly 50 per cent of the world’s population, more 54 per cent of Australia’s total international trade, and most of Australia’s sources of supply of international students and education income, present and future.

Funded by the Australian Government’s AusAID and the Faculty of Business and Law, the conference attracted eminent economists and speakers from major countries in an enlarged ASEAN region. These include China (Renmin University of China, Beijing, and Shanghai Jiaotong University), India (Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research, Reserve Bank of India), Thailand (Ubon Rajathani University), Vietnam (Ministry of Planning and Investment), Britain and Australia/New Zealand. Participants (numbered more than 50) included senior state and federal government officials (eg, Victorian Department of Innovation Industry and Regional Development and Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade), major manufacturing, services and consulting companies (eg, BlueScope Steel, Orica Ltd, Toll Ports, and TradeData), international business education and research units, university scholars and research institutes, and international students from major countries in the ASEAN, Subcontinent, Middle East and EU regions.

Interest was also shown by such organisations in Australia as the NSW-Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and the Consulate General of Vietnam.

The special focus of the conference was to discuss major issues in trade in merchandise goods, services (including education and finance), investment, across- and inside-border economic integration, corporate culture in international business, poverty reduction through trade, the effectiveness of ODA-related micro-finance programmes, the role of SMEs and agriculture (a major obstacle in on-going WTO negotiations), issues of intellectual properties (eg, pharmaceuticals), issues of large trade surplus for Asian economies, and regional economic relations and cooperation between enlarged ASEAN members. Some of these are timely and major issues for presentation and discussion in the forthcoming agenda of the First East Asia Summit by enlarged ASEAN Heads of State and hosted by the Government of Malaysia taking place on 13-14 December 2005 in Kuala Lumpur.

In the photo below taken at the Conference Opening Ceremony at the Amcor-Commonwealth Bank Suites at the Victorian Arts Centre are, from left to right, Prof Bhajan Grewal (CSES), the Hon Prof Stephen Martin [Pro Vice-Chancellor – International, Victoria University, and former Speaker of the House (Australian Parliament) and Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade], Prof Peter Sheehan (Director, CSES, VU), Prof Tran Van Hoa (website: http://www.staff.vu.edu.au/CSESBL/), and Prof Shovan Ray (Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research, Reserve Bank of India)

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 In the photo below are some of the participants attending the conference.

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The photo below, taken at the Vice-Chancellor Conference Suite at Victoria University Melbourne City Campus, shows some of the participants at the roundtable discussion of the First East Asia Summit and other trade, investment, services, and economic co-operation issues.

 

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Impact of Asian Free Trade Agreements and the WTO on China's Regional Development

10-13 November 2005

Capital University of Business and Economics (CUBE), Beijing, and

Dong Bei (North-East) University of Finance and Economics (DUFE), Dalian, China

Four in a network of a total of 30 Universities of Business, Economics and Finance in China recently held an international conference Statistical Modelling and Regional Economic Development in West China at the Capital (Beijing) University of Business and Economics (CUBE), Beijing, to discuss economic development issues in North-East, North-West, Central West and South-West China, and the impact of Asian free trade agreements and the WTO on this regional development. Tran Van Hoa was a keynote speaker at this conference which was funded by businesses and the local and central governments. The conference attracted more than 60 participants from all regions in China, and the papers presented cover a wide range of issues, from FDI, migration, education, and SMEs to regional input/output analysis and mathematical and econometric modelling methodologies. The conference was also hailed as a major success in capacity-building for China at its most vulnerable and still underdeveloped regional level. After the conference, Tran Van Hoa also visited the North-East University of Finance and Economics in Dalian to present a Special Sunday Lecture to over 60 staff and students (see the photo below) on how to measure best the regional impact of recent Asian and global economic and financial developments on exports and growth in the province.

In the photo below are, from left to right, Prof Hong Ji (Head of the Statistics Department, CUBE, and Local Organiser), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Wenju Wang (Vice President, CUBE), and Prof Yanyun Zhao (Director. Center for Competitiveness Studies, and China Center for Applied Statistics, Renmin University of China, and Local Organiser)

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In the photo below are Prof Tran Van Hoa (5th from left, first row, standing) and Prof Charles Harvie (6th, Director, SME Research Centre, University of Wollongong) with some participants in front of the Conference Centre at the Winterless Hotel in Beijing.

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The photo below shows some of the audience at the Special Sunday Lecture given by Prof Tran Van Hoa at Dong Bei (literally East North) University of Finance and Economics (DUFE) in Dalian on Sunday 13 November 2005.

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How to Measure More Reliably the Rural Impact of Asia-Australia Free Trade Agreements
 19 October 2005, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia

Tran Van Hoa was invited to visit the Faculty of Commerce at Charles Sturt University in Wagga Wagga to present a seminar on how to measure more reliably the rural or regional impact of Asia-Australia free trade agreements. These FTAs have proliferated in all regions of the globe and stimulated widespread research and strong academic, corporate and political debates in recent years. A consensus on the benefits and costs of FTAs both at the national and regional or rural level has however not been achieved. In addition, while projected gains and losses for FTA members reflect essentially an article of faith in causal directionality of trade, economic and business activities in FTA negotiations, existing quantitative methodologies such as the CGE/GTAP adopted by the Interntional Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the UNCTAD, or the gravity theory and the panel regression used by some academics, trade researchers and international organisations are restrictive, at best suboptimal and may be even grossly inappropriate. A survey of these methodologies was discussed by Prof Tran Van Hoa at the seminar and a new empirical approach with econometrically superior properties and more realism or data-consistency for proper policy analysis was presented. 

In the photo taken at the seminar are, from left to right, Associate Prof Kishor Sharma (Sub Dean, International Research), Prof Tran Van Hoa,
Prof Eddie Oczkowski, and Chris Deely (Seminar Convenor) 
 

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Measuring Women's Worth in Society and the Economy

28 September 2005, University of Melbourne, Australia

Women's contribution to society and the economy world-wide had been, for more than 100 years, neglected or grossly underestimated by mainstream economics and sociology and, occasionally, even by university and college presidents. This is unfortunate despite the seminal studies on women's market and non-market work and pay or worth by Charlotte Perkins Gilman in 1898 (Women and Economics), Margaret Reid in 1934 (Economics of Household Production) or Gary Becker (USA) and Duncan Ironmonger (Australia) in more recent years. This perception and deficit have however been rectified to a large extent by significant studies by international experts in the area and published in August 2005 in Tran Van Hoa (editor) Advances in Household Economics, Consumer Behaviour and Economic Policy (Ashgate, Aldershot, UK).

The timely and important book contains recent studies, in honour of Duncan Ironmonger's life-time work, on the state-of-the-art in the measurement and application of household economics and household production, and on new developments of consumer behaviour (essential for effective marketing). More importantly, the book discusses the implications of these advances for more appropriate and effective analysis and formulation of contemporary economic and social and welfare policy in both developed and and developing countries and at the micro and macroeconomic level. The studies contained in the book also point out that women's worth is immense for society and, in an economic sense, far excceds the GDP (as measured routinely so far by market activities only) of a nation.

The book was formally launched by Prof Emeritus Joe Isaac at the invitation of Prof Emeritus Jim Perkins, on 28 September 2005 at the University of Melbourne. Over 35 representatives from universities, state and federal governments, NGOs and the business sector were presented at the launch.

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In the photo below taken at University House, University of Melbourne, at the book's launch are, from left to right, Dr Duncan Ironmonger (Director, Households Research Unit, Department of Economics, University of Melbourne), Dr Barry Jones (President, Australian Labor Party), Prof Tran Van Hoa, and Prof Peter Sheehan (Director, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University).

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Asia and Regional Development in Australia

23 September 2005

Charles Sturt University, Orange, NSW, Australia

Tran Van Hoa attended and delivered a keynote speech at the 2005 Asia Update Forum in Orange on 23 September 2005. The Forum is a major annual regional event organised by Prof Kevin Parton, Dean and Campus Director, Faculty of Rural Management, and with the sponsorships from the government and private sectors. The purposes of the Forum are a compact venue where invited speakers from the local, state and national government departments, academics, and private corporation representatives get together to review recent trends and developments regionally, nationally and internationally, with a view to assist rural Australia in international business, trade and investment developments in the medium and long term.

Speakers at the 2005 Forum included the Director General of the NSW Regional and State Development Department, First Assistant Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, ABARE senior economist, Austrade commissioner, Chairman of the Central West Regional Development Board, Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Stephanie Fahey (University of Sydney), an MLA, and the regional manager of DEVRO.

In the photo taken at the Forum function below are, from left to right (standing), 1st, Mr Sandy Morrison (Chair, Central West Regional Development Board); 2nd, Jammie Penn (ABARE); 3rd partly obscured, Mr Loftus Harris (Director General, NSWRSDD); 4th, Prof Stephanie Fahey (Pro Vice Chancellor and Director, Research Institute for Asia and the Pacific, Sydney University); 9th, Prof Kevin Parton (Forum Organiser); 11th, Prof Tran Van Hoa; and 14th, Dan Williams, Trade Commissioner at the Australian Embassy in the Philippines.

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ASEAN+3 FREE TRADE AGREEMENT AND AUSTRALIA-VIETNAM TRADE

6 September 2005, Ministry of Trade, Hanoi, Vietnam

Tran Van Hoa recently participated in an ARC workshop on ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Recent Trends in Trade and Development in ASEAN at the Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT), Ministry of Trade (MOT), in Hanoi. The workshop was organised by the ARC Industry Partner, VIT, and was a venue to report the progress research work of the first stage of activities of the ARC Linkage Project ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade. At the workshop, aspects and issues of FTAs, recent trends in trade, investment, development, growth, and regional economic relations were presented and discussed by Prof Tran Van Hoa (the ARC Chief Investigator) and VIT researchers. More than 30 MOT government officials attended the workshop.

A fieldtrip for the ARC Chief Investigator to a southern province in Vietnam, Nha Trang, was also organised by VIT following the workshop. The purpose was to have a better understanding of regional challenges, opportunities, and concern about the impact of the ASEAN+3 FTA and the responses that may be prepared.

In the photo below taken at the workshop are, from left to right, Ho Trung Thanh (ARC VIT Project Manager), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Dr Nguyen Van Thanh (Deputy Director General, VIT), and Nguyen Van Duong (Director, International Office, VIT).

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In the photo below is a view of participants at the workshop at VIT headquarters in Hanoi.

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15th International Input-Output Association Conference
Renmin University of China, Beijing, 28 June-1 July 2005

During 28-29 June 2005, Tran Van Hoa also attended, as an IOA delegate invited by the Local Organiser, the 15th Interntional Conference of the Input Output Association that took place at Run Run Shaw Conference Center at the Renmin University of China in Beijing. The Conference was highly significant in that it was the first ever IIOA conference taking place in China. It was organised by the Local Organiser, Prof Yanyun Zhao, Director, Center for Applied Statistics, with the support from the RUC, China Statistics Bureau, and several other national oganisations. Topics for presentation in panel forum and contributed paper sessions and discussion include recent advances and applications in I/O analysis at both regional and national level. At the opening panel forum, Tran Van Hoa raised the issue of neglect by IO experts in their reveiw on the household (as opposite to the market)  production sector. This sector acoounts, by international statisticians, for a greater GDP than the Kuznets-type GDP as reported routinely by national and international statistical bureaux worldwide.

In the photo below taken in front of the School of Staitsics Building at Renmin University of China are, from left to right, Prof Qiyun Liu (IIOA Vice President, China) , Prof Yanyun Zhao (IIOA Vice President, China, and Conference Local Organiser), Prof Karen Rosel Polemke (former IIOA President, and Prof, Department of Urban Studies, MIT, USA), and Prof Tran Van Hoa,

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WTO, China and Other Asian Economies
X'ian Jiaotong University, X'ian, China, 25-26 June 2005

Tran Van Hoa recently attended the International Conference on the WTO, China and Asian Economies taking place at the X'ian Jiaotong University (XJTU) in X'ian which, to many, is the ancient birthplace of China's history and at the heart of the contemporary development high-priority Western China region. The Conference was sponsored by Washington University in Seattle (USA), the European Institute based at Fudan University in Shanghai, and the XJTU. More than 40 participants from different parts of China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Germany, the US, Malaysia, and Australia contributed to the presentation of their major research reports and lively discussions. The topics in 24 papers cover in two days trade theory and policy, investment, exports, economic policy reform and regional and global shocks, development and growth. and economic integration. The Conference proceedings were televised by Shan'xi TV.

In the photo below taken at the Conference Opening Ceremony at the X'ian Jiaotong University Conference Center are, from left to right, Prof Tran Van Hoa, Ms Aq Ying Gao (Shan'xi TV Representative) and Prof Zongxian Feng (Head of Department of Economics and Finance, XJTU), the Local Conference Organiser.

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Development and Co-operation in
the Mekong River Economies: Issues and Prospects

An AusAID-funded International Workshop
Hanoi 29-30 March 2005, NATI, Vietnam Ministry of Trade
 

An important international workshop with the theme Impact of the WTO and Regional Economic Integration on Development and Trade in the Mekong River Subregion Economies recently took place at the National Advanced Training Insitute (NATI), Vietnam Ministry of Trade, in Hanoi.

Facilitated by Prof Tran Van Hoa (Department of Economics, and Director, ASEAN+3 and Vietnam Focus Research Program, University of Wollongong, Australia), funded by AusAID, Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, locally organised by the NATI (Rector, Dr Pham Quang Thao), and co-sponsored by Prof Peter Sheehan, Director, the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University of Technology (Melbourne, Australia), the workshop attractedan unusually large number (more than 140 participants, see photo below) of senior experts, government officials and business executives from Vietnam and overseas. Vietnam Vice Minister of Trade, H.E. Tran Duc Minh, officially opened the workshop and gave a keynote address on major issues and important aspects of the workshop theme from Vietnam's perspective. Other workshop speakers on the national, regional and global focus issues include Prof  Yanyun Zhao, Renmin University of China in Beijing, Prof  Charles Harvie (Department of Economics and Director, the SME Research Centre, University of Wollongong), Prof Euamporn Tasarika (Thammasat University, Thailand), and Prof Tran Van Hoa.

Major issues for presentation and discussion were focused on the turbulent history of the economies in the GMS, their current economic and trade development nationally and within the framework of the WTO and regional economic integration, and the need for their co-operation to enhance their mutually important economic, commerce and political benefits in the medium and long term.
The workshop papers and discussion were widely reported in the English (eg, Viet Nam News and Vietnam Investment Review, 30 March 2005) and Vietnamese mass media.

In the photo below, taken in the NATI auditorium at the opening ceremony of the workshop, are, from left to right, Prof Yanyun Zhao (P.R. China), Prof Charles Harvie (Britain), Prof Euamporn Tasarika (Thailand), H.E. Tran Duc Minh, Vietnam Vice Minister of Trade, Prof Tran Van Hoa (Australia), and Dr Pham Quang Thao (Rector, NATI, MOT, Vietnam).
 

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In the photo below taken at the workshop during discussion are Prof Tran Van Hoa (left) and Mr Phanh Vilaysom, Economic and Commercial Counsellor at the Embassy of the Lao People Democratic Republic (PDR).
 

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Below is a photo of some of the participants, coming from the major ministries, national and international agencies, and national and transnational companies in Vietnam, attending the Workshop.
 

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ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement:
Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade and Investment
10 November 2004, Vietnam Institute for Trade, Hanoi
 

With the slow progress and still extensive disagreements on the Doha agenda and other WTO contentious issues, bilateral and plurilateral FTA and Closer Economic Relation (CER) Framework have proliferated especially in the Asian region in recent years. Within the economic foundation of the WTO objectives which is based essentially on a perfectly competitive economic model where economic and other benefits are gained by unhindered access to and movement of output and factors of production across markets (seeTran Van Hoa's Competition Policy and Global Competitiveness in Major Asian Economies, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 2003), these FTAs include the important AFTA, ASEAN+3,  Japan-Singapore, Australia-US, Australia-Thailand, and the proposed ASEAN+5, ASEAN+India and Australia-China. Benefits of these FTAs have so far been restricted to useful academic and political debates and dialogues on FTAs, plausible expectations from FTAs and CER between FTA members. Empirical support for the FTA-focussed comprehensive (that is, trade in goods, services, investment, competition and CER) benefits of FTAs have not been adequately dealt with, especially with existing inadequate methodologies with limited structure, scope and time spectrum such as the CGE/GTAP, gravity theory, and panel regression which are being used routinely by numerous national and international organisations including the IMF, the WTO and UNCTAD.

A new methodology with substantial and realistic improvements on economic structure, scope in trade, time-series data consistency and superior estimation and impact features has been proposed in a major international linkage research project to study an important regional economic and trade issue in Asia: the Impact of ASEAN+3 FTA on Australia-Vietnam TradeFunded by the Australian Government Research Council (ARC) for the period 2004-07, the project is managed by Prof Tran Van Hoa (the Chief Investigator) and with the collaboration of the Director-General (the Industry Partner Investigator), Prof Nguyen Van Lich, of Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT), a division of Vietnam Ministry of Trade. VIT-funds matching ARC grant were provided by Vietnam Ministry of Trade under the sponsorship of HE Le Danh Vinh, Vice Minister of Trade. Substantive empirical outcomes from the project are expected to provide timely, robust and reliable policy recommendations to both the governments and trade agencies in Australia and Vietnam to enhance their trade and economic well-being and regional cooperation and, as a result, stability and security in the region. Applications of the methodology to other FTAs such as the recent Australia-US and Australia-Thailand and the proposed ASEAN+India and Australia-China are also contemplated.

In the photo below taken at the Signing Ceremony of the ARC Linkage Project at the Vietnam Institute for Trade's conference  centre at its headquarter, 46 Ngo Quyen, Hanoi, are from left to right, Ms Nguyen Thi Nga (VIT Interpreter), Prof Dr Nguyen Van Lich (VIT Director-General), H.E. Le Danh Vinh (Vietnam Vice-Minister for Trade), H.E. Joe Thwaites (Australian Ambassador to Vietnam), and Prof Tran Van Hoa. The Signing Ceremony was nationally televised and reported in the radio and print media.
 
 

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What's New in Sex Discrimination and Economic Policy

4 November 2004
Department of Economics, University of Wollongong

Pru Goward, Australia's Federal Sex Discrimination Commissioner from the Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission, visited the University of Wollongong on 4 November 2004 to deliver the 2004 Economic and Social Policy Lecture. The lecture is a major annual event organised by the Department of Economics with a focus on significant public policy issues and nationally prominent speakers. Pru's lecture was on Work and Family Issues in the new John Howard Federal Government's Agenda and covered recent improvements or successes in women's participation in the economy's workforce. The lecture was given at the same time Tran Van Hoa completed his new bookAdvances in Household Economics, Consumer Behaviour and Economic Policy (Ashgate Publishing Ltd, London, 2004, in press) in which internationally well-known economists, working and writing on household production, unpaid work, satellite accounts, their important measurements, and use of new consumer demand systems and modelling for social security and welfare policy analysis, contribute their latest research to promote further the growing importance and acceptance of the household sector productivity in the economy and especially women's worth to society.

In the photo below taken at a post-lecture dinner at the University Food Re-thought Restaurant are
the Hon Sharon Bird, new Federal MP for Cunningham and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
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Second Italy-China International Conference on
Economic and Social Statistics
25 October 2004
University of Florence, Italy

As part of their on-going collaborative work in economic and statistical research within the Asia-Europe linkage framework, the University of Florence (UNIFI) in Italy and the Renmin University of China (RUC) in Beijing, China,  jointly held their 2nd interntional conference at the Department of Statistics (G. Parenti) Centre on the UNIFI campus on 25 October 2004 (the first Italy-China international conference was held in Guangdong in December 2002). Co-ordinated by Profs Guido Ferrari of UNIFI and Yanyun Zhao of RUC and with the collaboration of Prof Tran Van Hoa (University of Wollongong, Australia), the conference had the participation of more than 20 academics and experts  from major cities in Italy, four major provinces in China and high-ranking universities in Australia. The topics of discussion are wide-ranging (16 papers were presented) and cover both theoretical and empirical aspects of: ASEAN+3 free trade agreement and its impact on Asia-EU trade, growth and economic relations; computable regional equilibrium modelling; R&D, technology innovation, competitiveness, technology efficieny and optimal expenditure size on national, regional and sectoral growth in China; administrative data organization, teaching supply analysis and university education evaluation in Italy; use of equivalence scales in separated (divorced)  family child support; and firm size distribution in a socialist market economy (such as China and Vietnam).

The conference was also a major event from a bilateral (Italy-China) perspective that was organised to help, through the efforts of EU and Asia economic and statistical academics and experts, to strengthen the broader Asia-EU link and collaboration scheme vigorously supported by the European Commission and the Government of China and institutions in Asia and Oceania. UNIFI, RUC and the National Economics University in Vietnam are currently involved in a major EC- AsiaLink project proposal to support and promote further this scheme for mutual benefits academically and economically within the context of ASEM long-term objectives.

 In the photo below taken at the opening of the conference are, from left to right,  Prof Sandro Viviani (UNIFI), Dr Lorella Palla (Head, UNIFI International Relations Office), Mr Li Runfu (Consul General of China in Florence), Prof Guido Ferrari (UNIFI), Prof Tran Van Hoa (UOW) and Prof Yanyun Zhao (RUC).
 

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In the photo below taken on the terrace at the Pitti Palace Hotel for the Conference Farewell Dinner, hosted by Mr Paolo del Bianco, President of the Fondazione Romualdo del Bianco of Florence (a non-profit agency with international social mission objectives), are, from left to right, Prof Guido Ferrari, Mr Paolo del Bianco, Prof Tran Van Hoa and Prof Yanyun Zhao.
 
 

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4th Asia-Pacific Economic Forum International Conference
Asian and Global Economies:
Issues of Competitiveness and Growth
5-7 September 2004
Renmin University of China, Beijing

The Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) held, with the financial support of China Department of Education, its 4th International Conference at the Renmin (People) University of China in Beijing during 5-7 September 2004. The local organiser was Prof Yanyun Zhao, Head of the Department of Statisitics at RUC and 2004 APEF President.

Founded in 2001 at the Kangwon National University, Chunchon, Korea, the APEF which is a new economics society has a wide-ranging high-level membership from a global academic and government expert community consisting of major countries in Asia (eg, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam), the European Union (France, Italy), the Middle East (Iran), North America (the US and Canada) and Oceania (Australia and New Zealand). The focus of interest, research and dissemination of substantive findings of the APEF is economic development and growth, trade and investment, competitiveness, free trade agreements, international economic integration and relations, and new Asian regionalism.

Participants at the APEF 4 Conference include  academics, government and Asian Development Bank economists and other experts from  the powerful East Asia 3 group,  Australia, Taiwan, and Iran. Topics presented and discussed at the Conference cover competitiveness and trade and investment in East Asia, China's long-term growth, Asian Development Bank and other ODA assistance, regional monetary policy reform, and current issues of development in the North-East, West and South-West and Pearl River Regions in China. The Conference organisers are planning to publish the presented papers in a book for wider dissemination.

In the group photo below taken in the Run Run Shaw Room at the Yi Fu Conference Centre at Renmin University of China are, from left and from 7th to 13th places, Prof Fukunari Kimura (Keio University, Japan), Prof Chung Mo Koo (KNU), the Conference Organiser, Prof Yanyun Zhao (RUC), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Guirong Li (RUC), Prof Hyun Hoon Lee (KNU), Prof Chen Min Hsu (Taiwan National University), and some of the participants.
 

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Globalisation Gains and Losses:
Lord Meghnad Desai

University of Wollongong, 23 August 2004

Prof Meghnad Desai of the London School of Economics and a life peer of St Clement Danes (in London in the vicinity of the LSE) and a member of England's House of Lords visited Wollongong University recently to give a seminar on New Anti-Capitalist Movement, Civil Society and Global Finance. Born in Baroda, India, and obtained a Ph D in economics from the University of Pennsylvania in the US in 1964, Prof Lord Desai who was a strong activist in the British academia in the late 1960s, has been a staff-member of the LSE since the early 1970s, and Founding Director, Centre for the Study of Global Governance also at the LSE since 1992. A strong advocate of globalisation which, he maintains, would do the developing world especially in Asia a great deal of good even though in the initial stages, economic pains and social upheavals may have to be endured by the people of that world. A good colleague of Tran Van Hoa over three decades (see 2000 Activity below at the LSE - with Ann Petitfor, Director Jubilee 2000, and Lord Desai), Lord Desai also expresses to have a closer interest in major transition Asian economies such as Vietnam and China whose political regimes had attracted his research and writing (including Marx's Revenge: the Resurgence of Capitalism and the Death of Statist Socialism (Verso, 2002) over the past 30 years and whose growing eocnomic and trade rivalry with another (South) Asian giant, India, is the current focus of many policy-makers in the region.

In the photo below taken in the Faculty of Arts at the University of Wollongong during his visit are, from left to right, Prof Leone Lyons, Deputy Diretor of CAPSTRANS, Prof Lord Meghnad Desai and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
 

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Korea and the World Economy in 2004

3-4 July 2004, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Korea
 

Early in July 2004, Tran Van Hoa attended the third conference in the conference series Korea and the World Economy,taking place on 3-4 July 2004 at Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Korea,to deliver a paper on Korea's Trade,Growth of Trade and the World Economies in Post-crisis ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement. He also acted as a discussant in a Plenary Session Economic Cooperation in North-East Asia organsied by the Bank of Korea. The Conference was organised by the Association of the Korean Economic Studies (AKES), Korea Development Institute and the Research Center for International Economics (RCIE) at the University of Washington, USA. More than 40 economists from China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, the US, Canada, Belgium, Italy, Turkey, Russia, India and Australia participated in the Conference. Topics of interest and discussion cover prominently the Korean economy at the crossroads, East and North East Asia economic integration, trade liberalisation, and industrial competitiveness.

In the photo below taken in the 600 Anniversary Memorial Hall at Sungkyunkwan University at the end of the Conference are, from left to right, Prof H H Lee (Kangwon National University, Korea),  Prof Charles Harvie (Director, Hunter Valley Research Foundation, Australia), Prof Chung Mo Koo (Kangwon National University), Prof Jong Won Lee (President, AKES), Prof Tran Van Hoa (Australia), and Prof Karyiu Wong (RCIE, USA).
 

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Contemporary Modelling Economic and Financial Policy:
A European Union Perspective
30 June-2 July 2004, Universite de Paris I, Pantheon-Sorbonne
 

Tran Van Hoa participated in the EcoMod 2004 International Conference on Policy Modelling that took place on 30 June-2 July 2004 at France's prestigious university, Pantheon-Sorbonne, Universite de Paris I, to present his current modelling policy research work on the Impact of the ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement on Asia-Europe Trade and Economic Relations: A New Modelling Approach. The Conference was organised by the EcoMod Network and sponsored by France's Prime Minister Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII), Universite de Paris I, Pantheon-Sorbonne, and Hendyplan. While at the Conference, Tran Van Hoa also chaired aSession on Trade Issues.

The keynote addresses and papers delivered at the Conference represent some of the state-of-the-art research and commissioned  activities by economic and financial experts on major issues, aspects and policy modelling methodologial advances in trade, growth, monetary policy, labour, competition and economic relations in  the EU and in other countries that have relations with the EU. Attending the Conference were over 200 academics, businesspeople, government officials and advisers, and delegates from the European Commission, the European Central Bank, the US International Trade Commission, and coming from the countries in  the EU, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Oceania, and the UK, the US, and Russia.

In the photo below taken in the Sorbonne Foyer on the opening day at the Conference are, from left to right, Lionel Fontaigne (Director, CEPII, Professor, Universite de Paris I, and EcoMod 2004 Program Committee Member), Beatrice Poster ( Executive Administrative, CEPII), and Tran Van Hoa.
 
 

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WTO, China and Other Asian Economies:
Major Regional Issues

Renmin University of China, Beijing, 18-19 June 2004
 

An Interntional Conference was recently jointly organised by the Research Center for International Economics (Director: Prof Karyiu Wong) at Washington University (Seattle, USA), East-West Center (Hawaii, USA), and the Business School, Renmin University of China, with a focus on the theme The WTO, China and  the Asian Economies II. The Conference took place at the Yi Fu Conference Center on RUC campus  during 18-19 June 2004 with the participation of over 60  experts from China, the US, the  European Union, Australia and several other universities and institutitions in Asia.  At the Conference, Tran Van Hoa, representing Australia,  presented a paper on Asian Free Trade Agreements and their Impact on China's Trade and New Economic Relations and discussed  a paper on  China's WTO Entry and  its Consequences for India's Trade.

Since its WTO membership in 2001, China has gone on to be one of the world's main economic powers with growing trade and political influence beyond the Asian region. It is even poised to take over Japan soon in terms of the growth of its GDP. While China has achieved admirable successes in growth, trade and economic relations, it has also become an object of rivalry with its East Asia neighbours and an object of fear from its giant global trade competitors such as the South Asia newcomer, India. At the Conference, this issue and other important aspects of China's growing trade and economic power were discussed and widely disseminated in the national mass media.  The third international conference on the same theme is being planned for 2005, and the conference host is Xian Giaotong University in West China.

In the photo below, taken at the RUC Yi Fu Conference Center, are, from left to right, Prof Feng Zongxian (Xian Giaotong University and Organiser for 2005 WTO and China III Conference), Prof Karyiu Wong (Director, RCIE, University of Washington, USA) and Prof Tran Van Hoa (Director, Vietnam Focus and ASEAN+3 Research Program, Wollongong University, Australia)
 
 

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In the group photo taken in front of the RUC Yi Fu Conference Center at the end of the Conference on WTO, China and the Asian Economies, are Tran Van Hoa (13th place, standing) and some local and international participants.
 

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ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement
and Its Impact on Australia-China Trade:
Who Gains and Who Loses?

Renmin University of China, Beijing, 17 June 2004
 

With the slow progress of the WTO negotiations (due chiefly to several yet unresolvable issues on trade protection and subsidies by WTO members) and the still non-WTO membership of many LDCs, the proliferation of regional free trade agreeements (FTAs) and closer economic relations (CER) especially in Asia in order to liberalise trade and promote growth is being vigorously supported by governments and the development is amply justified. One of these important recent FTAs is the ASEAN+3 (10 ASEAN countries plus China, Japan and Korea). The implications of this ASEAN+3 FTA on such trading countries in the region as Australia and China are far-reaching, in our view, for their national interests.  An important project, carried out by Wollongong University (Prof Tran Van Hoa) and the Renmin University of China in Beijing (Prof Yanyun Zhao), is supported during 2004 byAustralia's Department of  Education, Science and Training (DEST) in its program China Higher Education Strategic Initiatives (CHESI) to investigate ASEAN+3 and Australia-China major economic and trade issues for discussion, debates and possible policy input by experts and policy-makers in both countries.

The first workshop to report on the project's research findings by UOW and RUC economic and trade experts was organised by Prof Zhao at the China Centre for Applied Statistics Research on the RUC campus on 17 June 2004 where Tran Van Hoa and other Chinese experts presented and discussed their progress work. Participants in the workshop also included postgraduate students, postdoctoral fellows and academics from the RUC and other Chinese universities.

In the photo below, taken at the end of the workshop in the School of Statistics, RUC, are some participants including, from left to right, Prof Guirong Li (School of FInance, RUC, 6th place), Prof Yanyun Zhao (RUC, 8th place), and Prof Tran Van Hoa (9th place).
 
 

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GLOBALISATION: DEFINITION AND FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES

May 2004

Globalisation is perhaps one of the most frequently quoted words or reverently cited concepts in all areas of contemporary hard, soft or metaphysical sciences (eg, engineering, economics, humanities, politics, business, management, governance, religion, sociology, philosophy, to name a few), but it remains the most misunderstood or mis-interpreted at all levels, layman or expert, of enquiry. Every one of the 2822 acdemic papers and 589 books published in 1998 alone for example has its own definition (see www.globalisationguide.org/01.html). A quick browse of current writings or debates on globalisation will however reveal that most publications and discussions focus essentially on what globalisation does or generates rather than on what it truly is.

Globalisation occurs (or is) when human activities (physical and non-physical), originated from one state, move to other dependent (satellite) or independent (sovereign) states. These activities may be in one of the areas mentioned above. A cause of this movement is the superiority (or comparative advantages, competitiveness, or novelty) of the tools (goods), the ideas (services), finance (capital availability) or the armed forces of a state. The outcome of this globalisation can be either better (unification of warring states, improved trade and living standards, broadened enlightenment or closer economic relations), or for worse [destruction of a state (forced and invited occupation), its infrastructure, activities, resources (deforestation, environment degradation, or terrorist attacks) or its culture (religion, family, custom or ages-old traditions)].

With this definition, globalisation could be regarded as being existent with the first human cross-continetal migration of the world, followed or manisfested further by the occupation or expansion or the international trade of the desert kingdoms in the Middle East (the cradle of civilisation), the rise and fall of the Greek and Roman empires, the global spread of Christianity, Buddism or Islam or more recent diverse religions, the establishment of the Silk Road, the conquests of the Gengis Khan families, the adventures of Marco Polo, the colonial empires of major European countries in America, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, the continental or world wars of the past, the feared hegemonism of communism after the Second World War and socialism, the setting-up of the League of Nations, the United Nations, the GATT and GATS, the WTO, and the increasing reach and influence of capitalism and its coporates. The current promotion of globalisation by its advocates is usually based on the utilisation of international competitiveness or an advancement of closer economic relations. The anti-globalisation supporters, while grudgingly admitting the process of globalisation, emphasise on the other hand the lack of equity or fairness (who gains most and who loses most) or the social concerns of globalisation. Like all other things in life, an equilibrium (or balance) of gains (output growth, improved living standard, welfare and security) and losses (rights and wrongs, suitability and unsuitablity, transgenerational negatives and pluses) of globalisation (or all other human activities or decisions) must be considered and achieved for optimal outcomes and less wasteful confrontations for all stakeholders. Curiously, efficiency and equity are the two main concerns of  mainstream economics and the real base for research, policy advice and public debates by respectable economists. See also Tran Van Hoa and C Harvie (eds) New Asian Regionalism: Responses to Globalisation and Crises, London: Palgrave/Macmillan, 2003, cover in Item 9 February 2004 below. 
 

ACADEMIC WRITERS AND INTERNATIONAL PUBLISHERS:
IMPORTANT LINK

2 March 2004

A strong linkage between the 'research and write' academics and reputable international publishers is crucial for an efficient public-benefits dissemination worldwide of new knowledge and findings of both a basic and applied/policy kind in all scientific endeavours. To maintain this linkage, Edward and Sandy Elgar of Edward Elgar Publishers in the UK have regularly visited the authors and editors of EE books around the world to discuss and monitor trends and development of new research and ideas in the writing academic community. More than five staff members in the Economics Department at Wollongong University are authors and editors of numerous EE books in the past few years. In March 2004,  while Edward and Sandy were unable to visit the  University of Wollongong, their eldest daughter,Catherine Elgar, was able to visit the campus for the first time to maintain her publishing family's long-established tradition.

In the photo below taken in the Department of Economics during Catherine's hectic visit and meetings with academics at the University of Wollognong are  (from left)  Prof Ann Hodgkinson (Head of the School of Economics and Information Systems), Catherine Elgar (Edward Elgar, UK) and Prof Tran Van Hoa (who, in addition to other books published with Macmillan, UK,  has published  five books with EE in the past four years).
 
 

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AUSTRALIA-VIETNAM DIPLOMATIC, ECONOMIC AND TRADE RELATIONS: 30 YEARS OF BRIDGING DIVIDES

14 February 2004, Stamford Plaza Hotel, Sydney

On the Valentine Day 2004, the Director of the ASEAN and Vietnam Focus Research Program at the University of Wollongong (Prof Tran Van Hoa) attended an official function at the Stamford Plaza Hotel, Double Bay, organised by the Vietnam Consul General in New South Wales (Mr Nguyen Van Tho) to honour the visit by Vietnam's new Foreign Minister, H E Nguyen Di Nien, to Sydney. The visit by Mr Nien (and his wife, Mrs Dung) was significant since he was one of Vietnam's first officials visiting Australia in as early as 1973 to establish official relations between the two countries. Over the 30 years or so since, these bilateral relations have expanded considerably in all aspects: diplomatic, cultural, aid, health, agriculture, economic and trade (to $2.8 billion in 2002) to name a few, bringing in a better mutual understanding and cooperation.  As the new head of Vietnam's foreign affairs, Mr Nien also is anxious to promote and expand these relations in the years to come not only with assistance from the government, NGOs, transnational corporations and individual investors from Australia but also from the 200,000 plus Vietnamese Australians whose affinity with Vietnam is still emotionally strong, whose intellectual and commercial successes in their adopted country are high (as is the case with Vietnamese Americans in the US), and whose experience of and exposure to the two diverse East and West cultures can bring good relations and outcomes.

At the function, it was also expressed that, with these expanding relations and its abundance of natural, physical and human resources, its dedication at all society levels to improve the economic and social conditions, and its recent economic achievements even during the devastating Asia crisis of 1997-2002 and the 2003 SARS and 2004 avian flu outbreaks, Vietnam will surely stand proud of its future economic development and social  progress and its high standing in the regional and international community.

In the photo below taken at the Stamford Plaza Hotel function welcoming Vietnam Foreign Minister, are (from left), the Hon. Nguyen Van Tho (Vietnam Consul General in Sydney), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Mrs Dung, H E Nguyen Di Nien (Vietnam Foreign Minister), Mrs Tran Thi Lai (Vina World Travel) and H E Le Xuan Lieu, Vietnam Ambassador to Australia.

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WHAT DO ASIAN ECONOMIES HAVE TO DO
WHEN FACING
REGIONAL CRISES AND RELENTLESS GLOBALISATION?

9 February 2004

Crises seem to beset most of us at all levels: personal, community, national, global and transgenerational. The once 'high growth miracle' economies of the East and South East Asia are not an exception to this seemingly universal rule notably in recent years. What caused the damaging economic and financial crises or meltdown in these Asian economies in the late 1990s and early 2000s? How the crisis economies have responded to these crises? Have their adopted or imposed-on rescue policies been effective in alleviating the local and national problems arising from the crises and in promoting quick recovery and growth? And what are available options they have to develop and take to avoid or deal with possible future turmoils of similar magnitude? These are some of the issues and questions economists in major Asian countries have been searching answers and solutions for in recent times.

A new and timely book New Asian Regionalism: Responses to Globalisation and Crises [edited by Tran Van Hoa and Charles Harvie, Palgrave-Macmillan, 2003 (see below)], is a collection of important studies by a select group of Asian and Oceanian economists exploring and analysing the strong emergence of Asian regionalisms and economic integration in the region in recent times to deal with the aftermath of the recent crises, the relentless marching of globalisation, and the increasing emphasis on and penetration of international competitiveness in all economies, developed and developing. A product of an international conference organised by the executives of the newly formed APEF (Asia Pacific Economic Forum) at the University of Wollongong (Australia) in 2002, the book provides a wealth of information and ideas on the development of this new Asian regionalism and how it can be used by economic policy makers and shakers to steer Asian crisis economies towards quick recovery, strong growth and more social and political stability, and increasing living standards for all peoples in the region in the near future.

 

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ASIA CRISIS AND RECOVERY AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS

FOR ASIA'S FUTURE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT

Kangwon National University, Chunchon, Korea
8-10 December 2003
 

Impact and long-term implications as well as emerging challenges and opportunities of  Asia's past and current crises and recoveries were the themes of  the Asia Crisis V International Conference taking place on campus at the Kangwon National University  (KNU) in Chunchon, Korea, during 8-10 December 2003. The  Conference was jointly organised and sponsored by the KNU (Institute of Industrial Research), the University of Washington in Seattle (USA) (Research Center on International Economics), the University of Tokyo (Japan) (Center of International Research on the Japanese Economy), the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) in Seoul, and the Taiwan National University (Faculty of Economics). Attending the Conference were academics, bankers, business people, government officials, senior executives and students from  top corporations and  major institutions and universities in Korea, North East and South East Asia, and Oceania. Representing Australia was Prof Tran Van Hoa who also delivered a paper on ASEAN+3 free trade agreement and post-crisis challenges and prospects for trade and economic policy between the 10 ASEAN economies and the East Asia 3 (China, Japan and Korea) in the medium and long terms. He also chaired a conference session on Predicting and Preventing Crises. The concept of setting up an Asia Pacific Economic Association was  raised at the Conference. The next Asia Crisis conference is scheduled to take place in September 2004 at the University of Tokyo, Japan. The Crisis V conference organisers are also planning to publish the conference proceedings in a book for a wider dissemination of the discussions and findings at the Conference.

In the photo below taken on campus (Faculty of Arts Building) at the Kangwon National University on the opening day of the Conference were (from left) Prof Chung Mo Koo (Local Conference Organiser), Ms Kopea (KNU Postgraduate Student, background), Prof Kar Yiu Wong (Conference Organiser, University of Washington), Prof  Dr Yong Soo Park (President of KNU)
and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
 
 

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AUSTRALIA AND VIETNAM'S
ECONOMIC AND TRADE DEVELOPMENT

Hanoi, 4-8 December 2003

During the first week of the 22nd SEA (South East Asia) Games taking place in Hanoi (30 November-14 December 2003), Tran Van Hoa held discussions with  senior officials of Vietnam's Ministry of Trade (MOT) on current  and planned work between MOT and the Vietnam Focus Research Program (Director: Tran Van Hoa) at the University of Wollogong. Work for the triennial 2004-2006 includes a number of training workshops for Vietnam government officials on Research and Investment Evaluation at NATI (MOT National Advanced Training Institute) and a research project proposal ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and its impact on Australia-Vietnam trade at Vietnam Institute for Trade (VIT). Dicussions were also carried out on potential collaborative work between NATI and VIT and VFOC on targeted areas of interest in the $10 million ODA (Official Development Assistance) program on Capacity Building for Effective Governance recently signed by the Australian and Vietnamese Governments to assist Vietnam in its current development process.

In the photo below taken at the VIT headquarter, 46 Ngo Quyen Street in Hanoi, are Prof Dr Dinh Van Thanh, Deputy Director General of VIT, and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
 

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AUSTRALIA-THAILAND FREE TRADE AGREEMENT: INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATIVE WORK

Bangkok, 1-3 December 2003

Prof Tran Van Hoa recently visited Thailand's prestigious university, Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, to develop international collaborative link and work between it and the University of Wollongong (Australia) on aspects and issues including obstacles and opportunities of the Australia-Thailand free trade agreement (ATFTA) and closer economic relations signed by the Prime Ministers of Australia and Thailand during the APEC Leaders Meeting in Bangkok in November 2003. Representing Chulalongkorn University and being a chief investigator in the proposed collaborative work was Prof Suthipand Chirathivat, Dean of the Faculty of Economics, who is Thailand's foremost authority on ASEAN, APEC and ASEM issues.

Informally attending the ATFTA discussion and working lunch between Profs Tran Van Hoa (UOW) and Suthipand Chirathivat (Chula) was their colleague, H. E. Dr Kitti Limskul, Thailand's Vice Minister of Finance, who was a professor (on leave) at Chulalobngkorn University and one of the 23 founding members of the ruling party, Thai Ruk Thai, in Thailand. Prof Tran Van Hoa later visited Dr Kitti's office at the Ministry of Finance to discuss further issues related to major economies in the Asian region in general and to the ATFTA in particular. He also visited  his networked colleagues at Thammasat University to explore joint research and training opportunities between the Vietnam Focus Research Program at the University of Wollongong and the Faculty of Economics at Thammasat University for several  modules of the Greater Mekong Project (GMP) being funded by the Thai Government to Vietnam to assist Vietnam's current economic development programs.
 

In the photo below taken on campus at Chulalongkorn University are (from left) Prof Suthipand Chirathivat (Dean of Economics, Chulalongkorn University) and Prof Tran Van Hoa, and Thailand Vice Minister of Finance, H. E.  Dr Kitti Limskul.
 
 

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Also in the photo below taken on campus at Thammasat University are
Prof Tran Van Hoa (left) and Prof Pranee Nitakorn, Dean, Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University.

 

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New Asian Regionalism in Japan
18-19 September 2003, Keio University, Tokyo

Major important issues and problems of one of Asia's hottest developments at the highest level of government, namely new Asian regionalism and its upshoots, free trade agreements, economic integration and closer relations, were discussed at the 3rd Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) International Conference (The Conference Theme: New East Asian Regionalism: Perspectives from Individual Countries) at Japan's prestigious private university in Tokyo last week. The APEF was inaugurated at Kangwon National University in Korea in 2001 and its Foundation President-Elect was Tran Van Hoa who held the 2nd APEF International Conference at Wollongong University, Australia, in 2002, with assistance from the Australian Government AusAID agency. The APEF 3 conference was organised by Prof Fukunari Kimura, 2003 APEF President-Elect, and hosted by Keio University and with support from the Japanese Government, and took place at Mita Campus. Attending the Conference to give a keynote address was Prof Young-Ho Kim, President of Yuhan University, Korea, and Korea's former Minister for Commerce, who was responsible for vigorously promoting the new Asian regionalism, ASEAN+3, while in office.

At the conference, eminent participants and paper authors from eight major countries in East Asia (China, Japan, Korea), South-East Asia (Thailand) and West Asia (Iran), Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) and the US presented and discussed their new applied and analytical research findings of immense importance to not only their own countries but also to regional and global economies including the major trading blocs in the world. The topics include new Asian regionalism and its regional and global impact and costs-benefits, economic development and growth, trade, investment, East Asia energy cooperation, regional production and distribution network, monetary cooperation, development of a North-East Asian Development Bank, and economic integration policy. At the Conference, Prof Yanyun Zhao of the Renmin University of China in Beijing was elected 2004 APEF President and, under his chairmanship, the 4th APEF International Conference will take place at Renmin University early in July 2004. Proceedings of the APEF 3 Conference are to be published in a book.
 

In the photo taken at the APEF 3 Reception hosted by Keio University on Art Hills in Central Tokyo are (from left to right) Lika Tanaka and Satoko Fukaya (Keio Postgraduate Students), Prof Eiji Ogawa (Hitotsubashi University), Prof Chan-Hyun Sohn (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy), Yuya Takahashi (Keio Postgraduate Student), Prof Hiro Lee (ICSEAD, Japan), Prof Yanyun Zhao (Renmin University of China, Beijing), Profs Huyn-Hoon Lee and Chung-Mo Koo (Kangwon National University, Korea), Mitsuyo Ando (Research Associate, Keio University), Dr Komail Tayyebi (University of Isfahan, Iran), Prof Fukunari Kimura (Keio University), Sonya (Lawyer and Australia's Greens Party Candidate), Prof Robert Scollay (University of Auckland, New Zealand), Prof Charles Harvie (Hunter Valley Research Foundation, Australia), and Prof Kentaro Kawasaki (Toyo University, Japan).
 

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In the photo below taken at the main building at Keio University, Mita Campus, are (from left to right) Prof Suthipand Chirathivat (Dean, Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand), Prof Zongming Tang (Shanghai Jiaotong University, China), Lika Tanaka, Prof Chung-Mo Koo, and Prof Robert Scollay (PECC Member).
 

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In the photo below also taken at Keio University, Mita Campus, are Profs Suthipand Chirathivat and Tran Van Hoa (2002 APEF Foundation President-Elect).
 
 

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In the photo below taken at the Faculty Club at Keio University Mita Campus are (from left to right) Prof Yanyun Zhao (Dean, Faculty of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing), Prof Suthipand Chirathivat, Prof Fukunari Kimura (Faculty of Economics, Keio University), and Prof Chung-Mo Koo.
 

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THE BBC, THE WTO, THE 2003 CANCUN AGENDA
AND ECONOMIC AND TRADE PROSPECTS
FOR VIETNAM AND OTHER ASIAN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

(Summary of a BBC Interview with Tran Van Hoa
on 11 September 2003)
 

The 146-member WTO Ministerial Meeting this week in Cancun, Mexico, has to deal not only with anti-globalisation protesters but also a number of difficult post-Doha problems faced by current WTO members and affecting aspiring WTO members especially those in the agriculturally-based Asian region. To some analysts, the only Doha goal achieved since 2001 is cheaper medicines to LDCs. Other Doha agenda items have not made any signnificant progress due to strong protectionist lobbies from some of the world's most powerful and economically developed groups. Australia's Trade Minister, Mark Vaile, after chairing the Cairns Group also in Cancun claimed that the international community faces a moment of choice in Cancun 'We can stick with the (fair share) injustices and (trade) distortions of the past or we can embrace a new pathway of fundamental reform to create fair and competitive agricultural commerce across the world'. The emergence in the WTO of a new bloc of LDCs, the G21, would, together with the Cairns Group, strengthen the advocacy for global farm trade reform.

All this seems to mean that the LDC members (especially those in the mainly agricultural-exports regions) in the WTO may not gain substantial and quick trade and economic benefits from their WTO memberships. A logical consequence is that Vietnam, an aspiring WTO member, may see only a slow and small gain from its WTO membership to be approved in the next two years or so. In a study of the impact of China's WTO membership on its economy delivered at the Shanghai Giaotong University a few months ago, we pointed out that, using a new impact-study method, far superior to the WTO standard tool of GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) in coverage (focusing on both goods and services) and in real-life data-consistency, expansion in China's economic growth as a result of its WTO membership may not materialise until some years after its accession. A WTO membership will however benefit LDC countries in Asia like Vietnam in other aspects of a modern economic life: restructuring of the economy for more efficiency in production and distribution (even some SOEs or monopolistic businesses have to reform) though perhaps not in consumption, better adjustment to the WTO requirements and the international community's development and progress, better ability to deal with increasing globalisation and interntional competitiveness, and global economic integration. While the progress of the WTO negotiations has been slow and sometimes agonising over the years and its improvement appears uncertain, the emergence of regional or plurilateral free trade agreements such as the ASEAN+3 (that is, the 10 ASEAN and China, Japan and Korea) or its subset ASEAN+China (endorsed in 2001) and other bilateral FTAs and economic integration may be good alternatives for LDCs such as Vietnam to focus on in their development process.
 

COMPETITION POLICY AND LAW AND THEIR FUTURE
IN AUSTRALIA AND ASIA
10 September 2003

Prof Allan Fels, former Chairman of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and current Dean, Australia and New Zealand School of Government, University of Melbourne, recently visited Wollongong University to deliver the First Economics Public Lecture on Competition Policy and its Future. An ardent advocate for the consumer's interest and corporate fair trading and with strong bipartisan support from the Liberal Party and the Australian Labor Party and Australian state governments, Prof Fels had presided over the feared Australian corporate watchdog over a decade and has gained a national and  international reputation for robustly applying Australia's Trade Practices Act without fear or favour.

In the photo below at a Commerce Faculty reception for Prof Allan Fels are (from left to right) Profs Allan Fels, Tran Van Hoa (Allan's colleague and friend over 35 years from their days at the University of Western Australia and Monash University) and John Glynn (Dean, Faculty of Commerce, University of Wollongong).
 

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Highly relevant to the First Economics Public Lecture's theme above but with a focus and emphasis on Asia's economic development and competitiveness is the publication by Edward Elgar in the UK and US, of a new book by Tran Van Hoa with the title Competition Policy and Global Competitiveness in Major Asian Economies (see photo and review below). The book is the product of an APEC training project funded by the Australian Government AusAID Agency and Wollongong International Business Research Institute (IBRI). Its contents are at the level of the UNCTAD, WTO, APEC and ASEAN and deal with the foundation of competition theory and new developments and implementation of competition policy and law in major economies in East Asia, South East Asia and Oceania. Importantly, a number of chapters of the book provides experiences and lessons in competition policy and law from developed countries (such as Australia) that have practiced them for reference or use and also discusses pitfalls to avoid by developing countries that are adopting and developing this policy and law.
 

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ENHANCING ASIA-EUROPEAN UNION (ASEM) NETWORK
AND RESEARCH COLLABORATION

June 2003

Serious work on enhancing ASEM network and research collaboration has been recently initiated by Prof Tran Van Hoa during his visits to several prestigious research institutes and universities in the European Union during June 2003. The purpose of the visits was to communicate his recent research findings on ASEAN free trade agreement and new Asian regionalism and to start cooperation or to strengthen the existing network and association with EU academics and researchers who have been working, either individually or on commission from the European Commission, on important aspects and major issues in Asia-EU trade, investment and international economic relations.

The visited institutes include the Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) and the Institute of Statistics at the Universite Catholique de Louvain in Belgium and the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives and d'Informations Internationales (CEPII) of the Prime Minister's Department in France. The university includes the University of Florence in Italy. A number of joint research proposals between the ASEAN+3 Research Program (Director: Tran Van Hoa) at the University of Wollongong, Australia, and the Renmin University of China and with the collaboration of CORE, CEPII and the University of Florence have also been put forward by Tran Van Hoa for institutional consideration and government funding support. Notable in the list of proposals are the Impact of the ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement on Asia-EU Trade in general and with the Asia 3 (China, Japan and Korea) in particular.

In the photo below are Prof Guido Ferrari (left), Department of Statistics, University of Florence, and an economic consultant to the European Commission (Brussels) and Professor Tran Van Hoa.
 

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Vietnam-Australia Friendship Association Meeting Vietnam Experts
at the University of Melbourne

22 May 2003

The Chairman of the Vietnam Australian Friendship Association (a society of government officials, business people and Vietnamese alumni from Australia), Dr Luong Van Ly, recently visited the Melbourhne Institute for Asian Languages and Societies (MIALS) at the Sidney Myer Asia Centre at the University of Melbourne to meet with experts on Vietnam to discuss high-education collaboration and joint-venture opportunities in Southern Vietnam for Australian universities. The visit is part of the program organised by the Thailand, Vietnam ad Laos Section of Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). Dr Ly who also is Deputy Director of the Department of Planning and Investment of the People's Committee of Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon) in Vietnam led a 25-member government and business delegation to Sydney and Melbourne with the aim of promoting further investment by Australia in Ho Chi Minh City and to reinforce Southern Vietnam's strong position for joint-ventures and as a good source of  full-fees paying international students (currently numbering 4000) to Australia's leading educational institutions.

Present for discussion at the meeting at MIALS were Prof Tran Van Hoa (representing the Vietnam and ASEAN+3 Research Program of the University of Wollongong and currently Visiting Professor to the University of Melbourne) and other senior academics and researchers representing several Melbourne University departments with interest or work in Vietnam. These include economics, management, medicine, art, education, psychology, agriculture, forestry, law, film, biotechnology, nursing, public health, anthropology, and engineering.

In the photo taken at MIALS Meeting Room No. 1 below are, from left to right, Ms Ngan Collins (Ph D student in Management), Dr Di Bretherton (Psychology-Trauma), Dr Jane Fisher (Post Natal Depression), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Dr Luong Van Ly, Dr Adam Fforde (Principal Fellow, MIALS), Dr Pip Nicholson (Asian Law Centre), Dr Maureen Welch (Asian Education Foundation), Dr Jennifer Holmgren (DFAT Executive Desk Officer), and Angela Kerry (Melbourne University).
 
 

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A THEORY AND PRACTICE TO DO BETTER FORECASTS
ANYTHING, ANYTIME AND ANYWHERE

by Tran Van Hoa

For millennia, it has been the ambition of mankind, for selfish or pecuniary or altruist or noble reasons, to see clearly or predict accurately things in the future, near or far. Sometimes, it can do so with a divining rod, by looking at the sky or mountains, by resorting to past occurrences, by using insider information, or by a forecasting tool known by statistical experts as a forecasting model. A forecasting model is simply a logical causal structure that stipulates that things happening now depend on things happening to them in the past, and things that will happen in the future depend on things happening to them before that. This forecasting model consists of the required but unknown forecast itself and its determinant factors (variables) and contributing strengths (parameters). The form of this forecasting model is usually not known by anyone but determined or chosen by the expert doing the forecasting. Given a forecasting model, its variables and parameters, a forecast into the future can then be made. The theory of forecasting used universally nowadays involves either that all variables and parameters are known (the neo-classical or CGE or AGE or WTO school) or that all variables are known but their parameters have to be estimated from real-life data for realism (the realist or Keynesian school) or a mixture of both. The estimation method used here is usually the ordinary least-squares (OLS) or maximimum-likelihood (ML) that provides best linear unbiased parameters when the model generating them is correctly formulated and contains no omitted variable or no measurement error-in-variables. The conditions are hardly met in all real-life situations and what we have been given in all forecasting studies of this kind are simply biased and highly inaccurate parameters and forecasts.

A new forecasting approach proposed by Tran Van Hoa provides better forecasts on the issues arising above. The approach states that, given any function in any form linking causally in anyway a forecast (of anything) to its determining variables, a linear forecasting (function-free) model can always be derived (Tran Van Hoa, 1992) and its parameters can always be obtained by a new estimation theory (the so-called two-stage hierarchical information (2SHI), also known as the improved Stein or empirical Bayes) that produce always more accurate or better in-average-squared-errors properties than all other existing estimation methods currently in use (see for example, Tran Van Hoa, 1985, Tran Van Hoa and Chaturvedi, 1997). Better forecasts can then be obtained from these better estimated parameters. Applications of the new approach have been carried out over the past 10 years or so in numerous scholarly and commissioned applied studies involving economics, business, energy demand, trade, investment and finance. Improved accuracy in forecasting in these studies range from 10 to 150 per cent, an enormous achievement that can make or break individual fortunes, expand or destroy giant businesses, discredit national and international organisations, and change governments. Some studies dealing with this new forecasting approach and applications are given in the publications below.
 

A.V. Jennings Industries in Vietnam

10 March 2003

A.V. Jennings Industries P/L, one of Australia's giant building and construction industries, was recently introduced to Vietnam by Prof Tran Van Hoa, Director, Vietnam Research Program, University of Wollongong. A.V.Jennings Industries, a pioneering company in the building and construction sector in Australia with numerous significant innovations to its credit over its past 78 years of operation (for example, the display homes concept (1930s), houses as homes, economies-of-scale and repetition process in construction, building plus trades, fixed fees for building contracts), was represented by its former Chairman and Managing Director, Vic Jennings, and his wife Margaret, who visited Vietnam for the first time with the purpose of fact-finding and sharing the company's experiences in buillding and construction with academics, experts and government officials in Vietnam. Vic gave two lectures on Australia's building innovations and their relevance to contemporary Vietnam's economic and industrial developments which will have a United Nations model-projected population of 150 million by 2050 and how to evaluate the impact and effectiveness of science-technology investment at a special workshop organised by the Rector (Dr Pham Quang Thao) of the National Advanced Training Institute (NATI) of Vienam Ministry of Trade in collaboration with Prof Tran Van Hoa. The workshop took place at NATI campus in Hanoi and was well attended by senior government officials and construction experts and executives who are responsible for the country's current extensive construction and building programs at all levels.

In the photo below taken at a luncheon reception at Phu Dong Restaurant in Central Hanoi in honour of  Vic and Margaret Jennings are (from left to right, standing) Margaret and Vic Jennings, (sitting) Mr Nguyen Chi (Senior Expert, Ministry of Trade),
Dr Pham Quang Thao (Rector, NATI), Dr Bui Huu Dao (Director General, Science Department, Ministry of Trade) and
Prof Tran Van Hoa.
 

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Festschrift in Honour of Prof Peter Lloyd
(of the Grubel-Lloyd Index fame)
University of Melbourne, Australia, 23-24 January 2003

Prof Tran Van Hoa recently joined close colleagues and international friends of Peter Lloyd to participate in a festschrift conference in the Faculty of Economics and Commerce at the University of Melbourne (on 23-24 January 2003) to celebrate Peter's long-standing and significant contribution to the theory of international trade, notably his collaborative work with Herbert Grubel (a Canadian economist then visiting the Australian National University) in formalising the so-called Grubel-Lloyd Index of Intra-industry Trade. Used extensively in the profession as the main indicator of regional trade flows, the index has been able to track more accurately the intensity of South East Asian countries' trade in recent years and to provide an explanation for this region's spectacular growth before the 1997 Asia crisis. Tran Van Hoa's recent collaborations with Peter include leading two Australian Government-funded workshops on Competition Policy in Vietnam and work with East Asian 3 economists on New Asian Regionalism. Prof Lloyd, former Ritchie Professor and Dean of Economics and Commerce at the University, is also a member of the Asia Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) - see below, a new East Asia-based economics society, whose 2002 President Elect was Tran Van Hoa.

In the photo below taken at the festschrift dinner hosted by the Department of Economics at the University of Melbourne House are (from left to right) Prof Peter Lloyd, Dr Lynn Williams, Prof Ross Williams (former Dean of Economics and Commerce at the University) and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
 

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In the second photo taken at a festschrift farewell cocktail function at Prof Lloyd's residence are
(from left to right) Tran Van Hoa, Emeritus Prof Max Corden and Prof Herbert Grubel.
 

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The Melbourne Institute's 40th Anniversary (1962-2002)
University of Melbourne
12 December 2002 and 7 February 2003
 

Tran Van Hoa recently attended two 40th Anniversary Functions (12 December 2002 at the University House, and 7 February 2003 at Ormond College, College Crescent, Parkville) of the Melbourne Institute (also known as the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research) at the University of Melbourne. Founded in January 1963 by Prof Ronald Henderson shortly after his arrival from Scotland and supported first by Prof Richard Downing (former Chairman of the Australian Broadcasting Commission) and Dr Duncan Ironmonger, Deputy Director (1972-1986) and Acting Director (1979-1984), and subsequently a succession of Directors and Acting Directors in the past 18 years, the Institute has become an icon and think-tank of the economics profession in Australia with particular focus on national economic and social issues. Notable achievements by the Institute in its early years include the founding of the Australian Economic Reviewby Duncan Ironmonger in 1968 and the pioneering work by Ronald Henderson on poverty (resulting in the famousHenderson Poverty Line) in Australia. Sometimes challenged by some recent economists in Australia, the Henderson Poverty Line (even with its then New York basket of goods as the basic commodity weights) still stands as the reference standard in poverty measurements by serious welfare economists in the country. Tran Van Hoa was a Senior Research Fellow (1981-1986) at the Institute and sometime Acting Director. While at the Institute, he introduced Stanford University econometric software package TSP to the Institute's Long-term IMP Modelling Section (headed by Dr Peter Brain) to replace Adrian Pagan's computer programs in use then. Before that in 1972, as a consultant to the Institute, he built Australia's first multi-sectoral econometric model (of the demand for telephone services). This novel modelling work was funded by the then Australia Postmaster General Department.
 

Attending the anniversary functions were Australia's economic elite in the academic, government and corporate sectors and the Institute's former and current staff.
In the photo below taken at the 40th Anniversary Function at the University House on campus are (from left to right)  Prof Tran Van Hoa, Ms Diana Warren (a Research Fellow at the Institute and former student of Tran Van Hoa and Dr David Johnson, Deputy/Acting Director of the Melbourne Institute.
 
 

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WTO, China and the Asian Economies:
Opportunitites, Challenges and Prospects

An international conference organised by
the Asian Development Bank, the University of Hong Kong and the University of Washington
Hong Kong 9-10 November 2002

Since its accession to the WTO in 2001, China has opened its doors wider to opportunitites and also challenges not only for its more than 1,300 million people but also for its neighbours in the Asian region and beyond. The conference, taking place on the hilly campus of the prestigious University of Hong Kong, was focused on these issues and their implications, and attended by academics, government officials, international organisation representatives and business executives from a number of major countries, Asian and  non-Asian. Long regarded awesomely as a 'sleeping' dragon or 'wide' elephant awaiting awakening by the outside world, China has also been regarded, from within its border, as a small innocent lamb waiting for the big wolf (WTO) coming to disturb it (as portrayed on CTV9 in Beijing late in 2001). The topics discussed at the conference dealt however with more wide-ranging and serious academic and policy isssues. These include a Greater China and the emergence of new Asian regionalism to counter the benign neglect of the IMF and other major economic trading blocs on Asia's problems, China's WTO membership and its trade expansion, China's trade, investment and development and its economic relations with other Asian economies. It is these very issues that, if handled or dialogued appropriately, may give rise to regional and international cooperation (economic integration) and mutually beneficial development and growth and increasing living standards, instead of regional or global dominance and mistrust.

In the photo below taken in front of the Fountains Garden in the Meng Wah Complex at the University of Hong Kong are some of the Conference Session Chairs and Speakers: (from left to right) Prof Tran Van Hoa (Director, ASEAN+3 Research Program, Wollongong University), Dr Jean-Pierre A. Verbiest (Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank), Dr Chira Hongladarom (Director, Foundation for International Human Resource Development, Thailand), Prof Karyiu Wong (Conference Co-organiser, RCIE, University of Washington), and Prof Tianshu Chu (East West Center, Hawaii).
 

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Asia Recovery and Reforms: Where Are We Five Years On?
Thammasat University, 28-29 October 2002

 The difficult problems and challenging issues of the Asia recovery from the 1997 crisis and subsequent policies for reforms were discussed recently at an international conference on Asia Recovery and Reforms. The conference was organised by the Faculty of Economics at Thammasat University and took place at the Imperial Queens Park Hotel in Bangkok.

The conference was attended by over 280 national and international economists, bankers, corporate executives, ministerial and other high-ranking government officials from major countries in the Asian region and the International Monetarty Fund and the World Bank. Tran Van Hoa participated in the conference as a session chair, a session discussant and also presented a paper on disturbing issues crying for serious focus in Economic Crisis Management in Asia. At the panel discussions, he also raised a number of questions on the still ineffectiveness, five years on, of international organisations' rescue and reform policies for crisis economies in Asia. More importantly, Tran Van Hoa proposed that serious efforts by these economies' governments, policy-makers, academics and corporate executives should be focused on more relevant and effective solutions even of a plurilateral or regional nature to solve Asia's economic, financial and other crises currently affecting its development and growth. The ASEAN+3 (ASEAN+China, Japan and Korea) free trade agreementwithin the context of regional economic integration is a good example of what major countries in Asia can or should do to restore their growth, to improve their living standards, income distribution and security, and also to reduce inherent and crisis-induced poverty.

In the photo below taken at the Conference Reception Dinner hosted by the Thammasat University Economic Association and with Special Guest Speaker, the Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Imperial Queens Park Hotel in Bangkok are (from left to right) Ms Daranee (Secretary General of the Thammasat University Economic Association), Dr Naris Chaiyasoot (Rector, Thammasat University), Dr Sukanya Nitungkorn (Dean, Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University), Dr Wichai (Bank of Thailand), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Dr Prapasorn (Vice Rector, Thammasat University), and Prof Watchareeya (Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University).
 

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In the photo below at the same reception are (from left to right) Professor Tran Van Hoa and his former student (Dr Euamporn Tasarika, Assistant Professor of Economics at Thammasat University), and Dr Naris Chaiyasoot.
 

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Wollongong University Internationalisation and Off-shore Education in Vietnam
November 2002
 

The role played by Australia and other Western countries in assisting major developing economies in the Asian region to enhance their capacity for economic development, trade and investment liberalisation, and structural reform in the face of increasing globalisation, WTO membership requirement, international competitiveness and crises can be assessed via these countries' numerous aid programs over the years. Vietnam is one of these few developing economies that has also developed its own funded programs for joint vocational and degree education in commerce, business and IT in collaboration especially with Australian post-sedondary and tertiary institutions. The Vietnam Focus and ASEAN+3 Research Program at Wollongong University has, through its Director, Prof Tran Van Hoa, been actively involved in some of these off-shore activities to enhance the capacity and skills standards of Vietnam's government officials, corporrate executives and postgraduate students in this education.

In the photo below taken at the ceremony at the University of Wollongong to sign a Memorandum of Intent for an off-shore one-year Master of Commerce degree course to be jointly delivered in Vietnam by Wollongong and Vietnam Ministry of Trade staff are (from left to right) Prof Tran Van Hoa, Dr Nguyen Thi Thu Nguyet (Rector, Ho Chi Minh City College of Foreign Economic Relations, Vietnam Ministry of Trade). Prof Rob Castle (Pro Vice-Chancellor (Academic), University of Wollongong) and the Hon. Commercial Consul of Vietnam in Sydney, Dr Dinh Thi My Loan.
 

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Asia Pacific Economic Forum (APEF)  International Conference:
Impact of Asia and Terrorist Attack Crises
on New Asian Regionalism, Growth and Trade, Globalisation and the WTO
in Asia and Australia

University of Wollongong, 5-6 July 2002
 

The Asia Pacific Economic Forum (APEF) had its first international conference (conference organisers: Profs Tran Van Hoa and Charles Harvie) at the University of Wollongong in Australia, on 5-6 July 2002.  The conference’s theme was how corporate and government leaderships in Asia and Australia have to deal with and respond to the wide-ranging impact of such crises as the Asia turmoil in 1997 and the 11 September 2001 attacks on their economies’ growth, development, trade, regional economic integration and increasing globalisation and the WTO.

Paper contributors and speakers at the conference consist of international high-level academics and government officials (including a former Dean of Commerce and the Ritchie Professor of Economics from the University of Melbourne, a former Minister of the Economy from the Philippines and a Deputy Minister of Small and Medium-Size Enterprises (SME) from Indonesia) from 7 major Asian countries (China, Indonesia, Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) plus Australia and New Zealand. Participants also include economists from Pakistan, Argentina, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, staff and undergraduate and postgraduate students from the Faculty of Law, and the Schools of Accounting and Finance, Management and Marketing, and Economics and Information Systems. The Hon Dr Stephen Martin, MP, Shadow Minister for Trade and Tourism, senior UOW, Commerce Faculty and Economics Department executives attended the opening ceremony and the UOW and regional media were also present. A piece on the APEF conference appeared in the Illawarra Mercury newspaper on Wednesday 10 July 2002. The conference  papers are in the process of being revised and edited for publication as a book by an internationally well-known publisher.

APEF (also known as the Soohyan Club) is a new international economics group set up in May 2001 at the Kangwon National University, Chunchon, Korea. APEF 2002 President-elect is Prof Tran Van Hoa, of the Department of Economics and Director of Vietnam Focus and ASEAN+3 Research Program, University of Wollongong. APEF 2003 President is to be Prof Fuku Kimura, Keio University, Japan.

APEF’s objectives are to research, discuss and disseminate substantive findings and information on development, growth, trade, regional integration and international economic relations in APEC countries with special focus on East Asia, South East Asia and Oceania.  APEF is a new regional initiative by major Asian countries to rival such organisations as the World Economic Forum (and the World Social Forum) and to promote an Asian identity and characteristics and scope of studies and collaboration.

ASEAN+3 (ASEAN + China, Korea and Japan) and ASEAN+5 (ASEAN+3 plus Australia and New Zealand, a current trade arrangement supported by Prime Ministers John Howard (Australia) and Helen Clark (New Zealand)) are two specific areas of interest to APEF studies.

2001 APEF memberships include academics from high-level universities in the US (Chicago), Canada (Alberta), Japan (Keio and Hitoshibashi), Korea (Korea, Kangwon National and Sungkunkwan), China (Hong Kong and City Hong Kong), Australia, and government officials (Bank of Korea). In 2002, 5 new country memberships were admitted to the APEF: China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

In the photo at the opening ceremony of the APEF international conference on campus at the University of Wollongong are (from left to right) Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Yanyun Zhao (People University of China, Beijing), Prof John Glynn (Dean of Faculty of Commerce, UOW), Prof Margaret Sheil (Pro Vice Chancellor – Research), Dr Nguyen The Dzung (the World Bank, Vietnam), the Hon. Dr Stephen Martin (Member of Parliament for Cunningham and Shadow Minister for Trade and Tourism), Dr Sur Nustrisno (Deputy Minister for the Ministry of Small and Medium-Size Enterprises, Indonesia), Prof H.H. Lee (Kangwon National University, Korea), Prof Peter Lloyd (Ritchie Research Professor and former Dean of Commerce, University of Melbourne), Prof Apichai Puntasen (Thammasat University, Thailand), and Prof Charles Harvie (Director, the SME Research Centre, UOW).
 

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Can the WTO Effectively Enhance World Trade and
Improve Member-Country Welfare?

Gerhard Mercator University, Duisburg, Germany
29-30 June 2002

While globalisation and the WTO have the common objectives of increasing world trade and standards-of-living, the conditions required to achieve these are numerous, burdensome and may be difficult to meet for many member-countries or countries that aspire to be WTO members in the near future. These and other related issues were discussed at a recent international conference at the Gerhard Mercator University in Germany.

Organised jointly by Prof Karyiu Wong (University of Washington in Seattle, USA) and Prof Guenter Heiduk (Gerhard Mercator University - Mercator or Kremer, the inventor of the 16th century Mercator world map-projection system), the conference brought together well-known economic experts world-wide to discuss those important issues, recent advances in international trade theory underlying the WTO objectives and globalisation, the problems faced by WTO members in implementing the organisation’s basic principles, issues in dispute settlements, and WTO and China. The conference organisers plan to publish the presented papers as a book.

Representing the University of Wollongong at the conference was Prof Tran Van Hoa of the ASEAN+3 Research Program. He presented a paper on new (non-CGE/GTAP) econometric methodologies to measure the impact of China’s WTO membership to its investment, consumption and growth, and to comment on fundamental aspects of the WTO contingent protection agreements.

In the photo below are, from left to right, Professors Karyiu Wong, Tran Van Hoa and Guenter Heiduk at the Gerhard Mercator University Central Administration Building.
 

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Problems with Asia Recovery in 2002 and
Lessons in Our Recent Economic Crisis Management

April 2002

During 2000/01, more than a few national and especially international economic and financial analysts, advisers and consultants made a rather bold assertion that, after more than four years of a damaging slowdown in crisis economies in Asia in particular and in other major economic or free-trade blocs in general, there were promising signs of a strong economic recovery in Asia. This prediction did not, however, turn out to be correct as we have come to experience a great deal of old and new problems, economic, financial, social and political, unfolding in crisis economies and beyond since then. The bottom-line effect of all these problems is unfortunately that it has portrayed a mismanagement of economic and financial crises and this has been seriously hampering a real recovery in these economies. What kind of lessons have we learned then from the 1997 Asia crisis and what kind of prescriptions have we appropriately developed or can we develop in order to avoid or manage better similar economic and financial crises in the future?

Some of the major issues associated with or conducive to a real Asia recovery and new ideas to develop better or more appropriate economic and financial crisis management in the years to come are discussed or dealt with in two new books (The Asia Recovery, 2001, and Economic Crisis Management, 2002). Both books were edited by Prof Tran Van Hoa and published by Edward Elgar in the UK and US. The books provide in-depth analysis of major issues and fundamental problems associated with the recovery and plausible alternative remedies for better future crisis management. Since each chapter in the books is written by in-country experts and deals in-depth with each major crisis country’s issues, problems and prospects, it is an assessment of true underlying trends, developments, resources, attitudes and governance, these aspects are often neglected in overall or generalist assessments from an out-of-country perspective.
 
 

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Asia Crisis: What Crisis for China?

May 2002

A recent important book, edited by Prof Tran Van Hoa (University of Wollongong), deals with possible problems and issues facing China after the Asia Crisis of 1997. Some of these problems and issues are being taken up by analysis of the OECD (see for example www.oecd.org/bookshop) and other international institutions or organisations. The book (see below) was published in 2000 by Edward Elgar in the UK and Northampton, Mass., has received wide attention and comments from the international academic community (eg, Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association's e-JEL, JEL on CD and EconLit) . The perception that China was hardly touched deeply by the Asia Crisis is true, but this does not mean that China does not have to face other problems and issues after the Asia turmoil: the challenges of  increasing globalisation, the abandonment or neglect of Asian economies in general by major non-Asia economies or groups of economies after the crisis, China's accession to the WTO, and the responses to China's rise in trade and economic power from other major economies in Asia such as Japan and Korea. These are analysed or foreshadowed in the book China's Trade and Investment After the Asia Crisis.
 

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AUSAID WORK AND FUTURE STRATEGIES
IN VIETNAM AND ASEAN+ RESEARCH PROGRAM
27 March 2002

Prof Tran Van Hoa, Director of the Vietnam and ASEAN+ Research Program at the University of Wollongong, recently attended the 2002 New South Wales-Vietnam Chamber of Commerce Annual General Meeting in Sydney to discuss an executive report on Ausaid work and its future strategies for Vietnam. The AGM was co-ordinated by Mr Laurence Strano, President of the NSW-VN Chamber of Commerce, and the report was presented by the Vietnam Director of AusAID (Mr Bill Costello) in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in Canberra.

Prof Tran Van Hoa’s recent work on Vietnam’s 2002 trade and investment prospects in the climate of a global economic slowdown was published in a Special TET (New Year) Edition of Vietnam Investment Review, a prestigious weekly review by the Ministry of Planning and Investment in Hanoi. It was pointed out at the AGM that this work’s assessment of Vietnam’s achievements and prospects was very similar to the basis of AusAID-DFAT’s planned aid strategies for Vietnam in the next few years.

The AGM function was attended by over 70 business leaders, academics, and diplomats from Vietnam, Pakistan and the Philippines. At the function, Prof Tran Van Hoa also gave an account of the Australian embassy’s early experiences in Hanoi and moved a vote of thanks to AusAID on behalf of the people and government of Vietnam for Australia’s long-standing official development assistance to Vietnam to assist its economic development and poverty reduction plans. This aid is ranked third in Australia’s ODA program (after Papua New Guinea and Indonesia)  and amounts to $60 million a year.

In the photo are, from left to right, Prof Tran Van Hoa, Miss Tran Thuy Nga (a Master of International Business student at Wollongong University), Dr Dinh Thi My Loan (Vietnam’s Commercial Consul and Head of Vietnam Trade Office in Sydney), and Mr Bill Costello (Vietnam Director, AusAID-DFAT in Canberra).
 
 

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ASEAN+ and SME Research Centres at
2002 China Update in Canberra

8 March 2002

The Department of Economics in the Faculty of Commerce at Wollongong University was prominently represented at an important international conference 2002 CHINA UPDATE at the Australian National University on 8 March (International Women Day) 2002. The conference’s objectives were to assess up-to-date economic and reform developments in China (a market of 1300 million people) and the country’s important trade and investment relations and potential with Australia and the rest of the world.

Representing the University of Wollongong were Professors Tran Van Hoa (Director, ASEAN+ Research Program, UOW) and Charles Harvie (Director, SME Research Centre, UOW) who took an active role in debates at the conference. Both are nationally and internationally well-known economic experts and prolific writers on the Chinese economy as well as other major countries, developing and transitional, in South and East Asia and Central and Eastern Europe (see the website www.uow.edu.au/~tvheco/tvh.htm). They are also organising an important forthcoming international conference in Sydney later this year for the newly established international economics and trade society, the Asia Pacific Economic Forum (APEF). APEF was set up in Chunchon, Korea, in May 2001 to deal with major economic and trade issues for the ASEAN+3 (China, Korea and Japan) integration from an APEF perspective. Professor Tran Van Hoa is APEF’s 2002 President-elect.

The 2002 CHINA UPDATE Conference was organised by the China Economy and Business Program at the ANU, whose chairman is Professor Ross Garnaut. Professor Garnaut  was Australia’s first Ambassador to China and the principal proponent of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum concept during the Australian Labor Party Government years in the 1970s-1980s. APEC has become the main annual activity of focus and debates at the ministerial and presidential levels for the 21 member countries around the Pacific Rim. APEC is a regional trade arrangement, a rival to the World Trade Organization (WTO). China (and Taiwan) became a WTO member in December 2001 after more than 15 years of negotiations. Vietnam, another major transition economy in Asia, is expected to be a WTO member in a year of two.

Present at the Conference were members of parliament, academics, business leaders, senior government officials, diplomats and doctoral students. Notably present were the Hon Dr Stephen Martin (an Economics Graduate from UOW and an MP for Cunningham and Shadow Minister for Trade and Tourism), Sir Arvi Parbo (Australia’s top businessman and Chairman of Western Mining Corporation), and senior representatives from, among others, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Embassy of the Philippines, the Embassy of Vietnam, Citigroup, and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

In the photo taken in the Peninsula Foyer (overlooking Lake Burley Griffin) at the National Museum of Australia in Canberra are (from left to right), Ms Sarah Wong (ANU), Dr Mei Wen (RSPAS, ANU), Prof Tran Van Hoa, and Ms Tracy Simms (Marketing Manager, Ganlo Pty Ltd).
 
 

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Vietnam’s New Year Celebration and
UOW’s Vietnam+/ASEAN Research Program

Sydney 9 February 2002

University of Wollongong’s Vietnam+/ASEAN Research Program was represented by its Director, Prof Tran Van Hoa, at the recent celebration of Vietnam’s New Year (Year of the Horse) at the Consulate-General of the Republic of Vietnam in Sydney.

The celebration was not only for the traditional annual Spring festive season observed in Vietnam and most other Asian countries deep-rooted in the lunar calendar and Confucianism, but also for its remarkable achievement in economic development and trade with Australia in 2001. Australia-Vietnam trade reached $2.4 billion in 2001 and expected to be $2.8 billion in 2002. This was attained despite the current global economic downturn which has stunted economic development and growth in many major ‘once miracle’ economies in the Asian region as well as Japan, the world's second largest economy.

The Vietnam+/ASEAN Research Program has been active in promoting this bilateral trade activity with collaboration in research and training with Vietnam’s various government ministries and tertiary institutions, funded either by the Australian Government or the University of Wollongong.

Attending the celebration were business leaders from the Vietnamese-Australian community in NSW, academics and Vietnam’s diplomats stationed in Sydney.

In the photo taken at the Vietnam’s Consulate-General in Sydney were, from left to right, Professor Tran Van Hoa, Dr Dinh Thi My Loan (Vietnam’s Commercial Consul and Head of Vietnam Trade Office in Sydney), Mrs Nguyen Van Tho and the Hon. Nguyen Van Tho, Vietnam’s Consul-General.
 

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Focus on e-commerce, e-business and e-trade
in ASEAN+3 economies

19-20 November 2001

E-commerce, e-business and e-trade and their other related areas including B2B, B2C, B2G, regulation, protection and uptake have recently been discussed at a conference organised by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) on 19-20 November 2001 in Melbourne, Australia. These are the current issues relevant not only to Australia but also to other major economies in Asia who are trying to adapt and reform in order to catch up or restructure to deal with emerging problems in economic development and growth, expanding borderless trade, and increasing globalisation.

Prof Tran Van Hoa, Director of the Vietnam+ Research Program at the University of Wollongong, attended the conference to exchange ideas and to gather experiences on e-commerce, e-business and e-trade and also on relevant and effective ways to assist major developing economies in Asia (such as Vietnam, China and Thailand) in capacity-building and infrastructure setting-up in these areas. A major training project on e-commerce skills standards and operability for e-experts in these countries with expected AusAID-APEC funding is being prepared by him in collaboration with Vietnam Ministry of Trade, the ACCC and other educational institutions in China and Thailand during 2002.

In the photo are an ACCC Commissioner on IT, Dr David Cousins, and Prof Tran Van Hoa, in the e-commerce conference hall at the Melbourne Conference Centre, South Bank, Australia.
 
 

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VIETNAM+PLUS RESEARCH PROGRAM:
PROMOTING INTERNATIONAL NETWORK, COMMERCE RESEARCH COLLABORATION AND EDUCATION IN ASIA

December 2001

The international network, research collaboration and education standing of the Faculty of Commerce at the University of Wollongong were further significantly enhanced recently in two major Asian transition countries, namely China and Vietnam, with two important lectures (1-4 December 2001) and a major conference (19 December 2001) organised and delivered by senior staff in the Department of Economics on current top world economic and commerce issues. During the lecturing visits, important areas and issues on future research and education collaboration were also discussed.

In China, the first lecture was on Implications for Asia and Australia of the ASEAN+China Free Trade Agreement (which was endorsed by the (10-member) ASEAN Leaders at their 7th ASEAN Summit and 5th ASEAN+3 Summit in Brunei on 5 November 2001) and given by Prof Tran Van Hoa, Coordinator of the Vietnam and ASEAN+ Research Program in the Faculty’s International Business Research Institute (IBRI), to the prestigious Financial Policy Research Centre of the People University of China in Beijing.

The second lecture was on Measuring the Impact of China’s World Trade Organisation Membership (WTO 143rd member, which was endorsed by the WTO at its 4th Ministerial Meeting in Doha on 11 November 2001 and ratified by China on 11 December 2001) on its Investment and Growth and also delivered by Prof Tran van Hoa to the Aetna School of Management of the Shanghai Jiaotong University. Shanghai Jiaotong University is China’s top university and the alter mater of China’s current President, Jiang Zeming, as well as other leaders of China’s government departments, state-owned-enterprises and private businesses.

In Vietnam, Prof Tran Van Hoa also convened the International Conference on Competitiveness and Globalisation in collaboration with Vietnam’s Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) of the powerful Ministry of Planning and Investment. The conference had the participation of staff of the Department of Economics (Prof Charles Harvie), Thammasat University (Prof Chaiyuth Punyasavatsut) in Thailand, Vietnam’s Ministry of Planning and Investment, and Ministry of Industry.  The conference took place at CIEM in Hanoi and was nationally televised on VTV1 and widely reported in Saigon News and Vietnam Investment Review, a monthly English language publication in Vietnam with links to Australia’s News Corp.

These high-profile activities by University of Wollongong's internationally well-known senior academics with China’s top-rung universities and Vietnam’s economic policy think tank attracted a large number of attendants (academic staff, postgraduate students, government officials and corporate executives) as well as  several international students from the University of Wollongong who were on holiday or on study fieldtrip in China and Vietnam during the southern Summer 2001.
 

In the photo below on RUC’s Haidian campus are (on the left) Prof Yulu Chen, Vice-Dean of the School of Finance and Director of China's Financial Policy Research Centre of the People University of China in Beijing, and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
 

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In the photo below at a reception in the Faculty Club of Shanghai Jiaotong University in China are (from left to right) Ms Zong Ming Tang (Lecturer in Management), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Huang Chen (Aetna School of Management). and Prof Xu Zhou (Director of Minhang District Campus, Aetna School of Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University).
 

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In the third photo at the Opening Ceremony of the Conference on Competitiveness and Globalisation at the headquarter of CIEM, Ministry of Planning and Investment, in Hanoi, Vietnam, are (from left to right) Prof Charles Harvie, Prof Chaiyuth Punyasavatsut (Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand), Ms Sonya McKay (a lawyer and Australia's Green Party MP Candidate), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Dr Le Dang Doanh (President of CIEM and Adviser to MPI Minister), and Dr Dinh Van An (incoming President of CIEM).
 

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VIETNAM+PLUS RESEARCH PROGRAM:

8TH ANNIVERSARY AT THE ICTC, VIETNAM MINISTRY OF TRADE
AND THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY (ECONOMICS) LINK

Hanoi and Bangkok, October 2001

The Director of Vietnam Research Program at the University of Wollongong, Prof Tran Van Hoa,  recently  attended the 8th anniversary of the International Consulting and Training Centre (ICTC), Ministry of Trade, in Hanoi. The link was established by Prof Tran Van Hoa and the Executive Vice-Director of ICTC (Dr Pham Quang Thao) on 1 October 1993, the day the ICTC was officially set up within the then Research Institute for Foreign Economic Relations (RIFER) headed by the Director-General Prof Dr Le Nhat Thuc.

During its 8 years of operation, the ICTC, with the collaboration from foreign experts and institutions, especially the University of Wollongong, has established an international reputation in developing and promoting foreign economic relations to assist the Government of Vietnam in its development programs. The collaboration between the ICTC and the Vietnam Research Program at the University of Wollongong has produced a number of books and numerous other publications (both in English and Vietnamese) focusing on trade and investment development issues in the country. Several conferences and training and specialist courses have also been organised to enhance skills standards of government officials in free market principles and operations, competitiveness and globalisation.

In the photo taken in front of the ICTC Activity Picture Gallery on 1 October 2001 at the headquarter of the ICTC in Hanoi are (from left) Dr Nguyen The Hung (Director of ICTC), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Miss Thu Huong (ICTC Executive Assistant), and Dr Ho Trung Thanh (Vice-Director of ICTC).
 

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During his field-trip to Thailand and Vietnam, Prof Tran Van Hoa also visited Thammasat University in Bangkok to discuss with staff in the Faculty of Economics on further links and collaboration between the University of Wollongong and Thammasat on post-1997 crisis economics research and e-commerce courses and IT training for major developing countries in Asia (such as China, Thailand and Vietnam).

The initial link and collaboration with Thammasat University were established in 1989 by Prof Tran Van Hoa (UOW) with the collaboration from  Profs Apichai Puntasen and Siri Chutikul (Thammasat) and since, various research and teaching programs have been organised and supported by successive Deans of Economics there. These programs were funded by international and national organizations such as the Ford Foundation, Australia’s Department of Employment and Youth Affairs, and Thailand’s Universities Commission.

In the photo taken at the Faculty of Economics at Thammasat University are
Dr Sukanya Nitungkorn (Dean of Economics) and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
 

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AUSAID AND UNIVERSITY OF WOLLONGONG COLLABORATION

IN TRAINING IN COMPETITION LAW FOR VIETNAM GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS

Hanoi 3-4 July 2001

A major international workshop on competition policy with the participation of well-known experts from Australia, Korea and Vietnam was held early in July 2001 at the campus of NATI (National Advanced Training Institute), Ministry of Trade, in Hanoi. The workshop was the second in the project Anti-trust Law and Competition Policy in Vietnam, led by Prof Tran Van Hoa, Department of Economics and Director, Vietnam Research Program, at the University of Wollongong, and funded by AusAID-APEC during 2000/2001.  Corporate sponsors of the workshop’s activities include Siemens USA.

The workshop was opened by His Excellency Do Nhu Dinh, Vice Minister of Trade, attended by a number of Directors-General of Vietnam’s MOT and other ministries, and by Directors and Senior Experts of state-owned and private corporations. Representatives from the Australian Embassy were also present.  Speakers at the 2-day workshop were senior academics from the University of Melbourne, University of Wollongong, Kangwon National University (Korea), Korea Industrial Research Institute (Chunchon, Korea), and senior officials from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), Vietnam Competition Law Drafting Committee and Vietnam think-tank, the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI).

The workshop was nationally televised by VTV2 and VTV3 (Hanoi) television stations in two prime-viewing slots to an audience of about 80 million.

Competition Policy is a priority area of APEC, an Australian initiative with 21 of the world’s most important economies being members. Capacity building and knowledge sharing and transfer in the Competition Policy area in developing economies in Asia are two focuses of the 2001 APEC action plan for the next two years. Vietnam and similar economies urgently need training in this area to facilitate their accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and also to benefit from their trade and investment liberalisation programs. The project focuses on the theory and practice and experience of these issues to assist Vietnam officials’ capacity building and in drafting its competition law. It also  provides plausible and suitable competition models not only for Vietnam but also for other APEC countries in Asia that plan to introduce anti-trust law and competition policy to more effectively deal with an increasingly complex globalised market.

 

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In the above photo at NATI reception hall on the opening day of the workshop are (from left) Prof Hyun-Hoon Lee (KNU), Prof Tran Van Hoa, Prof Peter Lloyd (University of Melbourne), H.E. Vice Minister of Trade Do Nhu Dinh, former ACCC Deputy Chairman, Mr Hank Spier, Prof Chung Koo Mo (KIRI), and Prof Charles Harvie (UOW).


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In the photo (above) at NATI Conference Centre after the round-table discussion on Vietnam Competition Law Draft are (from left), Mr Hank Spier, Prof Tran Van Hoa, Vice Minister/Deputy Secretary General of Vietnam Department of Posts And Telecommunications, Ms Tran Ngoc Binh,  and Prof Peter Lloyd.

 

ASIA-AUSTRALIA-EUROPE ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION LINK

Paris 15 June 2001

Prof Tran Van Hoa, Department of Economics and Director, Vietnam Research Program, at the University of Wollongong, visited in June 2001 the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII), Prime Minister’s Department, in Paris, France, to discuss with senior staff there on its work and activities related to strengthening the long-awaited economic cooperation link between Asia and the European Union. The visit was part of his field-trip to present a paper on Bayesian Analysis of Welfare Policy in Developing Economies at the international conference on Applied Stochastic Modelling and Data Analysis (ASMDA) organized by the Universite Technologie de Compiegne in the town of the same name in Flanders, an historic site featured prominently in both World Wars I and II.

The visit was important in two aspects. First, while North America has played an important role in assisting growth in many Asian economies in the past three decades or so, the EU has focused chiefly on its intra-territorial problems, monetary and political (eg, the EU and Germany reunification), and lagged behind its NA partner in establishing crucial links with Asia. Second, while NA and the EU seemed to have been two major markets to alleviate somewhat the damages (in Asian exports) of the 1997 Asia Crisis, the EU has not taken advantage of this situation to improve its link with Asia. ASEM was meant to be a belated EU answer to this neglect.

During his visit, Prof Tran Van Hoa met with CEPII Deputy Director, Mr Michel Fouquin, and specialist staff on Vietnam, and very useful interaction and discussions were carried out on the above-mentioned issues especially in relation to major ASEAN economies such as Vietnam where France still has an important stake resulting from its 100-year protectorate of the country.
 

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In the photo above at the CEPII headquarter in Paris are (from left) the Deputy Director of CEPII, Mr Michel Fouquin, and Prof Tran Van Hoa.
 

Post-1997 Asia Economic Crisis Development:
Why Can't Asia Go It Alone?
ASEAN and North East Asia Economic Link and
Asian Monetary Fund Initiative

11-12 May 2001, Seoul, Korea
(by Tran Van Hoa)

A strong link in high-level academic economic research between well-known economists at the University of Wollongong and the major countries in North East Asia (namely, China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea) was established recently at a Conference on New Regionalism in East Asia, taking place at the Shilla Hotel in Seoul and at the Kangwon National University, Chunchon, in Korea, during 11-12 May 2001.

The Conference’s theme was vision and strategy in economic regionalism in North East Asia after the damaging 1997 Asia crisis and the subsequent ineffective rescue packages by the International Monetary Fund, and their impact on the US, the European Union, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC). The Conference was jointly co-organised and co-sponsored by Korea Industrial Research Institute (Sungkyunkwan University), the Institute for Industrial Research (Kangwon National University), Faculty of Economics at Keio University (Japan), and the International Business Research Institute (IBRI) at the University of Wollongong in Australia. Attending the Conference were university academics, business economists and government officials from Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, and the US. The Conference’s activities and proceedings were widely reported in national mass media.

Representing the University of Wollongong were Professor Tran Van Hoa, Director of the Vietnam Research Program and Professor Charles Harvie, both of the Department of Economics and the IBRI, who also acted as session chairs and moderators, discussants and presented invited papers.

At the conclusion of the Conference and at the initiative of two Conference co-organizers (Charles Harvie and Hyun-Hoon Lee), a new international economic society ‘The Asia Pacific Economic Forum (unofficially known as the Soohiyan Club)’ was established by majority voting to develop and promote further APEF initiatives and activities. Professor Tran Van Hoa was unanimously elected the Foundation President, with Professor Inchul Kim (Korea) being Acting President for 2001, and Professor Fukumai Kimura (Japan), Treasurer. An international conference on North East Asia, APEC and CER (Australia and New Zealand) will be held in Wollongong in 2002.

In the photo at the conference reception at the Shilla Hotel in Seoul are (from left) Professor Inchul Kim (Director, Korea Industrial Research Institute), Professor Young Ho Kim (Sungkyunkwan University and Korea’s former Minister of Commerce, Industry and Energy, who, while in office,  first proposed the ASEAN+3 initiative), Professor Tran Van Hoa and Professor Chung Mo Koo (Kangwon National University).
 

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MEDIA RELEASE

University OF Wollongong, Australia
6 November 2000

WARNING ON LONG-TERM ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

The Asian financial crisis is not yet over and its real recovery is nowhere in sight, according to an analysis by University of Wollongong well-known scholars. The analysis forms the basis of a series of seven books on the 1997 Asia meltdown and its aftermath as well as on trade and investment in Asian transition economies launched recently by Member for Cunningham and the Shadow Minister for Defence, Dr Stephen Martin.

According to Professor Tran Van Hoa and Professor Charles Harvie of the Department of Economics and the International Business Research Institute (IBRI) at the University of Wollongong, the Asian crisis has generated economic and political turmoil and untold hardship for more than 200 million people in the once miracle Asian economies. Japan was seen as an economy (the second largest in the world) that has contributed to the slowdown and equally suffered the consequences.

Australia escaped the short-term effects of the crisis, but the long-term impact upon trade, investment and economic relations has not been adequately studied. Professor Tran Van Hoa's analysis reveals complex issues facing policy-makers in a culturally and politically diverse region. The religious extremism and separatism in Malaysia and Indonesia, the bankruptcy of Korea’s giant Daewoo and the impeachment of President Estrada in the Philippines in November 2000 underscored the long-term impact findings of this analysis.

'International policy-makers such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank must understand this complexity in their prescriptions for effective outcomes. Australia should also take these predictions seriously and consider its position and long-term relationship with neighbouring Asia in a growing globalised economy,' Professor Tran Van Hoa said.
Professor Tran Van Hoa said the pro-Europe trade policy of the present government might be detrimental to Australia's long-term relationship with Asia.
‘The recent rebuff of CER (Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations) wishing to join the Association of South-East Asian Nations at a recent ASEAN meeting in Thailand is a point in focus to ponder’ he said.

The launch at the University bookshop was well attended by the University’s top executives and numerous staff and students. In the photo taken at the launch of the books are (see photo below, from left to right, standing) the Hon Dr Stephen Martin, MP, Shadow Minister for Defence, Deputy Vice Chancellor, Professor Peter Robinson, and Vice Chancellor, Professor Gerard Sutton, and (from left to right, sitting) Professor Tran Van Hoa and Professor Charles Harvie, with a collection of the launched books.
 

At the Launch of his Six New Books on Asia and the Asia Crisis
in November 2000

"Warning on the long-term impact of the Asia crisis"

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APEC WORKSHOP AND
NATIONAL DAY AND FEDERATION DAY IN HANOI
17-18 January 2001

A joint international APEC workshop organised by Professor Tran Van Hoa of Wollongong University (Australia) took place on 17-18 January 2001 at the campus of the National Advanced Training Institute (NATI), Ministry of Trade, Hanoi, Vietnam. The workshop coincided with the celebration of Australia Day and the Centenary of Australia’s Federation which the Australian Embassy held in Hanoi in the same week. Over one hundred guests and officials from Vietnam’s Ministry of Trade and other ministries as well as leaders of state-owned-enterprises and business in the country participated in the workshop. Attending the opening ceremony were Australian Embassy and AusAID staff, ministerial representatives from MOT, and guest speakers from Australia and Korea.  The ceremony was nationally broadcast on Vietnam Television VTV2.

The workshop is part of an important nationally competitive training project Development and Promotion of Vietnam Trade: The Role of Anti-Trust Law and Competition Policy, funded by Australia’s AusAID-APEC for the financial year 2000/2001. The project focuses on Vietnam’s current top priority in trade and investment development and liberalisation and in preparing itself to join the World Trade Organization. The project is another significant programme in the long-standing cooperation and assistance between Australia and Vietnam going back over four decades.

The project is led by Professor Tran Van Hoa, an international high-profile expert and author of numerous books on Vietnam’s economic, trade and social development, and Director of the Vietnam Focus Research Program (IBRI member) at the University of Wollongong (Australia). It has the collaboration of other top-level trade and economics specialists from the University of Wollongong, the University of Melbourne, the National Kangwon University in Korea, the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), Vietnam’s Competition Law Drafting Committee, and other divisions of the Ministry of Trade. Australia’s Competition and Consumer Commission (the country’s paramount regulatory and supervisory organisation in competition and fair trading as well as international trade) is also a participant in the project’s training activities.
 

At the Australian Embassy's Celebration of Australia Day (January 2001) in Hanoi
(With Professor Peter Lloyd (Former Dean of Commerce, Melbourne University) and
H.E Michael Mann, Australian Ambassador to Vietnam)

"Australia-Vietnam Relations: Centenary of Federation in Vietnam"
 

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AusAID-APEC workshop and Australia Day in Hanoi, Vietnam

At the National Advanced Training Institute (January 2001)
Ministry of Trade, Hanoi

"Competitiveness and Drafting Competition Law in Vietnam"

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At the London School of Economics Workshop on
Financial Crises and Global Governance
October 2000

"200 million people made poor in Asia"

With Ann Petitfor (Director of Jubilee 2000) and Lord Meghnad Desai
 

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SUMMARY BIOGRAPHY


Professor Tran Van Hoa holds higher degrees from the University of Western Australia and Monash University, Victoria, Australia. He has taught widely at universities in Australia, Asia and the US and spent many of his sabbaticals and visits at major international research instititutes, universities and government agencies around the world [(eg, Cambridge University (UK), the London School of Economics (UK), CORE at the Universite Catholique de Louvain (Belgium), Stanford University (USA), Columbia University (USA), the University of Southern California (USA), the University of Florida (USA), National Economics University (Vietnam), Foreign Trade University (Vietnam), Vietnam Institute for Trade (Vietnam), INSEE (France), CEPII (Prime Minister’s Office, France), Thammasat University (Thailand), Chulalongkorn University (Thailand) and the People University of China (Beijing)].

Dr Tran Van Hoa has published 17 books and over 88 refereed articles in the major applied and theoretical areas of economics, business, economic development, finance, energy, foreign investment, international trade and econometrics in Australian and international professional economics, finance, and statistics journals, and over 130 other discussion papers and commissioned reports. He is listed in Who’s Who in the World, Who’s Who in Asia and Pacific Nations, Who’s Who in Science and Engineering, 2000 Outstanding People of the 20th Century and in Dictionary of International Biography.

He also is a Director of T&M Enterprises P/L (Australia) which provides research, education, training and consulting services. In the past few years, he has been a consultant to a number of organizations and authorities in Australia and various ministries in Thailand and Vietnam.
 
 

  SELECTED LIST
OF SIGNIFICANT JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS

by

TRAN VAN HOA

Tran Van Hoa, "Consumer Demand and Welfare Indicators: A Comparative Study for the United Kingdom and Australia", Economica, Vol.36 (1969), pp. 409-425.

Tran Van Hoa, "Additive Preferences and Cost of Living Index: An  Empirical Study of the Australian Consumer's welfare", Economic Record, Vol. 45 (1969), pp. 432-440.

Tran Van Hoa (with Fels, A.), "Causal Relationships in Australian Wage Inflation and Minimum Award Rates", Economic Record, Vol. 57 (1981), pp. 23-34.

Tran Van Hoa, "The Integrability of Generalized Working Models", Economics Letters, Vol. 13 (1983), pp. 101-104.

Tran Van Hoa, "The Inadmissibility of the Stein Estimator in Normal Multiple Regression Equations", Economics Letters, Vol. 19 (1985), pp. 39-42.

Perkins, J.O.N. and Tran Van Hoa, The Macroeconomic Mix in the Industrialised World, London: Macmillan, 1985.

Tran Van Hoa, "Econometric Tests of the Macromix Theory", in Perkins, J.O.N. and Tran Van Hoa, The Macroeconomic Mix of the Industrialised World, London: Macmillan, 1985.

Tran Van Hoa, "The Inadmissibility of the 2SLS Estimator in some Linear Structural Equations", Economics Letters, Vol. 21 (1986), pp. 337-341.

Tran Van Hoa, "Some Dominance Theorems on the Double-k Class Estimator in Linear Models", Economics Letters, Vol. 22 (1987), pp. 237-240.

Tran Van Hoa (with Perkins, J.O.N.), "Towards the Formulation and Testing of a More General Theory of Macroeconomic Policy", Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv (Review of World Economics), Vol. 123 (1987), pp. 199-215.

Tran Van Hoa (with Chaturvedi, A.), "The Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for the Uniform Dominance of the Two-Stage Stein Estimators", Economics Letters, Vol. 28 (1988), pp. 351-355.

Tran Van Hoa, "System Estimation of Generalized Working Models: A Semiparametric Approach", Economics Letters, Vol. 31 (1989), pp. 363-366.

Tran Van Hoa, "Economic Inequality and Consumer Behaviour: Theory and Applications", in Tran Van Hoa and Bewley, R.F. (eds.), Contributions to Consumer Demand and Econometrics: Essays in Honour  of Henri Theil, London: Macmillan, Chapter 6, pp. 105-122, 1992.

Tran Van Hoa, "Modelling Output Growth: A New Approach", Economics Letters, Vol. 38 (1992), pp. 279-284.

Tran Van Hoa, "A New and General Approach to Modelling Short-Term Interest Rates: With Application to Australian Data 1962-1990", Proceedings of the Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 16 (1992), pp. 327-335.

Tran Van Hoa, "The Mixture Properties of the 2SHI Estimators in Linear Regression  Models", Statistics and Probability Letters, Vol.  16 (1993), pp.111-115.

Tran Van Hoa (with A Chaturvedi), "Performance of the 2SHI Estimator under the Generalized Pitman  Nearness Criterion", Communications in Statistics (Theory and Method), Vol. 26, Issue 5, 1997, pp. 1227-1238.

Tran Van Hoa (1997), "Improved Forecasts of Investment and Growth in Some Major ASEAN Economies: An Economy-wide Approach", Journal of Economics and Finance (Proceedings), Vol. 21, pp. 271-280.

Tran Van Hoa (with H Hasegawa and A Chaturvedi), "Bayesian Unit Root Test in Normal AR(1) Model", Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 21, No. 3, 2000, pp. 261-280.

Tran Van Hoa (2001), "Modelling and Forecasting Investment in Korea for Policy and Crisis Studies: A New Multisectoral Approach", Journal of the Korean Economy, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2001, pp. 113-135.

Tran Van Hoa (2002), “New Asian Regionalism: Empirical Foundation and Growth Prospects for ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement”, Journal of the Korean Economy, Vol. 3, No. 2, 2002, pp. 317-343.

Tran Van Hoa (2002), “Economic Crisis Management in Asia”, Social Sciences Research Journal (India). Vol. 10, No. 3, 2002, pp. 21-38.

Tran Van Hoa (2004), "Australia-Thailand Free Trade Agreement: Challenges and  Opportunities for Bilateral Trade Policy and Closer Economic Relations", Thammasat Economic Journal (Thailand), Vol. 22, No. 1, 2004, pp. 113-137.

Tran Van Hoa (2004), "Korea’s Trade, Growth of Trade and the World Economy in Post-crisis ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement: An Econometric and Policy Analysis", Journal of the  Korean Economy, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 73-108.

Tran Van Hoa (2005), “New Asian Regionalism: Econometric Evidence on the Impact of the ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement on Its Member Countries”, Journal of Quantitative Economics ((India), in press.

Tran Van Hoa (2005),  “Gender and Growth in Major Asian Economies”, Thammasat Economic Journal, in press

Tran Van Hoa (2005), “Income Convergence and Growth of Asian Regional Trade: Empirical Evidence for ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement”, Chulalongkorn Journal of Economics (Thailand), in press.

Tran Van Hoa (2005). “New Asian Regionalism and ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement: Theoretical and Empirical Foundation, Policy Challenges and Growth Prospects”, Chulalongkorn Journal of Economics (Thailand), in press
 
 
 
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